http://www.beforeyoubet.com.au/ascot-preview-betting-tips-saturday-november-18thWelcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for a blockbuster 10-race card at Sandown Hillside on Saturday, November 18th.
The card is headlined by the Group 2 Zipping Classic and the Group 2 Sandown Guineas. The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there is a bit of rain around so monitor updates. We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
As you read, why not tune in to Episode 10 of the Before You Bet Racing Podcast? We recap the Melbourne Cup Carnival and preview a big weekend of racing ahead at Sandown and Ascot. You can also find our Ascot Preview & Betting Tips here for today's Chamion Fillies' Stakes Day!
SANDOWN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 10 Petition
Best Value: Race 10 Long Time Ago
Two-year-old race to kick us off here and I’m really only interested in the top two in the market, who have both had good support in early betting. There’s a big spruik on Tony McEvoy’s OOHOOD on debut, and McEvoy has had eleven juveniles race this season and has placed with eight of them. The stable is in good form in Melbourne and I’d be surprised if this filly didn’t go close here. The Lindsay Park-trained LONG LEAF went to Adelaide on debut and won nicely. He’s been $7.50 into $4.50 which looks a good lead, and David Hayes listed this as the stable’s best chance all weekend. Kerrin McEvoy is booked for the ride. McEvoy’s other horse SECRET BLAZE could be worth including. Not a big betting race to start off but happy to have something small on Oohood with a saver on Long Leaf.
This is a wide-open race but there’s a few I don’t mind the look of here. LUQYAA produced a big run when 2nd behind Our Crown Mistress at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day. In fact, all three of her runs have been good this prep. First up she was good without much luck over 1100m and second up she bumped into Invincible Star, who then ran 2nd in the Coolmoore Stud Stakes. From barrier 13 she’s going to have to get back and be ridden very patiently, but Sandown should give her the chance to wind up and run on. At better odds, BLACK TAN and SHAGRA could both give this a shake. Black Tan only won a maiden last start, but her time was fairly good and I think she’s capable of taking the next step. Shagra won two starts ago at Geelong and ran a huge race behind Tamasa last start. Tamasa should have won at Flemington last weekend so the form looks good. SO FAR SOKOOL also comes out of that race so must be included. SWORN EVIDENCE gets the blinkers on for the first time here but that’s not enough to get me back on board given she’s been poor recently when I thought she was well suited. YULONG XINGSHENG didn’t get a great deal of luck behind Our Crown Mistress and Luqyaa last start but caught the eye finishing well; she has to be respected. LADY OF CREBILLY makes the trip over from Adelaide after back-to-back wins.
TIP: Luqyaa / Black Tan EW
Pretty keen on GALLIC CHIEFTAIN here who was given absolutely no hope in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington last week. Michael Dee took him back in the field and was then held up, before having to switch off heels at about the 200m. The horse was literally out of picture at the 200m before flashing home to finish 5th. I don’t see the distance being any issue and I think that’s a stronger race than the one FANATIC won. Fanatic did win over 2800m so the 3200m should be no issue and if she manages to produce another effort like that she will definitely be competitive. SWACADELIC worked home nicely behind her to run 3rd and he can feature in the finish, while HAVANA COOLER has had four runs back now and is surely ready to do something. Gallic Chieftain clearly on top.
TIP: Gallic Chieftain
Thought this race was the hardest race on the card to assess. BURNING FRONT was set for the race he ran 2nd in two starts ago, and he had no hope last start when him and Religify went hammer and tongs out the front at the Valley. There looks to be a bit of speed on once again today so we may see him take a sit from barrier 4. I think the market will be key with him. If he blows out to around $6 he might be cooked, but if he remains steady I think he’ll go awfully close to winning. We know he can maintain form deep into a preparation so I won’t be losing on him here. THRONUM is the new kid on the bloke, so to speak, with just the eight career starts to his name. He returned from a long spell with a dominant win at Bendigo when he led all the way. He may not be able to lead all the way here with JUNGLE EDGE involved, so it will be interesting to see what tactics they use. He had good form as a juvenile in Sydney and looks to have returned in great order, so while he’s not well in here at the weights under WFA conditions, he does look to be relatively unexposed and has scope for improvement. OCEAN EMBERS was huge when winning down the straight last weekend. She improved out of sight from two ordinary displays to start her campaign. From barrier 1 she will be placed in an awkward spot on the rail, which is the main concern. She either wins or doesn’t go close. I think it’s between those three, happy to take on ILLUSTRIOUS LAD. KEEN ARRAY at his best would obviously go close, while JUNGLE EDGE needs plenty of rain to come.
Tony McEvoy has got DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR absolutely flying and I don’t see any reason to drop off him on the back of a convincing win at Flemington on Melbourne Cup Day. He got the run of the race that day and he maps to get the run of the race once again here from barrier 3. Any rain is no problem and he should be very hard to beat again. HELLOVA STREET got all the favours when leading all the way to win in Group 3 company last time out, and he maps to get an easy lead once again here. If he gets a similar run in front they will likely struggle to run him down. LUCKY HUSSLER pulled up after failing last start. We backed him two starts ago at the Valley when he just had the race set up for him, and I think that perhaps flattered him a touch. He’ll appreciate a bit more give in the ground here but with 60kg I’m happy to take him on today. DUKE OF BRUNSWICK was a massive run last start behind Moher and must go in exotics. No knock on either MOSS ‘N’ DALE or LAND OF PLENTY.
