The international break is over and the English Premier League returns with a blockbuster top of the table clash between Manchester City and Liverpool. The top four continues to hang in the balance, and we’ve got you covered with our EPL best bets for Matchday 13!
EPL 2023-24: Matchday 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Manchester City vs Liverpool
Etihad Stadium, Saturday 25th November, 11:30pm AEDT
The two best sides of the last five years face off once again in a top of the table clash, as Liverpool travel to the Etihad to take on Manchester City. Both sides are in good form coming into this clash with three wins from their last four games, with just one point separating the two clubs. City’s last outing was arguably the game of the season, as the stoppage time penalty from Cole Palmer held the defending champions to a draw. Liverpool were clinical in a 3-0 victory over Brentford on Matchday 12, led by a Mo Salah brace as Liverpool improved to a 8-3-1 record.
It’s no surprise these two sides rank as elite at both ends of the pitch, with Manchester City the number one ranked attack (32 goals) and the 2nd ranked defence (12 goals conceded) while Liverpool are the equal 1st ranked defence (10 goals conceded) and equal 3rd ranked attack (27 goals scored). Statically it looms as an incredibly even encounter, however the league leaders have an excellent track record in winning top of the table clashes across the last three seasons, and that big game experience will be crucial given the personnel changes that have happened at Liverpool over the last two seasons.
Manchester City hold a 3-3-1 record in their last seven Premier League fixtures against Liverpool, and although it’s not a dominant record, they win big against Liverpool. City’s three wins in that time period have come by score lines of 4-0, 4-1 and 4-1 with the last score line coming in their last matchup against each other in April this year. The Reds haven’t had a track record of beating City in league matches over the past three years, and Pep Guardiola’s side will be desperate to claim three crucial points in the title race. After dropping points against Chelsea, expect a fired up Manchester City to get back to winning ways and cement top spot on the table.
Manchester City
$1.73 (1 unit)
Newcastle vs Chelsea
St James’ Park, Sunday 26th November, 2:00am AEDT
An injury depleted Newcastle will be looking to remain in the top four race when they host Chelsea at St James’ Park. A 2-0 defeat to sixteenth place Bournemouth before the international break has the Magpies six points adrift of the top four, with just one win from their last three matches. Chelsea arguably put together their best performance of the season in a thrilling 4-4 draw against Manchester City, with Chelsea’s 4-4-4 record seeing them in 10th place on the Premier League table.
Newcastle are expected to have thirteen players unavailable due to injury, including Callum Wilson, Dan Burn, Harvey Barnes, Fabian Schar, Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron. At full strength it would be very easy to back Newcastle, however given how thin their side is and the enterprising football Chelsea have played in their last two games, it’s hard to know what to expect from Eddie Howe’s side. Newcastle will likely have just one of their first choice defenders available, which leaves what has been one of the best defensive sides in the league over the last twelve months incredibly vulnerable. They were put to the sword by a Brentford side that has far less attacking threats than what Chelsea have, which would have Eddie Howe incredibly nervous.
One thing that we can expect is goals, Newcastle are the third most prolific attacking team in the league this season with 27 goals, whilst Chelsea have played in 4-1 and 4-4 results in their last two league matches. Seven of Newcastle’s twelve games this season have resulted in the total goals hitting over 2.5, with four of Chelsea’s last five Premier League fixtures also hitting over 2.5 total goals. It’s going to be a tough task for Newcastle to come away with all three points, and Chelsea have been incredibly inconsistent this season, so the total goals market is where we’ll be going in this clash.
Over 2.5 Goals
$1.80 (1.5 units)
Brentford vs Arsenal
Brentford Community Stadium, Sunday 26th November, 4:30am AEDT
Brentford and Arsenal go head to head on Sunday morning in what presents as a crucial opportunity for the third placed Gunners, given City and Liverpool play each other this weekend. Arsenal are on equal points with Liverpool and only one point behind Man City, meaning there is a very realistic chance that the Gunners could be at the top of the table by the end of the Matchday. Brentford will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing defeat to Liverpool which ended their three game winning streak and saw the Bees fall into the bottom half of the table.
Arsenal have been a model of consistency this season, possessing the equal best defence in the league (10 goals conceded) as well as the fourth highesting scoring attacking unit in the league this season. Their elite performance at both ends of the pitch looms as the differentiating against Brentford, who rank 10th for goals for and goals against. Brentford are a solid team that have done well this season, however there is a gap between the Bees and the best teams in the league. Brentford are yet to beat a team in the top four this season, and their lack of top end star power was on display in their 3-0 defeat against Liverpool.
Arsenal have had thirteen different goal scorers this season, and possess an abundance of attacking threats that make them nearly impossible to contain, especially for a mid table side like Brentford. Brentford are winless from their last three Premier League fixtures against Arsenal, and with a chance to move into top spot on the Premier League table for Arsenal, expect Mikel Arteta’s side to come out all guns blazing and put Brentford to the sword. Arsenal have hardly put a foot wrong this season with their 8-3-1 record, and won’t have any troubles getting past Brentford.
