AFL Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs Collingwood
Monday 3:20pm AEST, June 5th, MCG
The Collingwood juggernaut continues to roll on with a 63 point victory over West Coast giving the Pies their eighth straight win, moving them to 11-1 at the top of the ladder. A six goal to none final quarter broke the back of the Eagles, who were brave despite a mountain of injuries.
Collingwood will face a few decisions at the selection table this week, with at least one forced change after Jordan De Goey was handed a three week suspension. Pat Lipinksi and Dan McStay are likely to be available after long absences with injury, while Beau McCreery is in doubt with an ankle injury.
Melbourne was set to regain Clayton Oliver from a hamstring injury, however the star midfielder will miss with an infected blister that forced him to spend multiple days in hospital this week. The Dees will have Michael Hibberd back in the side after being managed against Carllton, while Jake Bowey (concussion) and James Harmes (suspension) will miss against Collingwood.
The Dees ended a two game slide with an ugly seventeen point win over Carlton. Melbourne recorded +50 disposals, +29 contested possessions, +20 inside 50’s and +9 clearances. Despite their dominance in general play, the Demons were inefficient going forward kicking 8.13.
The ladder leaders have been irrepressible this season ranking as the number one defensive side in the league, holding opponents to 68 points per game. The Pies are also getting it done in the front half, averaging 94 points per game, the fifth most in the competition.
Melbourne have struggled offensively across the last three weeks registering scores of 76, 72 and 61 total points. The Demons inability to turn inside 50 entries into goals has been a major concern over the last fortnight, kicking goals from only 13.6% and 17.2% of their inside 50’s in their last two games.
Collingwood defence has been outstanding this season, and it will be the key factor in how they get on top in this game against a Melbourne outfit that hasn’t been prolific in front of goal. The Pies have won eight of their last nine games against the Demons, and will be too good once again in the Big Freeze at the G.
Collingwood
$1.78 (1.5 Units)
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Nick Daicos 30+ Disposals: Nick Daicos added another stellar performance to his remarkable season, with 30 disposals and 3 goals against the Eagles. Daicos is averaging 33 disposals per game in 2023, and has hit the 30 disposal mark on nine occasions.
Christian Petracca 30+ Disposals: Petracca has put together an impressive month, lifting in the absence of Clayton Oliver. Petracca has recorded at least 30 disposals in three of his last four games, and has loved playing against Collingwood, with 36 and 32 disposal performances against the Pies last season.
Tom Mitchell 25+ Disposals: Tom Mitchell has been one of the best recruits from the 2022 trade period, playing a huge role in the best team in the competition. Mitchell has produced performances of 36, 26, 29 and 30 disposals across his last four games, and is thriving at his new club.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.25