TIP: Dollar For Dollar
Happy to be on CRYSTAL DREAMER here after bouncing back to his best when 2nd behind Ball Of Muscle in the 1000m straight race at Flemington on Oaks Day. Draws well here and has won his only start over the track and distance so with all being equal he looks the one to beat. I think CONCEALER goes close. She was another that returned to her best with a big run behind Lyuba in Group 3 company last start. Barrier 1 may turn out to be slightly tricky but her only win came over this distance and we know she handles the straight. The value in the race could be THELBURG. John Sadler mentioned two weeks ago he had two runners going around at this meeting and both would win, and it appears this is one of the two runners. He was well backed in a 955m race at the Valley first up but went to the line under a stranglehold without ever seeing daylight. His jumpouts leading into that run were superb and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t run a big race here. Currently $7.50. LADY ESPRIT is undefeated at the track and distance so must be included at good odds, while DANCE WITH FONTEIN can peak third up from a spell here. GUN CASE another that can’t be dismissed given his super record at the track and distance. Competitive race but leaning to Crystal Dreamer and Thelburg.
TIP: Crystal Dreamer / Thelburg EW
Looks a three-horse race with ALMANDIN, BIG DUKE and THE TAJ MAHAL. Simply, if Almandin is at his best, like he was three starts ago, he just wins this. But the big query is if he’s at his best. He certainly wasn’t two starts ago and he certainly wasn’t in the Melbourne Cup, but he had excuses there after being caught three-wide the trip. All indications are the horse is sound and well otherwise they wouldn’t back him up so quickly, and he’s suited back to WFA conditions here. I just can’t be certain with any runner from this stable, let alone Almandin based on recent runs! At the price I have to look past him today and go with BIG DUKE, who I’m convinced will run to his best. The quick back-up is a good sign, and the blinkers go on for the first time here. No problem with the drop back in trip and his run in the Melbourne Cup was particularly good. THE TAJ MAHAL ran a massive race behind Tosen Stardom in the Emirates last weekend, as the market suggested he might, and he comes into this on the one-week back up. Up to 2400m is the query for him.
TIP: Big Duke
The Guineas looks a competitive affair and could go a number of ways. We backed Beau Geste in the Carbine Club Stakes and based on his run there, I have to stick with him today. He was taken a long way back, was held up for a significant part of the straight, before getting out at the 200m and flashing home for 4th. With a bit more luck, he should have gone very close to winning that. I’d like to see him a touch closer from the good barrier draw here, and Damien Lane chooses to stick with him which is a positive sign. SNITZEPEG basically finished alongside him in the Carbine Club and had a similar run in transit. If Beau Geste can go close then he can go close too. BLACK SAIL gets the blinkers on for the first time here after running 2nd to All Too Huying on Oaks Day. Notably, Lane jumps off him to ride Beau Geste, but I think he’s still a live chance here and worth including. VILLERMONT clearly went up a crazy price at $16 and he’s the value in the race at $6.50, which is still a decent price. Forget his last run when trapped four-wide on speed; he started the short-priced favourite on that occasion and Black Sail ran 2nd, so he can bounce back here. PEACEFUL STATE and HYPNOTIST should not be discounted, include them both at double figure odds.
TIP: Beau Geste / Villermont EW
RAW IMPULSE looked one of the better bets on the card here after a slashing run behind Fastnet Tempest when he was badly held up and really should have won. He’s on the quick back up here and once again draws barrier 1, so if Lane can find room a tough earlier there’s no reason he shouldn’t go close to winning. KIDMENEVER is the one that should improve out of sight after pulling up with thumps and an internal bleed last start. He generally improves second up anyway, but you can just pen his first up run due to those issues. He of course represents the lethal McEvoy/Appleby combination that has been so successful, and $8 looks a good price for him. I won’t be losing on him. OBSERVATIONAL is the second John Sadler runner on the card, and he is definitely one I think he was referring to when he said he’d have two horses at Sandown that would win. This horse ran fairly first up, which is what he did last preparation before winning 2nd up. He’s clearly been targeted at this and should be included at the big price. PURE PRIDE won three starts ago, was luckless two starts ago and pulled up lame last start. I’d expect her to be storming home if she was over her issue from last start. PAYROLL is flying and has to go in the numbers, and VON TUNZELMAN didn’t get a great deal of luck at his first Australian start.
TIP: Raw Impulse / Observational EW
PETITION is the other one that looked one of the better bets of the day. She was a horror watch if you backed her last start, charging home before being badly held up in the last 100m behind eventual winner Global Glamour. That race has since produced a Group 1 winner in Shillelagh and Cool Passion also went very close in another good race, so the form can be trusted. I think this is a much easier race, and from the good draw she looks to get a great run in the race. All she has to do is hold her form and she surely goes very close to winning this. Backed into $2.90 now and not surprised if she starts shorter than that. One at very big odds I’m keen to include is LONG TIME AGO, first up this preparation and trained by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. The notable thing is Kerrin McEvoy is booked to ride, which meant he jumped off Ravi (before she was scratched) in order to ride this horse. The stable are absolutely flying in Melbourne and this mare has a great first up record. I think she’s way over the odds at $18. OREGON’S DAY has the quality to win this but has been riddled by bad barriers in recent starts. She’ll get back from barrier 8 but if she can find cover she will be running home strongly late. INVINCIBELLA continues to run well but will get a long way back from barrier 11 because that’s how the stable ride horses when they’re drawn poorly. MRS GARDENIA and QUILATE two to include at bigger odds.
TIP: Petition (Best Bet) / Long Time Ago (Best Value)
1, 2, 8
1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10
1, 2, 6, 9, 10, 11
2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 16
$100 = 15.43%
_ _ _
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