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Inglis Villiers Stakes 1600m - Group 2
The Group 2 Villiers Stakes over the mile is the feature race on the card at Randwick on Saturday and we have a huge field of 20 runners set to line up.
At the time of writing the Randwick track is rated a Soft 5 after 6mm of rain on Wednesday night but with fine weather and 35 degrees predicted on Friday I think we'll see the track somewhere around the Good 3 or 4 range come Saturday.
With 20 runners you can guarantee the race will be run at a good tempo, and there's certainly no shortage of speed horses in this field. Rhythm To Spare looks the likely leader from the good barrier, while Ninth Legion, Moral Victory and possibly Puccini could come across from wider draws. God's In Him and Frespanol should use their good barriers to take up a handy position on speed too.
Plenty of runners to get through so we will keep the comments for each runner short:
ITS SOMEWHAT: Returned with a good performance first up under a big weight. Has the quality but lumps the top weight again and draws poorly.
I'M IMPOSING: Second up here off an eight week break. Likely to need another run before stepping up to 2000m and will have to come from last here.
NINTH LEGION: Hasn't won for a long time. Has to carry 58kg again here and will have to push forward from the wide gate. Pass.
PUCCINI: Group 1 performer in NZ but struggled in Australia. Bounced sharply back to form at his first start for Darren Weir last start and despite the wide barrier he could feature in the finish.
RED EXCITEMENT: Talented horse having his third run back from a long spell. Ran reasonably well last start but from the from the wide barrier he faces a tough task.
RHYTHM TO SPARE: Comes into this with consecutive wins over the mile under his belt which included the Kilmore Cup. Looks the likely leader from barrier 8. Roughie.
PHEIDON: Going horribly and I reckon it's days with Gai Waterhouse are limited. Couldn't touch it.
TINTO: Had plenty to do from a long way back last start. Comes into this 3rd up from a long spell. Any rain would help but he's drawn to get a great run. Place hope.
MALICE: Racing fairly consistently in similar races. Has had a month since his last run so should be fresh. Drawn to get a beautiful run and shapes as an eachway hope.
FRESPANOL: Beaten as favourite in the Festival Stakes where he settled much further back than he normally does. From barrier 1 he should be very handy. Good chance to bounce back.
CASINO DANCER: Won two Group 3's and placed in a Group 2 since the blinkers went on. Drawn well, might need a touch of luck, but can't knock her form. Eachway.
MIGHTY LUCKY: Surprise winner of the Festival Stakes but he was peaking for that race. This is harder and steps up to 1600m which could test him. Happy to risk.
TELEPATHIC: Won dominantly as odds on favourite last start. Drops back from 2000m to 1600m interestingly. Wide draw shouldn't matter too much and she's a chance.
ZANBAGH: Come back in great order with a win first up and a good 4th in the Festival Stakes last start. Drawn terrible but expect her to be running on.
GOD'S IN HIM: Narrow defeat in a Group 2 two starts ago with this weight. Had to carry 61kg last start first up off an eight week break. Much better suited here with 53kg. Great chance with the good draw.
HAPPY CLAPPER: Took a big step up last start when carrying 60.5kg to win over 1500m. 3rd up here and back down to 53kg, drawn perfectly and rates a huge chance.
TIMELESS PRINCE: Placed here last start in a small field in lower grade. Aiming too high here.
KEEPIT TO YOURSELF: Going horribly.
MORAL VICTORY: 2nd in the Goulburn Cup last start and led all the way over 1400m here three starts back where he beat Telepathic. Will be one of the leaders and could run a cheeky race.
DREAM FOLK: Not good enough.
Summary
Good race with a few progressive types. Despite the large number of runners I really think there's only a few genuine winning chances.
Under the race conditions I'm happy to stick with the very progressive Happy Clapper who drops down the 53kg after winning under 61kg last start. He draws to get a fantastic run from barrier 6 just behind the speed and he should be hard to beat.
Behind him I think the likes of God's In Him, It's Somewhat and Telepathic should all run well and are all winning chances, while Puccini, Frespanol and Casino Dancer all rate well at bigger odds.
1st HAPPY CLAPPER
2nd FRESPANOL
3rd GOD'S IN HIM
4th CASINO DANCER
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