In one of our recent articles we provided some helpful tips for successful sports betting, and one of the main points that we raised was how important it was to get the best odds possible.
Hopefully the idea of getting the best odds resonates with people. It's like any profession or game, you want to maximize your income whenever you can. If you were playing a game of poker, you would raise to try and win as much as you can when you have the best hand right? Don't let your opponents off cheaply! It should be obvious to all punters that you want to get the best bang for your buck whenever you bet. It’s money in your pocket!
Let’s look into the maths behind why it’s so important. Say we’re having a bet on a horse called CrazyHorse. It’s the favourite and is being offered at odds of 3.00 on TAB.
Let’s say you bet $100 on the nose at the TAB and let’s assume CrazyHorse wins the race 30% of the time.
30% of the time you win $200.
70% of the time you lose $100.
The combined total of those bets is a -$100 loss, so you’re not actually getting the correct odds for that play to be a long-term profitable bet. This is commonly referred to as getting “unders”.
Now if we were smart, we would have an online account at Betfair. If you check out our Betfair Australia review, you will see they generally have the best odds of any online sports betting site, but you do have to factor in that you pay a commission on your wins.
Betfair have a market on the same race and are offering odds of 4.00 for CrazyHorse. How does that change the projections for your $100 bet?
30% of the time you win $300.
70% of the time you lose $100.
Now suddenly this bet has a long term projection of +$200 profit (minus commission). So you are getting “overs” – that is you’re getting a price that’s over the true odds for the outcome.
With sports betting, it’s not always about picking winners. It’s about finding value in bets that are over the true odds. Even though a horse race is only run once, if you look at your betting with a long-term mindset, and continue to make bets that have profitable long-term projections, then you will come out the other side as a profitable sports bettor.
The first step to achieve that success is to make sure that you always get the best odds possible. Do not be satisfied with the TAB. They usually offer terrible odds to what is available online, and as you can see in the above example, you can have the same bets on the same horse, with one bet (TAB) a losing play and the other bet (Betfair) a profitable one, regardless of whether CrazyHorse wins the race or not.
Bet smart. Before you bet, make sure you check out the reviews of the various online sports betting sites on the top right of the page.
