Round 5 of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season gets underway this Thursday night as Melbourne host the Brisbane Lions at the MCG. The Demons have jumped out of the gates this year at 4-1 and are looking back to their premiership best, while the Lions have struggled early as the grand final hangover from 2023 has led to a 1-3 start. This game will be crucial for Brisbane if they are to signify to the rest of the league that they are still contenders, while Melbourne will want to solidify their spots as early season premiership favourites with a statement game at home.
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Thursday night main being worth $60,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $60,000+ Demons vs Lions
- AFL $5,000+ Demons vs Lions High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Demons vs Lions Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Demons vs Lions Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!
Betting Markets
Melbourne ($1.41) vs Brisbane ($2.82)
Points: 164.5
Line: Melbourne -14.5
If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.
Additionally, we have a full Melbourne vs Brisbane Betting Preview for the game where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
Forecast is 18 degrees and cloudy with a chance of light showers in the morning. No weather concerns for fantasy football.
Where to Attack?
As we noted in the preview for last week’s Thursday night game Melbourne continue their trend from last year of conceding points to backs. It is the general defenders that are seeing the increase in points rather than the designated kicker and over the last five games, the Demons have conceded over 18 points per game above league average to backs, the third highest mark in the league. Last week were able to take advantage of this trend by stacking up Hinge with other Crows backs and it paid off big time. This week I will be going to the same strategy with the Lions defenders.
Game Script – Brisbane backs, Melbourne inside midfielders and forwards
VALUE PLAYS
Kade Chandler ($8,870) once again looks a safe value option on this tough single game slate. He has shown a relatively solid flour over the past four games with two scores of 75 and 81 during this same period that would be great returns in this matchup. Even last week he gave us a 68 point game which was passable for a single contest. He pushes up the ground in that high half forward role which provides plenty of scoring potential.
When talking value it would be remiss not to mention the two $6,000 Melbourne players on offer in Taj Woewodin and Koltyn Thostrup. Keep an eye on the teams coming into the game and who is the sub as the other player could be considered at this price point in a single game. Woewodin started showing fantasy scoring capability in the VFL last last season, while Thostrup was a solid WAFL player as an inside midfielder in 2023.
Finally on the Lions side, I would expect Kai Lohmann ($7,500) to be a popular play on this slate after his 78 point performance last week. However, he will be a fade for mine, noting that last week was in a blowout against North where he managed to kick 2 goals. I don’t expect things to be as easy in this weeks matchup against arguably the best defense in the AFL.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Darcy Wilmot ($9,870) will for part of my Lions back stack. He has had just two games 70+ so far this season, but this will be the best matchup he has faced yet. He just needs to push that up to an 80 point return to be in play at this price point in a single game slate if there is any team in the league that is possible it will be against the Demons.
Tom Sparrow ($10,160) continues to play a significant role in the Melbourne midfield this season. He attended 68% of the Demons centre bounces last week and that resulted in a 76 fantasy point return. Three weeks ago when he attended a similar amount of centre bounces he also racked up 87 fantasy points. There is no indication that this role won’t continue this week so I will continue to roll him at this price point.
For the punters out there look to play Tom Sparrow in the fantasy markets where he is paying $1.90 for a 70+ score.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Dayne Zorko ($14,500) has moved to the role across half back due to the injuries Brisbane have faced in this part of the ground. We have seen this happen during patches of games in recent years and the results have always been huge from a fantasy perspective. As noted above, this is also one of the top matchups in the league for backs so I love going to Zorko as a premium play here stacked up along other Lions backs. He is coming off 111 fantasy points last week and in addition to rostering him I love playing the fantasy betting markets where he is paying $6 to lead all scorers.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
Cheat Sheet
AFL Projections Data – Demons vs Lions - Downloadable File (.xlsx)
