The NRL 2nd Semi Final will see one of the Warriors or the Knights make it to a Preliminary Final, in a result I don’t think many predicted at the start of the season. With the winner heading to Suncorp Stadium next Saturday night, sadly the loser will bow out, however both teams will hold their heads high with a loss after terrific seasons by both teams.
Below, we will dissect the Warriors vs Knights matchup, with our best bet and Same Game Multi via Picklebet. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we provide NRL tips for every single game all throughout the NRL finals series for free!
2023 NRL Semi Final Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Go Media Stadium, Saturday 16th September, 4:05pm (AEST)
The Warriors had the toughest test in the NRL last weekend, heading to Penrith to take on the Panthers in the 2nd Qualifying Final. Despite playing some physical football early on, the Warriors found themselves down 18-0 before the half hour mark, and things weren’t looking good. An early second half try to Wayde Egan brought the deficit down to 14, however the Panthers never looked threatened, as they ran in another two unanswered tries to book their place in the Preliminary Finals, with a commanding 32-6 victory. The Warriors conceded 550m more than they made, a whopping 9 line-breaks to 1, whilst missing 55 tackles and making 14 errors. Huge improvements are needed this week if they want to keep their season alive.
As for the Knights, they were involved in a back and forth try-fest against the Raiders, which extended to extra time, with the Knights sneaking home 30-28. The Knights were down 16-6 at halftime, and there were obvious concerns that their season was coming to an end. Then, the moment that changed the momentum of the game, as Jack Wighton decided Tyson Gamble’s arm looked good for an afternoon snack, chomping down on the Knights’ five-eighths arm. No send-off sent the home crowd into a frenzy, which pumped the Knights’ players up, before they ran in 4 tries in 12 minutes to take the lead 28-16. The Raiders managed two late converted tries to tie it up, however the Knights were able to convert a penalty goal in the 8th minute of extra time to book their spot in the semi-finals.
These teams met twice during the season, both times within the first two months of the year. In round 1, the Warriors hosted the Knights at Sky Stadium, with the Warriors running out 20-12 winners. The Warriors closed 2.5-point favourites, and looked very good, making 8 line-breaks to 2. In the pairs second meeting, the Knights’ opened 1.5-point favourites, before the game closed a pick em’. The Knights flipped the script in this one, running out 34-24 winners. The first game total closed 43.5, with the second closing 42.5.
The Warriors opened 5.5-point favourites for the semi-final, with this number bet down slightly to 4.5. I’m not sure about this number, and see some decent value in the Knights here, as I have these teams identically power rated, with the Warriors home field advantage being the difference here. I understand the loss of Jackson Hastings could factor into this spread; however, the Knights have shown recently that they aren’t adversely affected by the loss of their halfback, with Adam Clune involved in late season wins over the Sharks and Dragons.
As for the total, it opened 41.5, and with my fair sitting at 41.5, I see no value here. If you can find a decent price on Knights over 17.5, I don’t mind that as a play, however it won’t feature in my suggested bets this time.
I wouldn’t be overly surprised to see the Knights sneak by here, however I’ll take the +4.5 and hope for an exciting game between two teams that have well and truly overachieved this season.
Newcastle Knights +4.5
$1.95 (2 units)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Knights (+13.5) – See above, I like the Knights to keep this tight, if not win outright.
Dom Young (1+ try) – The Warriors concede 40% of their tries down the left edge, and with Dom Young turning into arguably the best finisher in the NRL, look for the big Englishman to get another this weekend.
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – DWZ has been an absolute revelation this season, and he and Dom Young could well end the season battling it out for the Dally M winger of the year award. DWZ had 21 tries this season, and with Shaun Johnson back on the right, expect the flying perm to cross the stripe in the semi-final.
SGM Odds: $5.00 at Picklebet
