The NRL heads to the Golden West in Bathurst, as the Panthers make their annual pilgrimage to the regional NSW town to take on the Knights. With the Panthers missing five Origin players, and several other regular first graders out injured, can a Ponga-less Knights side lacking confidence take advantage and seize the two points?
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Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights
Location: Carrington Park – Bathurst
Date: Saturday, 24th May
Time: 5:30pm AEST
Odds: Panthers ($1.48) vs Knights ($2.65)
Line: Panthers (-5.5)
Points: 43.5
Odds and lines provided with thanks to Ladbrokes. Note that odds and lines can fluctuate throughout the week and are correct at the time of writing.
Match Preview
The Panthers come into this round 12 clash off the bye, but it would be hard to say they are fresh. Already without five of their finest due to Origin, the Panthers are also without Scott Sorensen (suspension), and lost two other forwards to injury during the bye week (Papali’i and Garner). The last time we saw the Panthers, they drew with the Cowboys, despite leading by 12 with under 10 minutes remaining. This Panthers side just don’t have it this season, and this matchup with the Knights looms as a banana peel of a game.
Speaking of the Knights, we last saw them in round 11 getting flogged by the bottom-of-the-table Eels at home, losing 28-6. With confidence at an all-time low, the Knights were dominated in every facet of the game. Kalyn Ponga was decent statistically, running for 254 metres, busting the line twice, and breaking 6 tackles, but it wasn’t near enough for his team. This game against the Panthers is an absolute must-win, with a loss surely ending any chance of the finals for the Newcastle team this season.
These teams met twice last year, and whilst the Panthers won both games, they weren’t all one-sided. In round 15, the Knights hosted the Panthers as 11.5-point home underdogs, with a total of 45.5. Whilst it looked like another Panther drubbing was on the cards after the visitors led 20-6 at halftime, the Knights got back into the game after halftime, trimming the lead to two, before a Dylan Edwards try stopped the bleeding. The Panthers eventually won 26-18.
The teams met again in round 22 at BlueBet Stadium, with the Panthers closing massive 18.5-point favourites, and a total of 48.5. The Knights were in this contest all the way until the end, with the scores tied at 18 after 70 minutes. A late Cleary try got the Panthers over the line, but the Knights showed they can go with this Panthers team.
This week, the Panthers opened 8.5-point favourites, which immediately looked way too big, given the losses for the Panthers. It didn’t take long for money to come in on the Knights, with the number now sitting under a converted try at 5.5. I would make this spread 11.5 with both teams at full strength, so the opening line of 8.5 was laughable. 5.5 is far closer to what I would make the number now, so I don’t see too much value there.
The total opened 43.5, and it hasn’t moved all week. I think the under is the play here, given the amount of attacking talent lost for both teams. It cannot be a big bet, given the uncertainty, particularly with the Panthers, but this bet offers the most value in my opinion. Small bet, keep your powder try for post Origin.
Under 43.5 Points
$1.94 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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To follow our multi, just click on the BoomBet BetShare button below and our same game multi selections will be added straight into your bet slip on BoomBet. You can then enter how much you wish to wager, and with a single click, your bet has been placed!
Leg 1: Knights ML – The Panthers have been poor over the last few years without their Origin stars, and the value lies in the Knights here at the moneyline.
Leg 2: P Alamoti (1+ try) – Six tries in 10 games so far this season, I like the Panthers flyer to get over the line in this one.
Leg 3: F Sharpe (1+ try) – Sharpe’s price is great in my opinion, and the fact he’s at fullback and not 5/8 makes this even better. Sharpe will tear this Panthers’ defence apart.
SGM Odds: $9.50 at BoomBet
