The 2026 AFL Finals Series continues with the Qualifying Final at Optus Stadium as minor premiers Fremantle host fourth-placed Hawthorn. Draftstars are offering $70,000 in guaranteed prize money in their main daily fantasy tournament.
Welcome to the real thing. Fremantle finished the home-and-away season as minor premiers with a 19-4 record and are installed as 14.5 point favourites at Optus Stadium, their fortress. Hawthorn arrive as genuine finals contenders after finishing fourth — their consistency across 2026 has been one of the stories of the season and their midfield depth gives them a platform to compete. The selection news is significant on both sides. Hawthorn welcome back Jack Ginnivan to add a forward option of elite skill and running capacity. Fremantle are making wholesale changes from the side they rested in the final round, with five players returning including Murphy Reid and Jye Amiss. The Dockers go into finals with close to their best 23 available, and the home crowd at Optus Stadium will generate an atmosphere that this young Hawthorn side have rarely experienced in away finals. This is a genuinely fascinating matchup with real fantasy complexity, let break it all down!
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AFL $70,000+ Qualifying Final at Draftstars
AFL $7,500+ Qualifying Final High Roller ($150 Entry) at Draftstars
AFL $3,000+ Qualifying Final Mini ($2 Entry) at Draftstars
AFL $1,500+ Qualifying Final Micro (50c Entry) at Draftstars
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AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Qualifying Final – Fremantle vs Hawthorn
AFL Fantasy Dockers vs Hawks – Where to Attack?
As common with finals, this is a brutally tough game to analyse from a stats perspective as both sides were extremely stingy across the field to their opposition this season.
Let me start with the rucks as a great example of this: both rucks face historically restrictive matchups and you will need to really consider if you want to spend your salary dollars in this space. Hawthorn have been giving up just under 11 points below league average — the most restrictive ruck matchup in the competition. Luke Jackson playing for Fremantle faces that wall. And going the other way, Fremantle have been giving up just under 10 points below average to rucks. Lloyd Meek playing for Hawthorn faces that wall. In finals, both rucks will be given time and resources to compete, but the data is clear and the question will be do you just punt this position and look for better options to spend up.
So where do you attack? The answer is through the midfield against the Hawks and the half-back corridors against the Dockers. Hawthorn have been giving up above average points to inside midfielders, which makes the primary Fremantle midfield attack the avenue of play especially at home where they are favourites. Going the other way, Fremantle have been giving up above average to general defenders and designated kickers, which benefits the Hawks who love to setup their play from the back line.
Both teams have been locking down opposition forwards, especially the talls with the strong backlines being cornerstone of each teams strategy. However, the Hawks have been vulnerable to more general forwards giving up over 2 points per game above league average to this role, and given Fremantle are favoured to win this will be the route I will be going down.
Game Script – Fremantle midfielders and general forwards, Hawks defenders
AFL Fantasy Dockers vs Hawks – Our Value Fantasy Picks
Mason Cox ($6,850) I love this option of taking the value play in the ruck and spending elsewhere. Cox has shown ability to produce a 60+ point game, which would be a great return in this contest where both the big boys will be going to war against each other and potentially struggle to top the 100 point mark given the matchup data.
Josh Battle ($9,930) … I am fully expecting a game script where the Hawks possess the football in the backline during this matchup, especially early in the contest. Battle’s price is probably at it’s lowest point in the season under $10k, and for a player averaging 78 points per game on the season this is near a lock for me in this matchup. Barrass will look to lock down Josh Traecey which means Battle will play a bit more loose and pickup more ball.
AFL Fantasy Dockers vs Hawks – Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Karl Amon ($11,480) is the standout mid-price play on this entire slate and his record against Fremantle is one of the most compelling opponent-specific records of the season. He has posted 114, 119 and 77 in his three most recent games against the Dockers — two consecutive triple-figure ceiling scores in this exact fixture before a quieter 77, averaging 103.3 in this matchup. His price has dipped to close the year after swinging forward but I am expecting a swing back for this matchup with Ginnivan back into the lineup, and this will be a great opportunity to take advantage of that if some of the other fantasy players are not expecting the change. High risk high reward here.
Murphy Reid ($11,660) returns from injury for Fremantle and is an interesting mid-price play at a price suppressed by games where he looked to be battling injury. This matchup is made for Fremantle’s general forwards and I expect the youngster to stand up to his potential in this huge final.
AFL Fantasy Dockers vs Hawks – Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Andrew Brayshaw ($14,490) is the Fremantle premium lock and his form coming into this qualifying final is as good as it has been all season. He has posted 93, 97 and 71 in his last three for a last-three average of 87 — the 71 the quiet game but the 93 and 97 bookending it confirm the floor is firmly above 90 when his contested ball work fires. His three most recent games against Hawthorn have produced 85, 138 and 84 — that 138 is a genuinely exceptional ceiling score in this exact fixture. Hawthorn are conceding slightly above average to inside midfielders and Brayshaw’s quality means he generates elite scoring regardless.
Caleb Serong ($14,920) is the second Fremantle premium to lock in alongside Brayshaw and his form has been building to a finals crescendo. He has posted 79, 112 and 94 in his last three with that 112 his standout, and his three games against Hawthorn have produced 104, 103 and 88, which bodes well for the fact that the Hawks are one of the few teams that don’t go to a full lockdown tag against Serong. Anytime that is the case you can expect a 100+ point game, and with Calebs price been suppressed to under $15k due to constant tags all season this is a total lock and load play for me.
Here is our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for the Dockers vs Hawks Qualifying Final
Weather Report for the Qualifying Final
Optus Stadium (Perth) — 15 degrees, clear. Perfect finals conditions under lights at Optus Stadium.
AFL Betting Markets – Dockers vs Hawks Qualifying Final
Odds: Fremantle ($1.43) vs Hawthorn ($2.86)
Points: 163.5
Line: Fremantle -14.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Thursday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
