Friday Night Football is wrapped up by two teams hovering around the back end of the top 8, as the Manly Sea Eagles host the Dolphins at Brookvale. It’s an interesting matchup, with both teams’ form being up and down all season, and with both teams coming off a loss, they will be looking to get back into the winners’ circle.
As always, the guys at BeforeYouBet have covered with previews and best bets for every NRL game all season long.
NRL Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
Manly Sea Eagles vs The Dolphins
4 Pines Park, Friday 9th June, 8:00pm (AEST)
The Sea Eagles are off the bye, with their last game in round 13 ending in a 28-18 loss in Newcastle to the Knights. The Sea Eagles were without Daly Cherry-Evans and Tom Trbojevic due to Origin; however, both will be back this week against the Dolphins. The Sea Eagles were dominated by the Knights, and with the continued absence of Jake Trbojevic, it will be interesting to see if their other forwards can step up this weekend.
The Dolphins were hammered by the Warriors last week, going down 30-8, in the Dolphins’ third blowout loss of the season. The losses of Jeremy Marshall-King and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow were huge last week, and the Dolphins should look much better this week with their inclusions. The Dolphins were competitive for 60 minutes of this game, however a 20-minute period where they conceded 4 tries (24 points), shows that they are still more than capable of lapses in concentration that will lead to big losses.
This game opened up with the Sea Eagles as 3.5-point favourites, however this number has changed massively with the inclusion of Tom Trbojevic, which now sees the home side favoured by 9.5-points. That’s a substantial change, even for a player as good as Tommy Turbo. Whilst I believe this number has moved too far, you’ve also got to factor in the Sea Eagles coming off the bye this week.
As for the total, this one opened at 45.5, and has been bet down slightly to 44.5. In 5 games played at 4 Pines this year, the average has been 39.4 points per game scored, with an average closing total of 43.5. Both these teams are mid-pack when it comes to points scored per game, and in points conceded, and there is no real trend on these sides going over or under totals. So, I’ll leave this one alone.
A look across the advanced attacking and defensive statistics of these two teams doesn’t show a massive difference between the two. The Sea Eagles appear to be better defensively, particularly through the middle, with the Titans conceding the most post contact metres per game in the NRL. The Sea Eagles aren’t elite when it comes to making metres through the middle, and the loss of Jake Trbojevic makes it even worse for the Manly middles. With these teams appearing hard to split, the 9.5-point handicap looks pretty enticing here, and that’s the way I’ll go.
If this ever gets to 10.5, upgrade this to a 2.5u play, but for now, just the 1.5u of the Dolphins +9.5.
Dolphins +9.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
