AFL Round 20’s Sunday slate is a double header kicking off with a traditional Victorian club clash at the MCG between Richmond and Collingwood. This will be a game stackers delight with the first placed Magpies heavy favourites over the 16th placed Tigers. Then in the late afternoon game St Kilda will host Melbourne at Marvel Stadium in what is a complete dead rubber for both teams, but a match that we can expect to see plenty of bruise free football and high fantasy scoring.
As always, this is all about the daily fantasy and this Sunday slate draws another massive $50,000 prize pool at Draftstars in their main contest. In addition, there are a variety of alternate contests:
AFL $5,000+ Sunday High Roller ($150 Entry)
AFL $3,000+ Sunday Mini ($2 Entry)
AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Round 20 Sunday
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Sunday: Where to Attack?
Let’s start with Richmond. Whenever you are sitting 16th there are going to plenty of holes to exploit from a fantasy scoring perspective. Firstly in the midfield the Tigers are giving up the fourth most points in the league over the last 10 games. From here we move to key forwards where Richmond is conceding the second most points in the league at over 7 points per game above league average. But the real juicy stuff against Richmond is the backs, they are giving up a ridiculous 16 points per game above league average to designated kickers (the most in the league), second most to general defenders, and one of the higher marks in the league for attacking half backs.
In the later game, St Kilda have surprisingly been one of the toughest teams in the league to score against in the midfield conceding over 5 points per game below league average, so look to avoid that position. They are giving up over 4 points per game above average to general forwards while other positions across the ground apart from ruck they are about average. Melbourne offer little clear targets as well, although they are getting beaten by opposition midfielders where they give up over 3 points per a game above league average, and you can also stack up across the back line positions against the Demons.
Game Script – Collingwood key forwards, midfielders and designated kicker
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Sunday: Our Value Fantasy Picks
Lachlan Sullivan ($7,190) looks to be a solid value play in games where the Magpies are solid favourites. He posted back to back 70+ point games in the last four weeks when Collingwood was matched up against West Coast and Carlton, which would make for a solid 10x return at this price point.
Daniel McStay ($9,280) is well positioned for the Magpies to take advantage of the fact that they are heavy favourites in this game (just under 50 points) and that Richmond have given up the second most points in the league over the last 10 games to key forwards. McStay has shown earlier this year that he has the upside to win you a major tournament posting a 124 point game. If you are looking for alternatives at this position, Brody Mihocek ($9,750) for a similar price offers a lower ceiling but more consistently will return a 10x on value.
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Sunday: Our Mid Price Fantasy Picks
Dan Houston ($10,960) returns from injury after a somewhat disappointing first season with the Magpies. But this week will be interesting to see how Collingwood lineup. Josh Daicos has showed out during his time in the midfield in recent weeks and now with Houston back in the lineup, there is a clear opportunity to shift Josh further up the ground. As noted above, the Tigers are giving up ridiculous scores to the designated kicker and I expect Houston to partially play this role this week.
AFL Fantasy Round 20 Sunday: Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Max Gawn ($16,460)… the Saints have been getting killed by opposition rucks this year to the tune of over 9 points per game above league average. This makes for a very solid bounce back opportunity for Gawn who has had 3 games under 100 points from his last four matches. Earlier in the year he posted 107 points against the Saints and I am expecting him to go much bigger this week.
Nick Daicos ($17,240) is a great place to start and end your Collingwood stacks. Coming off a 162 point performance last week he now has three games over 132 from his last four. Tigers typically don’t tag, however they could use Jack Ross on him like they did last week with Harley Reid, but I don’t see it slowing Daicos down in this game. There will be plenty of junk time and Nick doesn’t stop just because the game is over.
Here’s our Suggested Draftstars Lineup
Weather Report for Sunday 27th July
Melbourne – 14 degrees and showers
Marvel – Weather is always perfect on this ground
Could be plenty of rain around Melbourne on Saturday which might impact the game at the MCG. Given it is the first game of the slate you can monitor the weather closer to the first bounce and decide on its level of impact. If the rain has set in consider loading up on inside players and tacklers, or just switching the other game where conditions will be balmy under the roof.
AFL Betting Markets Round 20 Sunday
Richmond ($10.50) vs Collingwood ($1.05)
Points: 154.5
Line: Collingwood -45.5
St Kilda ($2.02) vs Melbourne ($1.82)
Points: 168.5
Line: Melbourne -2.5
