And just like that, we have reached the final round of the 2016 AFL season! My AFL betting tips have been relatively disappointing in the second half of the season. There have been some solid weeks sprinkled in there, but ultimately I will be hoping to finish strongly in the last round and into the finals. The late stages of a season can be tough with so many 'dead rubber' games, but alas, here are my 2016 AFL Round 23 betting tips.
AFL Round 23 Betting Tips
Adelaide Crows vs West Coast Eagles (Friday, August 26 at 7:40pm AEST)
In my intro to Round 23 I mentioned 'dead rubber' games being prevalent late in the season. This is not one of them. If the Crows win they can make the top four, lose and it could be 5th. The Eagles, meanwhile, have a glimmer of hope of making the top four, but a loss here will likely mean a 7th place finish which will give them an elimination final on the road.
Both the Crows and Eagles are without one of their star players heading into this game - West Coast without Nic Nat after he tore his ACL and Adelaide without Rory Sloane after that horrible decision at the MRP. Of those two outs, I have no doubt Nic Nat is the bigger loss. Sloane is a classy player, but Adelaide have plenty of coverage in the midfield, while the stats around West Coast struggling without Nic Nat are clear.
The last time the two sides met was in Round 12 at Domain Stadium and the Crows won by 29 points. The Crows kept the Eagles goal-less in the final quarter in that game, making it the first time that has ever happened at Domain. The Crows are the real deal at any stadium and even harder to play at Adelaide Oval. I'm taking a different angle on this one and betting the Crows to lead at the end of every quarter. We know the troubles West Coast have on the road and after losing Nic Nat, I think their spirits will be at an all-time low. Too much has to go right for them now to take this season any further and as long as Adelaide start focused and lead the first quarter, I find it unlikely the Eagles can claw back.
Tip: Adelaide 'Wire to Wire' (Lead at end every qtr) - $1.95 at CrownBet (2 units)
Geelong Cats vs Melbourne Demons (Saturday, August 27 at 1:45pm AEST)
Being a Melbourne supporter has no doubt been a roller coaster in recent years and while it seemed like the extreme lows were on the backburner, that certainly wasn't the case in Round 22. They had a legitimate chance to make the finals and simply choked. It was hard to watch, but there is still one game left in the season before they can bury their head in the sand It will be interesting to see how this mob responds as they head down to Simonds Stadium on Saturday afternoon to take on the Cats.
If the Demons can put last week's performance behind them, they will be able to draw on their defeat of the Cats at Simonds in Round 12 of 2015. That was a blip in Geelong's record against the Dee as they had won the previous 10. The toughest factor in this game is knowing what sort of intensity the Demons will bring to the table. If we assume they are a proud club who will try to atone for last week, then they are a chance to be relatively competitive. Ultimately, however, the Cats still have plenty to play for and should look to bring their A-game. The Cats have the momentum rolling and are starting to get solid performances from more of their list, relying less on Dangerfield and Selwood every week. It feels like a dangerous game to bet on, but I do think the Demons can bounce back with a better performance this week - they can't just fizzle out and make this season seem like a another bust. It wasn't too long ago they beat the Hawks. They have ability and can be very well coached. They should have enough confidence and belief to move on quickly from last week's game. I'm not overly confident, but I will be fading the almost six-goal line and taking the Cats in a relatively competitive game.
Tip: Geelong by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.25 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues (Saturday, August 27 at 2:10pm AEST)
This game might be the epitome of 'dead rubber' that I referred to earlier. There is nothing but pride on the line for the Bombers and Blues on Saturday, but ultimately this is two proud old clubs who will both want to finish the season on a high.
Despite being 18th (Bombers) and 14th (Blues) on the ladder, you would have to say both these clubs have surprised us this season. I legitimately didn't think the Bombers would win a single game this year and they ended up with two wins. The Blues are probably right around the mark with seven wins, but the development of their young guns and efforts compared to last season can not be ignored. And if they win this game it will be the most victories in a season since 2013.
It will be interesting to see how this game plays out. The Blues and Bombers are the two lowest scoring sides in the comp, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will be a low scoring game. Although, an interesting fact from the AFL website is that if the Bombers don't make it to triple figures this week, they will be the first club since 1973 to not reach at least 100 points once in a season. I actually think the 20-point line here is just about right, but ultimately don't think the game will be a blow out.
Tip: Carlton by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.05 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers (Saturday, August 27 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Swans are very likely to finish on top of the ladder, they just need to win what should be an easy game against the Tigers on Saturday. But let's not forget that Richmond are Sydney's 'bogey' team, winning the last three, including two in Sydney.
The difference between this meeting and back in Round 8 is that the Tigers have been horribly out of form and now have nothing to play for in the last game of the season. The Swans have everything to play for and will no doubt want to atone for that unlucky one-point loss. The Swans should dominate this game. They outclass the Richmond in almost every way, but more importantly, their tackling pressure is the best in the comp, while the Tigers are ranked last for tackles per game in the competition. If last week's performance from Richmond is anything to go by, the Swans should absolutely pummel the Tigers.
