What a tonic it would be to have three winning Australian teams in this truncated Round 8 even with three Kiwi teams lounging with byes.
The Queensland Reds face a huge task against a fired-up Moana Pasifika in Samoa and one of the bets of the season might be staring us in the face.
The ACT Brumbies face the Fijian Drua in Canberra and the NSW Waratahs v Western Force match is definitely going to produce an Aussie victor in Sydney.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 8 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Moana Pasifika v Queensland Reds
Apia Park, Samoa, Friday April 14th, 2:05pm (AEST)
Moana Pasifika are limping last with a 0-7 record but this historic match in Apia will have them fired up in front of their Samoan fans. Emotions will be high and players will be performing for family in the crowd. The Moana Pasifika players were even given a welcome home parade on Wednesday. This game is a big deal in Samoa.
Several Reds players have said they expect Moana Pasifika players to grow an extra leg with such support behind them. Former Wallaby Chris Latham, a former attack coach for Manu Samoa, said “it’s going to be more like 10 legs.”
That makes the $2.60 for a win extremely good value. If you go all in on Moana Pasifika, you can get $12 about a win by 15-plus.
The best read on this game is how the Fijian Drua have been transformed by playing at home...an upset over the Crusaders and a win over the Melbourne Rebels. They are two-from-two at home in 2023.
The Reds may be rallying for a big one after the embarrassing 52-24 loss to the ACT Brumbies last round but their forward stocks keep getting eroded.
Lock Angus Blyth (suspension), lock Seru Uru (concussion) and flanker Liam Wright (broken hand) have all been casualties this week.
The Reds are down on class in the pack. As good as their backs may be, they are on the small size and don’t have a hammering influence like Wallaby centre Hunter Paisami, still out with a knee injury.
Moana Pasifika have the least effective scrum in the competition but the Reds aren’t world-beaters in that department either.
Moana Pasifika concede a lot of turnovers and miss a bunch of tackles but no team beats more defenders (31) on average in a game such is their attack. The Reds have to tackle like demons and clinically score from their chances to stay in this and even that might not be enough.
Moana Pasifika to win
$2.60 (2 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Fijian Drua
GIO Stadium, Canberra, Friday April 14th, 7:35pm (AEST)
The Brumbies have plenty to play for with a chance to enter the top two with a win. They match up well against the Fijian Drua because they have the patience to stick to set piece strengths to grind down the Fijians. It worked last year when they had a combined score of 75-15 in two wins against them.
The Drua are fitter and much better defensively this year. They have also developed a very reliable lineout and scrum to advance up the table.
The Brumbies can still limit them better than just about any opponent. That doesn’t mean shutting down every freakish offload but the men from Canberra just won’t shoot themselves in the foot with a string of silly errors. The Brumbies give away fewer penalties than any other side and grab a bunch of turnovers. They just operate in a very composed way.
Will there be a lineout drive mauled to the tryline? Absolutely. You’d pay to see Fijian flyer Iosefo Masi score his sixth try of the year but a boring lineout drive try is worth the same points.
Brumbies for sure.
Brumbies -18.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
NSW Waratahs v Western Force
Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Saturday April 15th, 7:35pm (AEST)
For the 1-5 Waratahs, there is no way back from a loss here. This is an all-important clash to start some momentum for the second half of the season. With the match of such consequence, you’d expect the Waratahs to finally put out their best performance of the year.
They’ve lost four straight home games so they really do have to start rewarding their fans too.
Winger Mark Nawaqanitawase may be a key figure. He’s the guy beating the most defenders and dishing the most offloads. Play hasn’t always reached his wing and he’s got three tries to show for 2023.
The Force have unearthed some good recruits in halfback Gareth Simpson, five-try winger Zach Kibirige and centre Sam Spink, all from the English Premiership.
Simpson has proved a spark and he employs the blindside very effectively.
The Waratahs in this.
Waratahs -8.5
$1.86 (3 Units)
More Super Rugby Round 8 Betting Tips
Hurricanes v Chiefs
Sky Stadium, Wellington, Saturday April 15th, 12:35pm (AEST)
TIP: Chiefs to win - $1.80 at Ladbrokes
