Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, December 21st.
Racing returns to headquarters in Victoria, with a nine-race card scheduled for Flemington. Our racing expert @Tim_Tips has previewed every race for the day below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, December 21st
Best Bet: Race 9 - (12) Sebrekate
Best Value: Race 6 - (5) Antagoniser
(4) Defibrillate has raced six times in Australia for five wins and a 0.2L 2nd. The son of Shocking made a good impression at his first start at Flemington last weekend, winning over this course and distance by a length. He carried 60kg on that occasion and drops to 54kg today with the rise in grade, and even though this is a tougher race, he's flying and can't be overlooked. (2) Secret Blaze is another that's going particularly well this prep. She recorded two wins on the bounce before running 2nd in the Pakenham Cup last start. (7) El Don ran 2nd to Defibrillate last start and has to give him a weight swing today, but he's racing well without winning and from barrier 1 should be somewhere in the finish again. (6) Midas Prince and (1) Alfarris next best.
Going to side with (6) La Zola each way here at double figure odds. She recorded the fastest final 400m and 200m of the meeting first up at Mornington when flashing home from back in the field, before leading all the way to break her maiden at Wodonga last start. It will be interesting to see what they do from barrier 11 as she's probably more effective ridden off speed. The 1400m shouldn't be an issue and with a few queries over the favoured runners, she appeals at a valuable price. (1) Parmie might just need another run given she's 1000m up to 1400m today. (3) Ruler By Choice is undefeated in two starts so it's hard to knock her but the form out of that last race is questionable given she dead-heated with More Sundays. (4) Need New Friends was a good run last start but the 1400m might just see her out at this stage, while (2) Combat Order was well held last start in the same race as Need New Friends.
(2) Bold Star returned from a spell with a terrific win at Moonee Valley, despite having little go his way. That was his first win when fresh from a spell in five attempts, and proved that he's basically a different horse to what he was earlier in his career. His only prior second up run was a win and when Gordon Richards brings them to Melbourne, they inevitably run extemely well. (3) Wise Hero had support first up and cruised into the race until he got tired in the last furlong. That was his first run back from 70 weeks off so he should improve. (4) Flying Krupt has been very competitive in Melbourne before and has never missed a place first up from five attempts. I'd definitely be including her at double figure odds. (7) Wherever Whenever and (9) Propelle both come off luckless runs and should be competitive.
(6) D'aguilar goes on top. He won his first two career starts impressively before spending the best part of 13 months off the track. He returned with a very good effort first up at Pakenham over 1200m, where he hit the line in the best final 200m, 400m and 600m of the entire meeting. He's only going to improve with that run under the belt and with the step up to 1400m. He'll need to come from a long way off the speed given he'll go back from barrier 10, but he looks the horse with the most upside and he should get his chance to wind up at Flemington.
(8) Thousand Wishes comes off a win at Sandown last start and looks to find another suitable race. She beat home Lianne on that occasion and Lianne came out and ran well here last week so the form has some merit to it. She's yet to place in two runs when third up from a spell but I'll overlook that and give her another chance today. She draws well and should prove hard to beat. (5) Great Duchess was only narrowly beaten last start and now steps up to the mile third up. Last time she raced at this track and distance she won and that was only three starts ago in July. (10) Red Heeler comes off successive wins and draws well, while (2) Flop is racing well without winning and must be thrown in numbers as at least a terrific place chance.
(8) Thousand Wishes
$4.80
(1) Can't Be Done was outlcassed last start but his first up run down the straight behind Garner was good enough to win this. The 3kg claim is useful and the wide draw isn't a bad thing. He should be hard to beat. I think the value in the race is the Mark Kavanagh runner (5) Antagoniser at $10. We saw Craig ride one for Kavanagh during the week and it was unlucky not to win. This colt has had three starts and he's been impressive in two of them, winning at Bendigo before going down by a nose to Heirborn over 1400m here back in August. Definitely having something on him at the odds.
(5) Yulong January should be hard to beat once again on the back of successive victories at Ballarat and Pakenham. He's drawn well and drops to 54.5kg after carrying 59kg last start. There's no reason he can't win again. I'm pretty keen to back (3) Violate though with $6.00 on offer. Last time he raced I made him my best of the day but he didn't run to his best and was sent straight to the paddock. He returns today in an easier race than what he contested back in October so I have to be with him again. He's at his best when he's first up and his record here at the track and distance is good. (4) Cappo D'Oro is an interesting runner. He's a former WA horse now trained by Patrick Payne. It's worth noting that Billy Egan is in the saddle as he's the stable's main rider. (9) Kazio has a good third up record and will be competitive.
(2) Sure Knee won't get many better chances to win another race. She was a touch disappointing at Moonee Valley last start but that probably wasn't an ideal track for her, so getting back to Flemington looks a big plus. She won here two starts back during Cup week and overall she's finished in the top two in four of her five starts here. (7) Ocean's Fourteen looks a good chance second up from a spell with Craig Williams in the saddle. He's undefeated from two career starts when second up and he comes off a good first up win after more than a year off the track. (11) Aktau is the interesting runner in the race, having his first start in Australia after racing in the UK. He was a winner over 2250m last time we saw him so the mile first up might be a touch short for him, but he's not hopeless at all.
(7) Ocean's Fourteen
$6.50
(12) Sebrekate has a good first up record with three top-two finishes from as many starts. First up last prep he ran into a handy little horse called Bivouac, which looks a pretty reasonable formline! Craig Williams is booked to ride so he should get his chance, and this looks a very nice race for him. He's also won down the straight previously which is a bonus. (5) Moor Wanted is the value in the race and I'll be backing him as well. He was meant to run during Cup week but was scratched on the morning of the race. I tipped him that day and made him one of my best bets at big odds. He returns today with Michael Poy in the saddle. He goes well fresh and his record at the track and distance is also good. When Peter Chow brings them to town they typically run well so I'll take the $8.50 available.
Value: (5) Moor Wanted $8.50
