Christmas Day in the States (Boxing Day in Australia) offers up another juicy slate this season with five matchups on back-to-back. Since the action starts as early as 4am AEDT, we’ve concentrated on the three later games for our preview, and we’ve brought you our best bets for those games below. Good luck to everyone following along and Merry Christmas!
NBA Betting Tips: Friday, December 26th 2025
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors (9:00 am AEDT)
The Mavericks arrive in San Francisco as outsiders against a Warriors side currently holding an impressive home record. While Dallas recently secured a vital win over Denver, they sit at 12 and 19 for the season. Golden State remains a tough assignment at the Chase Center, boasting the league’s highest three-point volume.
The battle centres on Golden State’s ball movement against a Dallas perimeter defence that has been surprisingly resilient. With Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg shouldering a heavy scoring load, the Warriors will look to exploit Dallas’s thin frontcourt. If the home side dictates a high tempo, they typically overwhelm visitors through sheer depth.
With Dallas seeing high-scoring totals in seven of their last ten, another shootout is likely. The Warriors’ offensive efficiency at home suggests they will push this game past the projected total. Expect plenty of scoring as both teams trade blows in this early tip-off.
Over 227.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers (12:00 pm AEDT)
The Lakers host a revitalised Rockets squad in a pivotal Western Conference clash. Houston sits at 17 and 10, leading the NBA in rebounding, while the Lakers are desperate to snap a two-game skid. The return of Luka Doncic is the major storyline, as LA has lacked creative spark during his absence.
Houston’s elite interior defence, led by Alperen Sengun, will test the Lakers' ability to score in the paint. The Rockets thrive when limiting second-chance points, whereas the Lakers rely on LeBron James to ignite their transition game. If the Rockets dominate the glass, they can successfully neutralise the Lakers' star power.
While the Lakers have the "event game" experience, Houston’s physical edge makes them a dangerous opponent. The Lakers have allowed high scores recently, and the Rockets have the personnel to capitalise on those defensive lapses. Look for the visitors to keep this tight or win outright.
Rockets -2.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets (2:30 pm AEDT)
The holiday slate ends in Denver with a heavyweight divisional meeting. The Nuggets are 21 and 8 and formidable at home, though they recently dropped a close one to Dallas. Minnesota travels with momentum, having won eight of their last ten, primarily behind a defence that ranks top five in the West.
This contest features a tactical duel between Nikola Jokic’s playmaking and Minnesota’s length. Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves' frontcourt have historically frustrated Denver’s rhythm, forcing the Nuggets into more individual play. If Anthony Edwards finds his range early, Minnesota possesses the defensive discipline to pull off a road upset.
Given the rivalry and defensive talent on display, this usually develops into a low-possession grind. Both teams prioritise stops in high-stakes games, often leading to scores staying well below the market line. Expect a physical, playoff-style battle where points are at a premium.
Under 239.5 Points
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
