Sunday afternoon NRL action kicks off at Brookvale, with the Sea Eagles hosting the Dragons in a pivotal matchup. As both teams sit on the cusp of the top 8, results like this can prove the difference at season’s end as to whether your team makes the finals or misses out. This should be a good one.
Catch our tips for the game below, and if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 15 Preview & Betting Tips
Manly Sea Eagles vs St George Illawarra Dragons
4 Pines Park, Sunday 16th June, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Sea Eagles come into this week off the back of a tough 32-22 loss to the Panthers in round 14, where winger Tommy Talau crossed for four tries! It wasn’t enough though, as the Panthers dominated in the middle, churning out 2250 metres, which is the second most of any team this season, on their way to a six tries to five victory. The Sea Eagles will be happy with some aspects of their game, scoring five tries on the back of such a lopsided metres gained statistic at the top of the list, however the 10 line-breaks conceded and 59 missed tackles will be cause for concern for head coach Anthony Seibold moving forward.
As for the Dragons, they hammered the Tigers last Thursday night, running out 56-14 winners, claiming their second straight win and third from their past four games. The Dragons are now genuine top 8 chances, however despite the huge win last week, their for and against still sits in the negatives. They were close to perfect in the second half last weekend, running in 7 unanswered tries, with winger Zac Lomax scoring 32 points by himself in a massive effort. His Origin debut has certainly done wonders for him, and he looks likely to kick on to bigger and better things.
Match Preview
These teams met back in round 4, where it was the Dragons getting the better of the Sea Eagles 20-12 at WIN Stadium as 7.5-point underdogs. It was a weird game of football, with both teams making 15 errors, and it was ultimately the Dragons who managed to execute better where it mattered most. The total closed 45.5 and was never in too much doubt of going under.
As for this matchup, the Sea Eagles opened 7.5-point favourites prior to last weekend’s results, before re-opening just 6.5-point favourites. Money has continued to come in on the Dragons, to where the Sea Eagles now sit as 5.5-point favourites.
Despite how well the Dragons have been playing of late, I see some value here in the Sea Eagles. The Dragons have had the knack this year of losing big when they lose games, losing by a 13+ margin in five of their six losses this year. The Sea Eagles have been good at 4 Pines this season, and with the spread under a converted try, I like the Sea Eagles here.
As for the total, it opened a high 50.5, and has been bet up to 51.5. This is an interesting move, given the weather in Sydney over the past 48 hours, however the weather is supposed to be fine by kick-off. I make a fair total 48.5, with the Sea Eagles being a heavy overs team (9-4) making a 51.5 total make more sense. Either way, I won’t be touching it, with a slight numbers lean to the under.
So, I’ll take the Sea Eagles to cover at home, but we will continue keeping our staking low as we make our way through the Origin period.
Sea Eagles -5.5
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Sea Eagles (13+) – As above, the Dragons have lost by 13+ in five of their six losses. If they get behind early, the Dragons might once again fold.
Z Lomax (1+ try) – Lomax is one of the form players in the comp, and I expect him to get at least one try this week against a poor Sea Eagles’ left edge defence.
T Koula (1+ try) – Koula will be attacking the weaker right edge defence of the Dragons, which has conceded 48% of tries all year. Koula is due, after a quiet couple of games back at centre.
SGM Odds: $15.00 at Neds
