Doing battle in the second of two Preliminary Finals this weekend are Brisbane and Carlton. The pair will face off at the Gabba on Saturday night with the winner booking a ticket into next weekend’s AFL Grand Final. We bring you our preview, data tools, and best bets for the clash below!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for all 2023 AFL Finals matches, so make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content!
2023 AFL Second Preliminary Final Preview & Betting Tips
Brisbane vs Carlton
Saturday 5:15pm AEST, September 23rd, Gabba
Looking to finally make it back to the big dance, Brisbane will head into Saturday night’s Preliminary Final as the favourites. They’ve had many chances to make a Grand Final appearance in recent years, but maybe this is the year they feature on the final day for the first time since 2004.
The Lions earned the right to freshen up their sore bodies last weekend after securing the win over the Power in the Qualifying Final. They dominated that clash, particularly in the second half to run away 48 point winners (123-75). Joe Daniher was the standout forward with five goals from his 16 disposals, while Cam Rayner was also dangerous with three goals and 16 disposals.
It was no real surprise that the only change the Lions made at the selection table was a forced one. Jack Payne will unfortunately make way for Darcy Gardiner in a like-for-like swap, while Jarryd Lyons will likely be the sub once again.
One of the surprise packets in 2023 has been the resurgence of Carlton. The Blues absolutely stormed home in the second half of the season after a slow start to become legitimate premiership contenders. However, history is not on their side as the last time they made a Grand Final was back in 1999.
The Blues have made it to week 3 of the finals thanks to back-to-back clutch wins in elimination finals. First they defeated the Swans by six points (74-68) and most recently they overcame the Demons by two points (73-71).
Clearly not afraid to make the tough decisions, Carlton’s selection panel have made four changes to the team that won the thriller against the Demons last weekend and none of them are forced changes. Brodie Kemp, David Cunningham, Matthew Kennedy and Matthew Owies have all been omitted, while Harry McKay, Jack Martin and Jordan Boyd have been selected.
Match prediction: As mentioned at the top, Brisbane will start this game as the clear favourites, with the current handicap line sitting at 18.5 points at most bookmakers. The obvious reason for their favouritism is the fact they’re undefeated at the Gabba this season, boasting a 12-0 record.
However, Carlton are in sensational form with wins in 10 of their last 11 games and clearly won’t go down with a fight. They’ve lost only one match by 40+ points this season and that was back in Round 5 away against Adelaide. This leads me to believe that taking the Lions to win in the 1-39 range is the best play from a betting standpoint, which is also the range our computer model has the Lions winning in.
Brisbane 1-39
$2.10 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Jesse Motlop 1+ Goals – Has kicked 14 goals from his last eight matches including two in the win against the Demons last time out.
Cam Rayner 1+ Goals – Was one of the team’s best in the qualifying final win over the Power with three goals. Has now kicked seven goals from his last four matches.
Sam Walsh 25+ Disposals – Three straight games of 28+ disposals and has probably been the Blues best player in both finals to date.
Blake Acres 20+ Disposals – Averaging over 23 disposals per contest this campaign and had 10 straight of 20 or more before failing last start.
SGM Odds: $3.20 at BoomBet
