Concluding the first week of the 2023 AFL Finals is a matchup that sees Brisbane host Port Adelaide at the Gabba. Will the Lions remain undefeated at home this year or can the Power cause an upset? Catch our full preview, analysis, and betting strategy for the match below!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for all 2023 AFL Finals matches, so make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content!
2023 AFL First Elimination Final Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Port Adelaide
Saturday 7:25pm AEST, September 9th, Gabba
Sitting outside the top two for the majority of the season, Brisbane were able to finish strong enough to sneak in and earn themselves a home qualifying final. The Lions did the bulk of their heavy lifting on their home deck where they finished with an unblemished record (12-0-0), which highlights the importance of their top two finish which will give them every opportunity to make their first Grand Final appearance since 2004.
The Lions have had a fortunate run with injuries this season and that’s been one of their key reasons for success. The only regular members of their best 22 missing from Saturday night’s team are Will Ashcroft and Jack Gunston. Ashcroft unfortunately tore his ACL in the latter stages of the regular season and will return in 2024, while Gunston will be available for selection in 1-2 weeks.
Rising up the ladder this year after a poor 2022 was Port Adelaide. Long time coach Ken Hinkley was the most under pressure coach heading into the season but has done enough to earn himself another couple of seasons at the helm. The Power started the year on fire and looked destined to finish in the top two, but a four-game losing streak in the latter stages saw them ultimately finish in third.
A big reason for the Power’s struggles from Rounds 18-21 was due to injuries to key players. Still, the Power will be without key forward and former All-Australian Charlie Dixon on Saturday night which is a big loss. Interestingly, club champion Travis Boak has been left out of the starting 22, as has in-form small forward Francis Evans.
Match prediction: The only meeting between these teams this season was back in Round 1 when Port Adelaide secured a commanding 54-point win which at the time was considered an upset. Obviously, a lot has transpired since then and it would be a stretch to take much out of that match from an analysis standpoint.
Home ground advantage seems to be the key for the Lions this season and it’s hard to make a case to bet against them considering they haven’t lost there this season from 12 outings. However, the Power certainly won’t go down without a fight and you can expect them to push the Lions all the way. Our computer model (see above) has the Lions winning in the 1-39 range and that feels like the safest way to invest on this clash.
Brisbane 1-39
$2.30 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The easiest way to place your Same Game Multi is to click on the BoomBet BetShare banner below! This will add our SGM selections straight into your BoomBet bet slip! You can then enter how much you wish to wager and with one click, your bet has been placed!
Joe Daniher 2+ Goals – The Power lack quality tall defenders and that will have big Joe licking his lips. He comes in having kicked 2+ goals in 13 of his last 17 outings.
Willie Rioli 1+ Goal – Finished the regular season kicking at least one goal in each of his last six matches. He’ll likely be the most dangerous Port Adelaide forward.
Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals – Hasn’t had his best season but performs well on the big stage. He finished the regular season with 30 disposals in back-to-back games.
Dan Houston 25+ Disposals – Recently rewarded with his first All-Australian blazer, Houston has had a fantastic season. He’s had 25+ disposals in seven of his last 10 games and remains great value.
SGM Odds: $4.75 at BoomBet
