Carlton will be looking to end a four game losing streak when they face off against Melbourne in the AFL on Saturday night. Both teams will be desperate to get a win in what has been disappointing seasons, who will come out on top at the MCG?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Blues vs Demons below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Carlton vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 19
Going Nowhere Fast
Carlton were handed another lesson last week, in a 37 point defeat against the Brisbane Lions. The Blues trailed the whole game, and were allowed Brisbane to control the game, with the Blues recording -61 marks, -39 disposals and -16 inside 50’s. Once again Carlton’s attacking game was absolutely nowhere, registering a score of below 70 for the third week in a row. Carlton haven’t scored over 100 points since Round 6, and have only reached the mark twice this season, after hitting the mark nine times in 2024. The Blues defence has been equally as bad over the last three weeks, conceding scores of 110, 115 and 103.
Back On The Winners List
Melbourne ended a five game losing streak with a comfortable 36 point win over North Melbourne in Round 18. The Demons kicked a score above 100 for only the third time this season, thanks to another outstanding performance from Jake Melksham who kicked 5 goals. Melbourne converted 51.9% of inside 50’s into scores, in what has been an area that they’ve struggled in for many years. Christian Petracca was back to his best, with 31 disposals, 7 clearances and a goal, in what was only his third 30+ disposal game of the season.
The Stats That Matter
These sides have similar profiles in terms of what has worked well, and what has been a struggle. Both clubs have strong contested style midfielders who win plenty of clearances, but both clubs have also struggled badly at delivering the ball inside 50, and converting inside 50’s into scores. Carlton ranks 15th for scores (77 points per game) while Melbourne ranks 11th (80). Both clubs try to build the ball up through uncontested marks, with Melbourne ranking 3rd and Carlton ranking 5th in the league for marks. Carlton are the number one ranked team for contested possessions while Melbourne are ranked 4th.
A positive shift in Melbourne’s game has been their increased output in scoring from turnovers, having scored 64 and 48 points from that method in the last two weeks. Carlton in their last two games have conceded 75 and 72 points from turnover, which looms as a major vulnerability for Michael Voss’ side.
Blues or Demons? Here’s our Carlton vs Melbourne Tip
It’s hard to split these two teams, both have played some ordinary football in 2025, performing below expectations, but showing fleeting signs of brilliance thanks to some of their star players. Carlton have been woeful over the last month and surely will be desperate to respond, but it’s been impossible to trust the Blues this season.
The best market to look for in this game is the total points. At the time of writing the line sits at 163.5, which is incredibly generous for two teams who struggle to score, and have played in low scoring scraps against each other in recent seasons. Since 2020 Carlton and Melbourne have met seven times, with the total points from their last seven games against each other being 153, 144, 116, 105, 153, 162 and 107 points. With rain and windy conditions expected for Saturday night at the ‘G, it looks likely these sides will play in another low scoring affair.
Total Points Under 163.5
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Carlton vs Melbourne Prop Bet: Melksham, Again
Our Best Prop Bet: Melksham 3+ Goals
Jake Melksham’s form over the last three weeks has been incredible, with the 33 year old kicking 5, 4 and 5 goals across his last three games. Melksham has made the most of his opportunities in the last fortnight, kicking 5.1 and 4.1, and given Zac Bailey and Charlie Cameron combined for seven goals against the Blues last week, it’s clear they’re vulnerable against small/medium forwards.
Jake Melksham 3+ Goals
$2.55
Carlton vs Melbourne Same Game Multi
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals: While he hasn’t been at his absolute best, Christian Petracca is still finding plenty of the footy. Petracca has reached the 25+ disposal mark in 10 of his last 13 games this season, and is averaging 26 disposals per game during that timespan.
George Hewett 25+ Disposals: In a dark season for Carlton, George Hewett has been a standout player, averaging 27.8 disposals per game, the second most in a season across his career. Hewett has reached the 25+ disposal mark in 14 of his 17 games in 2025, and picked up 33 disposals last week.
Jake Melksham 2+ Goals: As highlighted above, Melsham has been in stunning form with 14 goals across his last three games, taking his season tally to 25 goals from 13 games.
Carlton vs Melbourne Betting Odds & Match Info
Weather: Light rain, 10 degrees
Odds: Carlton ($2.50) vs Melbourne ($1.53)
Where to Watch Carlton vs Melbourne?
You can watch Carlton vs Melbourne live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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