Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Winter Challenge Preview

July 31st 2015, 10:17pm, By: tim_tips

After coming very close to an $8.50 winner on his BYB debut at last week's Bletchingly Stakes, our resident horse racing expert is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season. 

Rosehill Race 6 - The Paslode Winter Challenge (LR) - 1500m

The feature race of the day at Rosehill is the Listed Winter Challenge over 1500m which sees a very competitive field and a very tight market. No rain is forecast for Sydney so I'd expect the track to be somewhere in the Soft range.

SPURTONIC finished dead last when resuming last start where he really didn't handle the wet track. In saying that he hasn't been at his best for a while and its hard to see him turning it around here with top weight.

RUGGED CROSS recorded a narrow win last start over this track and distance on the very heavy track. Meets a few he beat there again today but goes up 2kg in the weights and will see a firmer track. Certainly in it if the track remains soft but this looks a bit more competitive so I have a couple ahead of him.

YOU'LL NEVER won successive races back in May and followed that with two placings. Last start ran 7th behind Rugged Cross, beaten 2.6L. Gets a swing in the weights and the slightly firmer track will probably help. Epect him to be coming home hard.

WOULDN'T IT BE NICE ran a narrow 3rd behind Rugged Cross last start at big odds. Steps out to 1500m for the first time which might test him a little bit but does have the benefit of the inside gate. Interesting runner but not quite in my top 4.

DISCLAIMER comes into this first up from a spell and will be going around for race fitness. Only one win from 6 when first up and has never placed at the track either. Look out for his final 200m to see how he has returned. 

EIGELSTEIN ran 3rd of 5 last start behind Kenjorwood. Should be at his absolute peak fitness-wise at his 5th run back from a spell and he's been backed early in the market. Gets in on the minimum weight of 54.5kg and the slightly firmer track will benefit him. However I still have a couple ahead of him here.

CANNY BALLAD finished close enough to last when resuming last start behind Rugged Cross and a few others. He is looking for longer but does tend to improve 2nd up and will improve on the firmer track. Nicely drawn and gets in light, I wouldn't be surprised to see him run a big race but look for him later in his prep.

NOELA'S CHOICE won impressively two starts back over the Randwick Mile on a Heavy track and last start ran another big race where she just got too far back in the run and ran home strongly to finish 5th, beaten 2L. Wide draw today so will go back again and if she can position a bit closer she will be right up there in the finish. Probably needs the track to stay a Soft 6 or worse.

GREAT ESTEEM has been runner up at his past two starts and will get all the favours today. Drops 3.5kg from last start and is drawn ideally in barrier 4. Will appreciate the drying track and he looks to have a great chance of winning this.

KEEPIT TO YOURSELF comes out of the same race at Great Esteem where he finished 3rd, 2.3L further back.  Was unlucky not to finish closer after copping a decent check around the 400-500m mark. Gets Tommy Berry on board today and is a chance of running a place again, but does give Great Esteem 3.5kg today. 

Verdict

GREAT ESTEEM has absolutely everything in his favour today and looks primed to win. Drops down to the minimum weight and will get a beautiful run so he goes on top of NOELA'S CHOICE who just got too far back last time. She will be hitting the line hard again, as will YOU'LL NEVER who will improve with the drying surface. KEEPIT TO YOURSELF is a place chance once again after an unlucky 3rd last start. Very competitive race nonetheless with about six realistic winning chances.

1st Great Esteem ($6.00 at Ladbrokes)
2nd Noela's Choice ($6.00 at Luxbet)
3rd You'll Never ($5.00 at Luxbet)
4th KeepIt To Yourself ($18 at CrownBet)

* best prices accurate at time of publishing

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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