The final match for AFL Round 21 will see finals-bound Fremantle host a disappointing Carlton at Optus Stadium. The first bounce will be at 5:10pm AEST and here is our match preview and betting tips for the Dockers vs Blues matchup.
Continue reading for our best bet, player prop, and Same Game Multi for Fremantle vs Carlton, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Fremantle vs Carlton Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 21
Dockers Peaking at the Right Time
Fremantle is finding form at the right time of year and looks destined to play finals footy in 2025. Since losing to Collingwood in Round 9, the Dockers have won nine of their past 10 matches, including a win over Collingwood in Round 19. The Western Derby last week was a walk in the park for Fremantle as they defeated West Coast by 49 points. Hayden Young was tactically subbed out of the game, amassing a quick 23 disposals and kicking three-straight goals in just 57% time on ground to walk away with the Glendinning–Allan Medal. Andrew Brayshaw racked up 32 possessions and Michael Frederick was excellent up forward booting four goals.
More Punishment for the Blues?
Carlton is already looking ahead to the 2026 season, with this one all but done and dusted. It is disappointing considering they had one of the easier fixtures for the year and will not see September action, but they can still play for pride. Coach Michael Voss could be gone before next season and will be hoping for a late season resurgence. The Blues showed second-half fight against the Hawks last week, kicking six goals in that time after just three in the opening half. They went down by 24 points, but George Hewett tried his heart out with 25 disposals and eight tackles. Three outs for the Blues this week with Sam Docherty retiring, and both Charlie Curnow and Adam Cerra injured.
The Stats That Matter
Fremantle will have a ruck advantage with Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy taking on Tom De Koning and Marc Pittonet. The Dockers average 42.2 hit-outs per game, which is fifth in the competition. In contrast, the Blues average 34.5 which is 16th. The Blues butcher the ball heading inside 50 a lot, and rank second-worst in disposal efficiency at 70.2%.
One aspect Carlton does well is contested possessions, averaging 138.1 per game which is second in the comp. The question will be whether they can successfully hit targets without turning the ball over in traffic.
Dockers or Blues? Here’s Our Fremantle vs Carlton Tip
If head-to-head records was the metric for today’s tip, then Carlton would be incredible value, but a year, or even a week sometimes, is a long time in footy. The Blues have won seven of the past eight encounters against the Dockers, including a 73-63 victory when the sides last met at Gather Round in 2024.
Fremantle has the form on the board and should easily handle Carlton. Despite no Curnow or Cerra, I think the Blues are playing for some pride and their second half against the Hawks was promising. With a big line of 37.5, we must side with the underdog to keep it a six-goal or less margin.
Carlton +37.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Fremantle vs Carlton Prop Bet
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Brayshaw 30+ Disposals
Andrew Brayshaw is having a very good 2025, averaging 27.8 disposals per game. He picked up 32 disposals against West Coast and was able to amass 38 against Carlton last season. Prior to that encounter, he had 32 disposals and looks primed for a big possession game once again.
Andrew Brayshaw 30+ disposals
$1.85
Fremantle vs Carlton Same Game Multi
Fremantle Win: Short but sweet, Fremantle should handle Carlton in this match.
Andrew Brayshaw 25+ Disposals: Expecting Brayshaw to have a big game as mentioned above, but 25 is a little safer if he falls a few possessions short of 30.
Hayden Young 20+ Disposals: Returning from injury, Hayden Young played limited game time but was still best afield. He is listed as starting in the middle and should rack up plenty of touches.
Patrick Voss 2+ Goals: Starting to become a crucial goalkicker for the Dockers, and with Josh Treacy likely to receive the attention of premier defender Jacob Weitering, Voss could be the beneficiary to kick multiple goals.
SGM Odds: $3.25 with Ladbrokes
Fremantle vs Carlton Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 3rd August
Time: 5:10pm AEST
Location: Optus Stadium
Weather: Showers, 17 degrees
Odds: Fremantle ($1.09) vs Carlton ($7.50)
Line: Fremantle -37.5
Points: 155.5
Where to Watch Fremantle vs Carlton?
You can watch the Dockers vs Blues on Kayo Sports.
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