Two Western Conference Game 6’s come at us on Saturday, with two teams looking to close out their respective series, whilst the other two try desperately to stay alive and force a game 7. First up, we head to the bay area where the Golden State Warriors will be doing their best to secure safe passage to the Western Conference Semi-Finals, when they take on the Sacramento Kings. Then, King James and the Lakers will host the Memphis Grizzlies, as they try to progress to the next round.
Check out our NBA betting tips for Saturday’s slate below, and good luck to everyone following us this post-season!
2022-23 NBA Playoffs Betting Tips: Saturday 29th April 2023
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Chase Center, 10:00am AEST
The Warriors managed to wrestle home court advantage from the Kings, with a 123-116 victory over the Kings on Thursday. This, despite Steph Curry shooting 2/10 from downtown, and De’Aaron Fox managing 42 minutes despite a broken finger. Both teams shot poorly from 3, however once the Warriors took the lead near half time, they never let up, despite the Kings keeping it close for the most part.
The Warriors were insane during the season at home (33-8), and haven’t missed a beat in the playoffs, with two wins at home to start the post-season. They ended up closing 2-point favourites in game 5 in Sacramento, and now line up as 7.5-point favourites at home. This tracks, and the handicap is probably too tight to have a bet here. I would lean the Kings, given it is a must-win situation for them, however I’m not convinced that they don’t give up if down late.
So, we look towards the total, which is currently sitting at 235.5, 2 points higher than the last matchup in game 5. Traditionally, totals go down as series’ go on, given the familiarity with teams and the fact possessions are slowing down. Given this total has been set even higher, I will attack the under. I believe this can happen in one of two ways. The first is that this match is tight, with both teams struggling in possession and the tightness of both slowing the pace down. The other is the Warriors get out to a decent sized early lead and the Kings cannot go with them. With two great offenses, I can’t go large with this bet, but I like it the most out of the side and total.
Under 235.5 total points
$1.88 (2 Units)
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
Crypto.com Arena, 12:30pm AEST
The Grizzlies closed 4.5-point favourites in game 5 at home, and with the switch back to LA, the number is switched to Lakers 4.5-point favourites. This would suggest home court advantage is 4.5 points, which I don’t agree with. Yes, home court could be seen to be slightly more than the regular season (2.5) in the playoffs, however I believe the longer the series goes on, the less the home court advantage should be.
The total has also crashed heavily from game 5, with the close in that game 222.5, with the total here sitting at 219. I agree with this move, and would still heavily lean on the under in this matchup. These two teams know each other well now, and there’s no real surprises in store, so I like the under to cash here.
But my best bet will be the Grizzlies to cover. I do believe the Lakers more than likely win and move into the second round; however, they looked tired in game 5, and there’s every chance this young Grizzlies squad can get it done and force a game 7.
Other Bet
Under 219.5 total points - $1.91 @ Betfair (1u)
Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5)
$1.99 (2 Units)
