The NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football slate features the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Washington Commanders at Arrowhead Stadium. With Patrick Mahomes in MVP form and the Commanders missing injured rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the market heavily favours Kansas City. We break down the odds, form, and best bets — including the Chiefs –11.5 and Isiah Pacheco rushing prop — for this primetime showdown.
Check out our NFL tips below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL Week 8 Commanders at Chiefs Betting Tips
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City – Tuesday 28th October, 11:15am (AEDT)
Last Week Recap
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs were at their dominant best in Week 7, thrashing the Raiders 31-0 in one of the season’s most lopsided performances. They out-gained Las Vegas 435 yards to 95, produced 30 first downs to the Raiders’ three, and controlled the ball for over 40 minutes.
Mahomes was clinical, completing 26-of-35 passes for 286 yards and three touchdowns before resting late. Rashee Rice returned from suspension with a pair of TDs on seven catches, and Travis Kelce chipped in three receptions for 54 yards. Defensively, Kansas City overwhelmed the Raiders, ranking top-five in both points allowed per game and EPA per play after the shutout.
Washington Commanders
Washington’s 44-22 loss to Dallas was costly in more ways than one. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels exited with a hamstring injury that rules him out for Monday night, leaving veteran Marcus Mariota to start. The Commanders’ defence surrendered 8.3 yards per pass attempt and over 470 total yards, while an undisciplined 118 penalty yards compounded the damage.
Mariota completed just 56 percent of his throws in relief, and without Daniels’ dual-threat element, Washington’s offense becomes far easier to defend. The road to Arrowhead could be long and loud for this short-handed roster.
Matchup Breakdown
The Market Moves
The look-ahead line had Kansas City –5.5, but the Daniels injury swung it out to –11.5, right in the dead zone between 10 and 13. Despite the adjustment, the gap in quarterback quality and overall talent suggests value remains with the favourite.
Under Andy Reid, Kansas City are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 primetime home games. Washington have covered only twice in their last eight as road underdogs.
Mahomes should dissect Washington’s 28th-ranked scoring defence, while Mariota faces a top-five unit allowing just 16 points per game. If the Chiefs reach 30 points — something they’ve done in five of six home games — they’re covering comfortably.
Total & Team-Total Insight
The total has drifted from 50.5 → 48, aligning with model projections. No firm edge on the overall number, but the Chiefs team total over 29.5 is appealing.
Kansas City rank top-five in offensive success rate, and Washington allow scores on nearly 46 percent of drives. If Mahomes consistently starts drives near midfield, the points will come in bunches.
Player Prop Focus
Pacheco has become Kansas City’s workhorse, logging at least 16 touches in five straight games and topping 50 rushing yards in each of the last two. Washington’s front has allowed 4.6 yards per carry and ranks bottom-five in missed tackles.
With the Chiefs expected to control game script, Pacheco should see volume in the second half as Reid leans on clock-draining runs. Anything near 15–18 carries clears this comfortably.
Supporting Angles
- Rashee Rice Anytime TD (+150): Commanders corners have surrendered nine receiving scores in five games. Rice’s red-zone usage spiked to 30 percent in Week 7.
- Travis Kelce Over 5.5 Receptions: Washington allow a 75 percent catch rate to tight ends, and Mahomes looks to Kelce as his primary blitz outlet.
- Chiefs First Half –6.5: Kansas City have covered this mark in five of their last six home starts.
Why the Chiefs Should Dominate
- Quarterback gulf: Mahomes leads the NFL in adjusted EPA; Mariota’s career mark ranks near the bottom among active QBs.
- Defensive form: Kansas City sit 3rd in DVOA, Washington 28th. The Chiefs have allowed only 16.1 points per game.
- Discipline & coaching: The Chiefs average 5.3 penalties per game; Washington nearly nine. Arrowhead noise compounds that.
- Red-zone efficiency: Kansas City convert 67 percent of trips into touchdowns; Washington just 43 percent.
Final Thoughts
Arrowhead under lights rarely disappoints — and this looks like another statement spot for Mahomes and Reid. Washington’s defence has leaked points all season, and without Jayden Daniels, their offense loses its identity.
Expect a business-like performance from the Chiefs: early strikes through the air, a steady dose of Pacheco on the ground, and the defence closing the door late.
Kansas City roll to a comfortable primetime win and move one step closer to reclaiming control of the AFC.
Prop Bet: Pacheco (over) 45.5 rushing yards - $1.90 @ Bet365 (1.5u)
Chiefs (-10.5)
$1.90 (2 Units)
