Australian sides went 0-3 in their match-ups against Kiwi opponents in Round 4 of Super Rugby Pacific and assessing likely margins again looks the trick, rather than obvious victors, in Round 5.
The ACT Brumbies are bowling along with an impressive 4-0 record but don’t get hasty about their chances against the Crusaders in Christchurch because key Wallabies are being rested.
In Auckland, the Western Force face a Blues side hungry to start winning again.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Round 5 of Super Rugby Pacific.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 5 Preview & Betting Tips
Crusaders vs Brumbies
Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch, Friday March 24th, 5:05pm (AEDT)
The Brumbies haven’t won in Christchurch since 2000 and better, full-strength teams than this one have fallen short during this streak of 11 straight losses.
The Brumbies are being pragmatic. With rest games mandated for Wallabies, they’ve chosen this match to spell trumps Nic White, Rob Valetini, James Slipper, Tom Wright and Pete Samu. Len Ikitau and Darcy Swain are also out injured so that’s seven Wallabies missing altogether. Only one is returning...prop Allan Alaalatoa.
As good as the Brumbies' set piece is and as deep as the Brumbies roster may run when promising backrowers like Rory Scott and Luke Reimer can step up, you have to mark this down as a Crusaders win.
The Kiwis have their own issues with All Blacks lock Sam Whitelock (broken hand) and pacy Sevu Reece (knee) missing.
The champion Crusaders showed their true class when toppling the Blues last start.
There is a definite “Last Crusade” vibe to the team now that coach Scott Robertson has been named All Blacks coach from 2024.
The Line is set at 18.5 points (Ladbrokes) so the bookies aren’t tipping a close one.
Highest Scoring Half – Second Half
$1.80 (3 Units)
NSW Waratahs v Chiefs
Allianz Stadium, Sydney, Friday March 24th, 7:35pm (AEDT)
At 1-3, the Waratahs are desperate to win one against the odds. The 4-0 Chiefs are riding high so this will be a tough one.
The Waratahs haven’t held the free-running Chiefs attack below 39 points since 2016 which shows you the battleground...the Waratahs have to tackle, scramble and tackle again to apply the pressure to be in this.
It doesn’t help that key players like inside centre Lalaki Foketi, backrower Charlie Gamble, fierce ball-runner Langi Gleeson and four-try teen star Max Jorgensen are out injured.
Centre Izaia Perese said this week that the desire, care and effort has been there but he also added a note that should be a team theme: “I just need to pull my finger out.”
Urgency is key.
The return of lock Jed Holloway and No.8 Will Harris to the pack shows that the Waratahs do have depth.
Pacy livewire Ben Dowling is the new fullback. He has to make good decisions when asked to kick and that can’t be a hack down the centre of the field or Chiefs fliers Emoni Narawa and Etene Nanai-Seturo will run it back for a 60m try as they did against the Melbourne Rebels last weekend.
Win or lose, the Chiefs back three always sees plenty of ball so try-scorer bets on Narawa and Nanai-Seturo are good options.
Chiefs ringmaster Damian McKenzie celebrates 100 Super Rugby caps in this one. All Blacks Sam Cane, Brad Weber and Brodie Retallick also return. Chiefs will be 5-0 after this game.
Chiefs -15.5
$1.91 (3 Units)
Melbourne Rebels v Queensland Reds
AAMI Park, Melbourne, Saturday March 25th, 7:35pm (AEDT)
One of the real head-scratchers of the round. We’ll find out if the Rebels have improved as much as we think but also whether that is still short of Queensland’s level.
The Reds have won seven of their nine derbies against Australian sides in 2022-23 when only the Brumbies (twice) have beaten them.
By contrast, the Rebels are 2-6 in such fixtures. The Rebels still don’t know exactly what winning looks like in terms of closing out tight games or taking big moments to grab a big scalp.
All rising teams face that moment in their development.
The Reds beat the Fijian Drua 27-24 last weekend but analysed it like a loss because of too many handling errors, poor decisions, a second half fadeout, carelessness and still conceding more penalties than any team in the competition.
The Reds have issues with a non-dominant tight five which is presenting spluttering ball to halfback and weapon Tate McDermott, who hasn’t had the platform to play to his dangerous best.
There is firepower aplenty in the Reds backline even with winger Suliasi Vunivalu to rest a niggle and back-up flyhalf Tom Lynagh out with concussion. Top attacker Jordie Petaia is back on the wing and Wallaby Hunter Paisami will be back in the centres.
Expect flyhalf James O’Connor to have a big game. It’s quite the match-up in that position...the old bull against in-form Rebels young gun Carter Gordon. It’s one Wallabies coach Eddie Jones will be watching.
Gordon does rip a fine long pass but the premeditated ones are ripe to be intercepted. He’s the reason that the Rebels are averaging 30 points per game and making the most of excellent backrow efforts from Brad Wilkin and Richard Hardwick.
This game should be a beauty. Reds by a whisker.
Reds -5.5
$1.91 (4 Units)
Blues v Western Force
Eden Park, Auckland, Sunday March 26th, 1:35pm (AEDT)
The Blues have beaten the Force seven times in a row and it is hard to see the trend being broken here.
The Blues have had a wobble with losses to the Crusaders and Brumbies in recent games but their noted firepower is intact.
There is only a small chance of rain on Sunday so this looks like a big scoring afternoon at Eden Park.
The Blues are resting some of their All Blacks so that dilutes the cohesion a bit.
Blues –21.5
$1.83 (4 Units)
More Round Five Betting Tips
Highlanders v Fijian Drua
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin, Saturday March 25th, 2:35pm (AEDT)
Fijian Drua WIN - $3.10 Bet now at Ladbrokes
Moana Pasifika v Hurricanes
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, Saturday March 25th, 5:05pm (AEDT)
Hurricanes win by 15+ - $1.53 Bet now at TAB
