Monday Night Football closes out NFL Week 17 with a matchup that looks straightforward on the surface but carries plenty of betting nuance once you zoom out. The Los Angeles Rams head to Atlanta as firm road favourites, with the market opening around Rams -8 and a total of 49.5. This is a classic late-season spot where motivation, rest, and structural edges matter just as much as raw talent.
We break it all down in our full betting preview below!
NFL Week 17 Rams at Falcons Betting Tips
Last Week Recap
Los Angeles Rams (Week 16 @ Seahawks)
The Rams lost 38–37 in overtime in a divisional Thursday night shootout that was equal parts explosive and painful. Los Angeles had chances to put it away, but Seattle rallied late and finished the job in OT.
Matthew Stafford was immense, throwing for 457 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INTs, and the Rams generated points consistently across all four quarters. But the game swung on two themes: (1) the Rams’ inability to fully bury Seattle when they had control, and (2) Seattle’s ability to flip field position and cash in during a frantic fourth quarter and overtime. The Seahawks finished with 171 rushing yards and got explosives on the ground, including Kenneth Walker III’s 55-yard TD run.
From a prop/usage lens, the headline was that Puka Nacua remained the offensive engine: 13 targets, 8 catches, 96 yards, and a TD. The number didn’t clear this week’s huge line, but the role was exactly what we want heading into MNF — elite involvement, high-leverage looks, and constant chain-moving work.
Key takeaway for Week 17: the Rams didn’t get the result, but the offence is humming — and now they get extra rest to reset, clean up situational edges, and come out sharp.
Atlanta Falcons (Week 16 @ Cardinals)
Atlanta beat Arizona 26–19, snapping a long drought in that building and doing it with a balanced approach built around Bijan Robinson’s versatility and timely scoring from Kirk Cousins.
Cousins went 21/35 for 197 yards, 2 passing TDs, and an INT, and he also added a rushing TD in a game where Atlanta consistently found answers in the second half. Bijan was the matchup breaker: 76 rushing yards plus 7 catches for 92 yards and a receiving TD, which is exactly the kind of profile that travels regardless of game script. Tyler Allgeier also chipped in with a solid 79 rushing yards on 16 carries, keeping Atlanta physical and on schedule.
Key takeaway for Week 17: the Falcons can compete when they’re on schedule and playing balanced football — but that becomes much harder against a Rams team that can score quickly and force Atlanta into catch-up mode.
Spread Betting
Bet: Rams -8 (Best Bet)
This is the clearest edge on the board.
The Rams are structurally superior across all three phases, and this is the type of late-season matchup where that gap tends to widen rather than shrink. Atlanta may be at home, but there’s little evidence that home-field advantage offsets motivation and execution differentials at this stage of the season.
Three key reasons the Rams -8 stands out:
1) Extra rest and preparation
Los Angeles played on Thursday Night Football in Week 16, giving them additional recovery time and a longer preparation window. In December, that matters. Fresh legs, sharper installs, and better situational planning often show up early — exactly when favourites need to establish control.
2) Falcons lack incentive and resilience
Atlanta’s season is effectively over. Once adversity hits — a missed tackle, an early Rams touchdown, a stalled drive — there’s limited reason to believe the Falcons respond with urgency. These are the spots where underdogs quietly unravel.
3) Rams can dictate game script
Los Angeles are comfortable playing from ahead. They can sustain drives, drain clock, and force opponents into predictable passing situations. Atlanta’s defence has struggled badly when asked to defend extended possessions, particularly against teams that stay balanced.
This number could easily close closer to double digits.
Verdict: Rams -8 is the best bet.
Total Points Market
Lean: Under 49.5
The total feels slightly inflated given the likely game script.
If the Rams build a lead — which the spread suggests — this game tilts toward controlled possessions rather than chaos. Los Angeles are happy to bleed clock when ahead, and Atlanta’s offence is not built to force shootouts unless game flow breaks perfectly.
Atlanta’s scoring path likely runs through sustained Bijan Robinson usage rather than explosive, quick-strike touchdowns. That style eats clock and caps total-play volume. On the other side, the Rams don’t need to score in bunches late if they’re protecting a lead.
Verdict: Under 49.5 is a disciplined lean, not a must-play.
Key Players & Prop Markets
Puka Nacua — Over 109.5 Receiving Yards (Best Prop)
Ladder to 150+ yards
Nacua remains the focal point of the Rams’ passing attack and is priced like a ceiling outcome is likely, and who would bet against it this week? His target share, route depth, and role on third down all point to another double-digit target game.
With Davante Adams listed as doubtful, there’s additional confidence that the Rams will continue to funnel their passing offence through Nacua rather than spreading volume thin. Atlanta have struggled to contain elite route runners, particularly those operating between the numbers.
This is a strong single-play over, with clear ladder appeal.
Play: Over 109.5 receiving yards
Ladder: 125+ and 150+ yards
Bijan Robinson — Over 125.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards @ $1.86
Ladder to 150+ yards
Robinson is Atlanta’s offence. In neutral or negative game script, his involvement actually increases via receiving usage, which protects his yardage floor even if the Falcons fall behind.
The Rams are disciplined defensively, but Robinson’s versatility creates mismatches regardless of alignment. Screen passes, angle routes, and outside runs all remain live, even if Atlanta struggle to score touchdowns.
As long as Robinson stays healthy, volume alone puts this number in play.
Play: Over 125.5 rush + rec yards
Ladder: 150+ yards
Final Thoughts & Tips
This is a classic late-season NFL betting setup where clarity beats creativity. The Rams are better, healthier, better rested, and far more motivated. Atlanta has individual talent but lack the structural cohesion and incentive to match four quarters of disciplined football.
If Los Angeles start fast, this game should tilt firmly in their favour and stay there. Atlanta may move the ball in patches through Bijan Robinson, but sustained resistance feels unlikely once scoreboard pressure mounts.
Also, in an interesting wrinkle, the Rams’ hold the Falcons’ first round pick for next season, adding motivation for both teams to win.
Prediction: Rams 31, Falcons 17
Also Backing:
Puka Nacua over 109.5 receiving yards — Best Prop - $1.90 @ Dabble (1.5u)
Bijan Robinson over 125.5 rush + rec yards - $1.86 @ Bet365(1u)
Tyler Allgeier anytime touchdown - $3.05 @ NEDS (0.5u)
Rams -7.5
$1.88 (2 Units)
