Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, July 29th.
Sydney's midweek metro racing returns to Warwick Farm this Wednesday, with the track currently rated a Heavy 10, so it will be a complete bog. The rail is in the 3m position and it wouldn't surprise me to see them getting wide in the straight as the day goes on.
Find our preview and betting tips for the meeting below!
Best Bet: Race 5 – (8) Syncline
Best Value: Race 6 – (9) Browery Breeze
Very tricky start to the card. We have a horse on debut that has trialled well, and three other runners who look good chances and are from stables which go particularly well here at Warwick Farm. (1) Oslo makes his stable debut for Bjorn Baker, who has a phenomenal strike rate at WF this season, operating at 37%. He was formerly with Peter and Paul Snowden, but I’m very wary of him at his first start for Baker at Warwick Farm off a good trial. (3) Eye See Things brings solid metro form from her debut prep, finishing 2nd on the Kensington track at her first two starts. She resumes with two good trials under her belt. (8) Rathvilly Miss also brings some solid form. If you look back to last prep, she ran 3rd behind Dancing Gidget and Toffee Tongue, which is very good for a race like this. Drawn the inside, gets in with just 51kg and trialled well. (2) Quatum is on debut for Matt Dunn and Brenton Avdulla. Has trialled well four times but at the price I’ll be risking.
There’s two runners I’ll be backing here. (5) Celandine resumed with a win over 1200m here at Warwick Farm and now steps up to 1300m second up. She shouldn’t have any dramas with the extra 100m or the heavy ground. She’ll roll forward from the low draw and prove hard to run down again. (1) Matowatakpe won well here two starts ago over this track and distance and he’s the final runner for Bjorn Baker today. He dropped back from 1300m to 1100m last start but gets back up to 1300m today. Willing to forgive him for last start and back on his home deck, I think he’ll give this a very good shake at $6.50. Those are the only two I’m really interested and at $4.00 and $6.50 respectively, we can back both.
The staying race of the day looks a tricky one. I’ll be siding with those drawn inside gates, which typically have a good record over this sort of distance here at Warwick Farm. (4) Misty Summer goes on top. She has won two of her past three, with her failure over 2400m here two starts ago worth forgiving. She was caught wide for the first 800m of that race and it’s worth noting she started firm in the market at $3.90. She has since bounced back with victory at Gosford so I’ll give her another chance here. (6) Triskana has won her past two at Kembla Grange and Goulburn. While this is much tougher, she draws well and will land right up on speed. She’ll be competitive.
I think (9) Brutality is short enough here, even with 52kg and the blinkers going on first time. (1) Travancore is knocking on the door for another win, with two very narrow defeats leading into today. Mikayla Weir sticks with him today after riding last start and he drops to 57kg after carrying 59kg and 60kg in his past two starts. He draws well in barrier 3, which has a good record over this track and distance, and he has a good record at this track and distance. Should be fighting out the finish again. (4) Showminder was right behind Travancore last start, 0.1L away in 3rd. He does meet Travancore 1.5kg worse off at the weights from that race but he draws ideally in barrier 1 and looks a good chance. (8) Galahad’s Quest rarely runs a bad race.
Two pretty promising horses clash here. Sticking with (8) Syncline who has resumed with two wins at Taree and Hawkesbury this prep. He comes to midweek metro grade now and Bowman goes on for Kris Lees. He’s drawn a bit sticky – out in barrier 9 at the time of writing – at a distance where inside gates are typically best suited, but he’s a pretty promising type and can overcome that. (5) Royal Banquet has now won his past three, two of which have been this prep. Those wins came at Scone and Newcastle. He’s pretty versatile so can land wherever he’s comfortable. Nathan Doyle has had plenty of success at the provincials but he’s yet to post a winner in town and he’s had a couple of similar horses (in terms of profile) fail when they’ve come to the city recently, so I’ll stick with Kris Lees who has the runs on the board.
(9) Browery Breeze could be a decent each way bet at double figure odds here. You can completely forget she went around last start at Kensington, where she settled last from the wide gate and ran home into 4th on a day where anything back in the field was given absolutely no hope. It was a leaders’ highway that day, so her run was actually pretty good all things considered. Prior to that she ran 2nd over 1300m here at Warwick Farm. Inside barriers over the 1400m here are a good thing, so hopefully with the aid of that draw, she can settle a touch closer to the speed. Goes best on wet ground so conditions will suit. I’d be wary of (3) So Wicked having her third start for Waller now.
Two horses I’m backing to close out the day here. (6) Escaped won well first up at Hawkesbury, at his first start since finishing down the track in last year’s Rosebud. Up to 1200m second up, expect him to lead again and be very hard to run down. The stable has a decent record here and this looks their best chance of the day in my opinion. The value is (4) Accelerato, who gets the blinkers back on today. He won here four starts back and has since run well in Saturday grade. Completely forgive him for his effort last start at Canterbury, where he was wide without cover toward the back of the field – an unwinnable position to be in at that track. Barrier 2 is perfect; conditions will suit and he’s back on his home deck. $7.00 looks a decent price.
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