NFL week 1 concludes with a massive clash, as last year’s runner up the San Francisco 49ers aim to get their 2024/25 campaign off to a winning start, welcoming Aaron Rodgers and the Jets to the bay area. These two teams have Super Bowl aspirations this season, and we will get an early sign here of how both teams will fare.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
And if you haven’t already done so, be sure to check out our NFL Season Preview, with picks for Super Bowl, Divisional, and Award winners for the 2024/25 season!
NFL Week 1 Preview & Betting Tips
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium, Tuesday 10th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Season
As mentioned, the 49ers made it to the big dance last season, eventually succumbing to the Kansas City Chiefs 25-22 in Super Bowl LVIII. The 49ers were great all season, finishing as the #1 seed in the NFC with a 12-5 record. They were led by Christian McCaffrey, who won his first Offensive Player Of the Year award on the back of 1459 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground, whilst also hauling in 67 catches for 564 yards and 7 touchdowns through the air. With Brock Purdy again showing himself to be a legitimate starting quarterback, the 49ers offense was as explosive and dynamic as anyone. They did, however, struggle in the playoffs, sneaking past both the Packers and Lions at home, before losing in the Super Bowl. They should be better for the run, but questions remain about Kyle Shannahan when the rubber hits the road.
As for the Jets, their season was defined on the opening drive of their first game last season, with superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffering a ruptured Achilles on the drive, and his season was over. The Jets couldn’t get anything out of their backup quarterbacks and were only able to win 7 games because of their elite defensive unit. The only positive for the offense was running back Breece Hall, who after coming back from a season ending injury in his rookie campaign, ran for 1000 yards and five touchdowns, whilst also catching 76 passes for 591 yards and four touchdowns. With Aaron Rodgers, expect Breece Hall to push into the elite running back territory this season.
Injury Report
San Francisco 49ers
Yetur Gross-Matos / Drake Jackson (DE) – OUT
Dee Winters / Dre Greenlaw (LB) – OUT
Kalia Davis (DT) – OUT
Ricky Pearsall (WR) – OUT
Elijah Mitchell (RB) – OUT
Ambry Thomas (CB) – OUT
Jon Feliciano (OG) – OUT
Talanoa Hufanga (SAF) – Doubtful
Christian McCaffrey (RB) – Questionable
Aaron Banks (OG) – Questionable
New York Jets
Zaire Barnes (LB) – OUT
Wes Schweitzer (OG) – OUT
Kenny Yeboah (TE) – OUT
Leki Fotu (DT) – OUT
Jordan Travis (QB) – OUT
Haason Reddick (OLB) – OUT
Malik Taylor (WR) – OUT
Match Preview
This matchup has probably had the most line movement since open, with the early lines showing the 49ers as 6.5-point home favourites. With word Trent Williams was going to hold out, and Jets love coming into the market, the Jets came all the way in to just 3/3.5-point underdogs. With Trent Williams re-signing, 49ers money came back into market, to where the 49ers are now heading towards being 4.5-point favourites. The total has also moved, with the open sitting at 45.5, to where we now are at 43.5, going under the key number of 44.
These teams last met four years ago in week 2, with the 49ers spanking the Jets 31-13 at MetLife Stadium. I take zero from this result, with both teams sporting an all-new cast of characters.
The 49ers weren’t great in this spread range at home last season, covering only one of four games at home when they closed as 3.5-6.5-point favourites. The Jets didn’t play any games last season in this spread range, however, were 2-4 as road underdogs last season.
I am not as high on the 49ers this season, with their offensive line looking below average. If they cannot get improvement from their non-Trent Williams offensive linemen, Brock Purdy could be in for a rough season. Luckily for the 49ers, the Jets are without Haason Reddick on the edge, meaning they won’t have to worry as much about pass blocking in this game. I make the 49ers a 5.5-point favourite, so I don’t see a great deal of value here.
So, it’s the total where I look for my best bet for Monday Night Football, and whilst this total is sitting below the key of 44, I’m on the over. I’m not convinced, and as such it will be a small outlay, but I think the over is the bet for this game. Both offenses should get what they want in the run game, and both teams should be efficient enough to take advantage of the yards made in the run game.
Looking at prop bets, I love Breece Hall to be heavily involved in this game and will take him to go over in his rushing and receiving prop. I believe he could easily rush for 100 yards, so to get over 95.5 combined rushing and receiving yards, seems an easy play here against a poor 49ers run defence.
Prop Bet: Breece Hall (Over) 95.5 rushing and receiving yards - $1.95 at Bet365 (1u)
Over 43.5 points
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
