Big Bash League Semi-Finals Preview
A thrilling Big Bash Season 4 (BBL04) has reached the finals and what an incredible season it has been. It started with upset after upset which was a tipster’s nightmare, but a trader’s dream come true. Then there were some outrageously good innings, some incredible finishes, a Super Over and a game that was decided by the 3rd umpire on the final ball. Then, to cap it all off, we saw two epic, epic run chases – one by the Stars and the other by the Sixers – where they came back from the absolute brink to pinch victory. The boundaries of this great game get pushed and pushed every day. Nothing is impossible any more.
Without doubt, the best four teams of the season have made the finals. There’s no arguments there at all. The bottom four were very disappointing, while the Stars have lived up to their reputation after a terrible start to the season. Those that jumped on them at $15 mid-season would be smiling right now.
The Strikers and the Scorchers are the teams to beat as they have earned a home semi-final. Home ground advantage hasn’t meant much in the regular season, but the atmosphere is intensified in a final.
The strength of the top teams has been with the ball, proving that T20 is more than just a batsman’s game. It’s about planning and execution. Something that the Strikers have done brilliantly all season.
Let’s preview the two semi-finals this weekend and see who we think will reach the final in Canberra (lol) next week.
Saturday January 24th – Adelaide Strikers vs Sydney Sixers – Adelaide Oval
The Strikers have finished on top of the ladder with just one loss and one no result for the season. It’s been built on the back of a strong bowling unit, and a couple of exciting innings from their young batting line up. The top order has worked well and when they were dismissed cheaply and we thought their middle order may be vulnerable, the young guys have stood up and excelled.
Their squad has been strengthened for this semi-final with Brad Hodge set to come back from a fractured arm, and Shaun Tait returning after being rested from the most recent road trip.
Strikers Leading Run Scorer: Tim Ludeman (238)
Strikers Leading Wicket Taker: Ben Laughlin (12)
The Sixers looked gone in their final match of the season against the Thunder. Sure, it was a dead rubber, but a loss would’ve been a heavy load to carry into a finals campaign. Instead, they pulled off a miracle win off the back of Jordan Silk and now head into the finals full of confidence.
Another team with a strong bowling line up, the Sixers will look to Brett Lee, Nathan Lyon, Steve O’Keefe and Doug Bollinger to control the Strikers batting line up. The Sixers batting has seen regular contributions from their top four or five, with Silk the standout with some consistent contributions from the middle order. He is now sitting second on the overall run scorers list at an impressive average of 88.67.
The Sixers will welcome back their skipper Moises Henriques from the Australian squad for this match as a handy addition with both bat and ball.
Sixers Leading Run Scorer: Jordan Silk (266)
Sixers Leading Wicket Taker: Brett Lee (9)
Verdict: The good news for those who followed us preseason with our bet on the Sixers to make the final, is that you’ve got odds of $4.25 for the Sixers to win this match instead of the $2.35 being offered at the bookies. That means you can lay off your bet (or back the Strikers) to lock in a guaranteed profit on this match.
The Strikers have only lost one game all season, so they are the logical pick, but there’s not much value at the $1.67 price being offered at the moment. Anything can happen in a final, so I wouldn’t be taking the shorts. We’ll stick with the Sixers in an upset.
Sunday January 25th – Perth Scorchers vs Melbourne Stars - WACA
It was the match that had it all. The Scorchers looked home. They had the runs on the board, early wickets and are known as the best bowling team in the league. But no one told Peter Handscomb who played the innings of his life to single-handedly will the Stars over the line.
Ultimately the result meant nothing, but it will give the Stars huge confidence as they travel to Perth for the rematch.
The Stars should regain Cameron White from national duties but they are still missing key batsmen Glenn Maxwell and James Faulkner. Fortunately Handscomb filled that void beautifully. There will be more attention on him this time, so the Stars will want their top order to start to fire.
With the ball, John Hastings has been their rock with Jackson Bird and Scott Boland having some impact, while Michael Beer has been very economical.
Stars Leading Run Scorer: Kevin Pietersen (262)
Stars Leading Wicket Taker: John Hastings (13)
The Scorchers will be very disappointed to have lost that match after being in such strong shape. Coach Justin Langer would have been ropable and it has to simply be put down to a loss of concentration. Their execution in the final overs was appalling, with Ashton Agar bowling three length deliveries in a row to Hastings which got plastered over the ropes, and then Andrew Tye bowled two rank full tosses in the final over, costing the team victory.
Usually that is their strength, so Langer will be determined to make sure that doesn’t happen again and the Scorchers can extract some revenge.
Shaun Marsh is likely to be released back to the team once again, and he was so crucial in setting up a big target last game. He really adds some great depth to their batting. If Marsh and Klinger back well, then the Scorchers are a complete unit.
Scorchers Leading Run Scorer: Michael Klinger (288)
Scorchers Leading Wicker Taker: Jason Behrendorff (13)
Verdict: The Scorchers have been a very strong team all year. The last five overs against the Stars was a blemish that ruined an otherwise strong all-round match. If they execute those last five overs, they win the game. Their bowling is strong and their batting looks strong if Marsh plays. While Handscomb was brilliant, the Stars batting depth could still be a weakness. Losing the last match offers us some value on the Scorchers at home to extract some revenge.
Betting
Overall: -2.71 units
We were extremely unlucky last round with the Scorchers failing to win from an unbeatable position, Michael Klinger scoring 71 without being top score and Aiden Blizzard likewise scoring 51. Looking to get back into the black in time for the final!
Sydney Sixers (vs Adelaide Strikers) - @$2.35 at Ladbrokes (no play)
Perth Scorchers (vs Melbourne Stars) - @$1.85 at Sportingbet (2 units)
Craig Simmons is due. He likes a final as well with a big hundred last season to help the Scorchers get over the line. He’s a big money recruit who hasn’t really lived up to expectations this season, but this might be his time to let loose. With Ludeman the favourite and Hodge coming into the market, I feel there’s enough value on Simmons to make a play with money back at Sportsbet if he hits a six.
Craig Simmons most runs Strikers @$4.20 at Sportsbet
Futures
Check out the link below for a full blog on the status of our Futures Bets, the sweats we have to finish the season as we're looking at a projected +40 units profit on the season.