The hardest part about games like this is that you don't know how the Swans will manage their players late in the game. This season is unique, however, in that there is a bye week before the finals begin. So for that reason I think the Swans go close to playing the game out with full intensity. Happy to have a small play on the line.
Tip: Sydney at the line (-46.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (1 unit)
Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, August 27 at 7:25pm AEST)
Another meaningless game on Saturday night will see the Power head to Gold Coast to take on the Suns. Both clubs have been extremely disappointing this season, but there are parallels in their lists as many would think this is two clubs that should be around the mark by as early as next season.
On last week's form, Port Adelaide win this game is a cantor. But their efforts last week were in a showdown against fierce rivals the Crows. This a different game all together and it's hard to know which Port Adelaide we will see. Ultimately, however, the Suns were smashed by 71 points last week and lost to Essendon the week before. This young mob want the season to be over and despite the game being at Metricon, I think the Power should win this game easily. They struggle in the midfield and that's about the only part of Port Adelaide's squad that still has class. Think the line here looks generous.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-15.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (2 units)
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs GWS Giants (Saturday, August 27 at 7:25pm AEST)
On of the better games of Round 23 is when the Giants head down to Etihad Stadium on Saturday night to take on the Roos.
Interestingly, the Giants have never beaten North Melbourne in the history of their club. But I don't think anyone would argue the fact that the Giants are an entirely different side this season. They are 5th on the ladder and are a slim chance to make the top four if they win here and other teams currently in the four falter. The Roos, meanwhile, will finish 8th regardless of what happens in this game. Ultimately, I just think the Giants outclass the Roos. The Giants are ranked 1st in the comp for inside 50s and 2nd for scoring, while the Roos are 10th and 9th in this department. Some might suggest the Roos have the edge at Etihad, but the Giants have won their last three games at the stadium and five of the last seven. The ground probably even suits their quick ball running style more than the Roos. All of this is not to mention the distraction of this week's announcement that Roo stalwarts Boomer Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo will be moved on at the end of the season. I don't mind the look of the Giants to cover the line.
Tip: GWS Giants at the line (-14.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet (2 units)
St Kilda Saints vs Brisbane Lions (Sunday, August 28 at 1:10pm AEST)
It's been an extremely disappointing season for the Lions and it's not likely to end on a high note as they take on the Saints at Etihad Stadium on Sunday.
This is one of those games where there isn't too much to say. The Saints haven't played their best football the last few rounds (despite beating Richmond last week), but even some of their worst football is around par with Brisbane's best this year. The Lions have 18 on the injury list and no doubt are desperate for the season to be over. The problem here is that you would have to be brave to bet on this game. There are too many unknown factors with the sort of effort either side will give in a dead rubber game. I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints came out and smashed the Lions, but I will be sitting this one out.
Tip: No Bet.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies (Sunday, August 28 at 3:20pm AEST)
After three years of the Hawks dominating there is no doubt it would be nice to see another team at the top of the totem. If Collingwood can do the unlikely and win this Sunday afternoon, that might very well be the case as the Hawks will likely fall out of the top four.
History says the Pies will find it tough to win this game as the Hawks have won the last eight in a row against Collingwood. I do, however, think the magpies match-up okay against the Hawks this season. Hawthorn simply haven't been the same side as last year and while I don't think think the Pies are a really strong chance to win, I do like the five-goal line Australian sports betting sites have set. They have been really good the last couple of weeks, almost getting a win over the Bulldogs before smashing the Suns. Their younger midfield probably outclasses the tired old-guard at the Hawks (not at their best, but in 2016) and so while the Hawks certainly deserve to be favourites, I think the value here is with Collingwood at the line.
Tip: Collingwood at the line (+30.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1.5 units)
Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs (Sunday, August 28 at 2:40pm AWST)
I have overestimated the Dockers on multiple occasions during the 2016 AFL season. It's been so hard to tell when this battered side will stand up and play good football and the definitive answer seems to be - not often. It will be interesting to see how they play out their last game of the season in front of a home crowd.
The Bulldogs suffered another injury last week, losing perhaps their most important player in Easton Wood. Luckily they are playing a side this week that lacks the class to be an attacking team, otherwise it might be easy to run over the Bulldogs' battered backline. One of the main reasons the Dockers have struggled this season is their inexperienced midfield. They don't really have any elite ball users, or quality running midfielders, in their side at the moment and this is where the Bulldogs excel. Despite being at Domain, happy to bet on the Bulldogs to take some momentum into the finals.
Tip: Western Bulldogs at the line (-20.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet (1 unit)
Always gamble responsibly and consider reading our sports betting bankroll management article. If gambling is becoming a problem for you, there are ways to get help.
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
