The penultimate match of the 2025 AFL season is the Preliminary Final on Saturday night between Collingwood and Brisbane at the MCG. It’s a rematch of the 2023 Grand Final and it should be an epic contest, as the two most recent premiers go head-to-head.
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Collingwood vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL First Preliminary Final
Ageing Pies Need to Cash In
The Collingwood Magpies head into the 2025 Preliminary Final with a mission statement that's been clear all season: this is their time to strike. They've had a strong campaign, finishing fourth on the ladder with a 16-7 record, and their form has been impressive in the lead-up to September. While they had a few stumbles late in the home-and-away season, including a loss to the very same Brisbane side they face, their qualifying final victory against Adelaide was a testament to their hardened, miserly defence, which has been the best in the league for points against.
The Pies' success is built on the shoulders of a seasoned and experienced group. Veterans like Steele Sidebottom, Scott Pendlebury, and Jamie Elliott have been instrumental, and their presence in the biggest moments of a game continues to set Collingwood apart. For this core group, the window to secure another premiership is narrowing, and they know it. After falling short in two of their three preliminary finals under coach Craig McRae, there is an added sense of urgency. This isn't just a finals campaign; it's a legacy-defining run for a team that has been on the cusp of greatness for several seasons.
Lions Depth Passing the Test
On the other side of the ledger, the Brisbane Lions are a team with a point to prove. The reigning premiers have endured a challenging season, particularly with a string of significant injuries. The absence of a two-time Brownlow medallist in Neale and a key forward in Hipwood has forced the Lions to dig deep into their list. They have been without Tom Doedee, Keidean Coleman, and Lincoln McCarthy for much of the season, and their depth has been tested to the extreme.
Despite the setbacks, the Lions have found a way to win. After a flat performance in their qualifying final loss to Geelong, they roared back to life in a dominant semi-final win against bitter rivals Gold Coast. It was a reminder of their devastating scoring power when their midfield and forward line click. Led by the likes of Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley, and Will Ashcroft who have shouldered the midfield load in Neale's absence, the Lions are a resilient bunch. For a team that is aiming to become the first to reach three consecutive Grand Finals since Hawthorn a decade ago, winning this preliminary final would be a remarkable achievement and a powerful statement about their team-first mentality and determination to cement a legacy.
Recent H2H History
This match is more than just a Preliminary Final; it's a rematch of the 2023 Grand Final, an instant classic that went down to the wire with Collingwood prevailing by just four points. The head-to-head history between these two clubs has been fascinating. Collingwood had a four-game winning streak against Brisbane dating back to that Grand Final, including a massive 52-point thumping in Round 6 of this season. However, the Lions finally broke that drought in Round 21 with a comprehensive 27-point victory at the MCG, a win that will give them immense confidence coming into this do-or-die clash at the same venue.
Who Wins? Here’s Our Lions vs Magpies Tip
Given the history and the stakes, this is poised to be an incredibly tight contest. Collingwood's defensive prowess against Brisbane's scoring might without their key stars will be the battle that defines the match. While the Magpies are a formidable force at the MCG and come into the game rested, the Lions are playing with a newfound belief and the added motivation of avenging their 2023 Grand Final loss. This is a 50/50 match that could go either way, a preliminary final worthy of the occasion. Ultimately, the Lions' ability to overcome adversity and their recent win at the MCG should be enough for them to cover the +6.5 spread in what will be a close, nail-biting encounter.
Brisbane +6.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Collingwood vs Brisbane Prop Bet, Cobra Kai
Our Best Prop Bet: Lohmann 2+ Goals
After a frustrating, injury-interrupted first half of his 2025 campaign, Lohmann has finally gotten a good run at it and his form has completely turned around as a result. He kicked three goals against the Suns last week and has now kicked at least two in four straight games, as well as at least one in each of the last nine matches he’s started. Lohmann was near BOG in the Grand Final last year with his four goals and has now kicked 12 goals from his last four matches. Big game player.
Kai Lohmann 2+ Goals
$2.35
Collingwood vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Kai Lohmann Score Anytime: As mentioned above, he’s kicked a goal in each of the last nine matches where he’s started.
Cam Rayner Score Anytime: Was an absolute bull against the Suns last week where he was breaking tackles for fun. Another big game player that’s built for finals. He’s kicked at least one goal in 13 of his last 15 matches.
Jordan De Goey Score Anytime: The theme here is clearly big game players. De Goey was terrific in the Qualifying Final win against the Crows and is back to his explosive best. He’s kicked at least one goal in seven of his last nine matches.
Will Ashcroft 25+ Disposals: The 2024 Norm Smith Medalist enters this weekend in fantastic form. 28 touches and two goals against the Suns last week and has racked up 25+ disposals in eight of his last nine outings.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.40 at Dabble
Collingwood vs Brisbane Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, September 20th 2025
Time: 5:15pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Weather: 13 degrees, Mostly Cloudy
Odds: Collingwood $1.67 vs Brisbane $2.20
Line: Collingwood -6.5
Points: 163.5
Where to Watch Collingwood vs Brisbane
You can watch the Magpies vs Lions clash on Channel 7 or live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back In our Collingwood vs Brisbane Tips at Dabble!
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