Saturday Horse Racing: 2015 Summer Cup Preview & Betting Tips

December 25th 2015, 12:01am, By: tim_tips

Our resident horse racing expert Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips.

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday. If you're placing a bet, we suggest you punt at one of bookmakers we consider the best Australian sports betting sites

Summer Cup 2000m - Group 3

The Group 3 Summer Cup over 2000m is the feature event on the Randwick card on Boxing Day and it only sees a small field of 7 runners to compete for the $125,000 purse.

The Randwick track is currently rated a Heavy 8 and with further rain forecast for Friday and Saturday it looks certain to stay as it is. 

With the lack of any sort of leader in the race it appears that this could be run at a very slow tempo, but you never know in these small fields as there is always a chance that a mid-race move could be made. Kiseki Dane and possibly even Junoob could roll forward to take up the lead, but all of these horses prefer to settle off the pace so the first furlong of the race should be interesting. 

Let's go through the runners:

JUNOOB: One of two Chris Waller runners entered here and he completely turned his form around to win the Ballarat Cup last start carrying 60kg. He comes into this off a 5 week break but has had a trial to keep his fitness up. He excels at this distance having placed 10 out of 15 times, and has finished in the top 2 at 3 of his 4 starts over 2000m at Randwick. The concern is the way he mixes his form, and he typically prefers firm ground so carrying 61kg on the Heavy track is a tough ask. Best horse in the race but he has it all to do.

I'M IMPOSING: Having his final career start here and is aiming to make it a hat trick of wins in this exact race. He is another that loves the 2000m of Randwick, placing in 3 of his 4 runs over the track and distance. He isn't racing in great form, finishing well back at his last two starts, but three starts ago he produced a great run behind Complacent over this track and distance. He can handle the wet so is a decent chance if at his best.

MIGHTY LUCKY: Produced a great win two starts ago and backed that up with another good run in a much harder race last start. He finished 2.2L off the winner Happy Clapper and that form brings him right into this. However, he steps up to 2000m for the first time and he really doesn't like the wet - he hasn't won from 9 starts on wet tracks - so there are concerns there. Racing well but can't back him on a Heavy track.

SEBRINA: Racing well in easier grade than this. Ran 2nd by a nose in a Benchmark 80 last start under 60kg so the drop in weight to 54kg helps her cause here. No problems over the distance and she has won on Heavy ground before which a few others haven't so she looks well placed in this field. 

BANKSTERS BONUS: Put in a terrific run behind Telepathic two starts ago when he was first up (and that was on a heavy track) but failed to back that up last start when finishing well back in the field. Typically he needs a couple of runs to come good so he is much better suited 3rd up here. Proven he can run on the wet, gets a great run from barrier 3 and well placed off 54kg. Could be a big chance but needs to get back to his best.

GET ON THE GRANGE: Won in easier grade last start over 1900m where he beat the same horse that Sebrina beat a few starts back so the form ties in nicely there. That was over 1900m so the 2000m shouldn't pose a problem. Does go well on wet tracks having placed in 9 of his 15 runs on rain affected going. Much harder race here and will have to improve but he is a roughie.

KISEKI DANE: Looks to be going terribly this time in. He weakened badly last start in a Benchmark 67 and his form on wet ground is hardly inspiring either despite a few wins. Not going well enough to win this.

Summary

I think there are probably 4 or 5 that could win this without surprising but I do think the wet track will rule out a couple such as Junoob and Mighty Lucky. I think the 3 best chances lie with Sebrina, I'm Imposing and Banksters Bonus who have all shown an ability to race well on rain affected going. SEBRINA is the most progressive of that lot and probably holds the key as she is racing in good form unlike a couple of these. She gets a big weight drop and can win if things go her way. I'M IMPOSING will have to turn his form around but Waller will have him spot on in his bid for a hat trick in this race and he will do what he can to send him off a winner at his final start. He's another that has handled the wet in the past and can win if he runs to his best. BANKSTERS BONUS is one at huge odds that I fancy to run well. Forget his run last start and focus on his first up run behind Telepathic on the heavy track. Much better suited back on wet ground with a low weight today and third up from a break. Good each-way hope. Next best is JUNOOB if he handles the wet, and the same can be said for MIGHTY LUCKY.

1 - BANKSTERS BONUS (E/W)
2 - SEBRINA
3 - I'M IMPOSING
4 - JUNOOB

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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