The NFC East takes centre stage on Thursday Night Football, as the 1-2 Cowboys head to New Jersey to take on the 1-2 Giants. It’s the second straight Thursday Night Football game at MetLife Stadium, after the Jets made easy work of the Patriots last week, and the Giants will be desperate to have a similar result against a team that has had their measure of late. This is a pivotal early season matchup for both teams and should be entertaining. Check out our full preview and best bets below!
NFL Week 4 Preview & Betting Tips
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
MetLife Stadium, Friday 27th September, 10:15am (AEST)
Last Week
The Giants got off the snide in week 3, spanking the Browns in Cleveland 21-15. Whilst the final scoreline doesn’t scream “spanking”, the Giants were by far the better team, with an early Giants fumble followed by a quick Browns TD the only time in the game the Browns looked on top. The Browns only managed 217 total yards at 3.4 yards per play and considering 100 of those total yards came in the final quarter, you get a great idea of just how poor this Browns offense was until the Giants defence went into prevent coverage. For the Giants, Malik Nabers appears a home run of a draft pick, looking like a bona-fide WR1 after just three starts in the NFL, hauling in 8 catches for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns. Absolute beast.
Speaking of flattering scorelines last week, the Cowboys were totally outplayed by the Ravens for three quarters, before scoring 19 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to go down by just three points, 28-25. The Cowboys had 201 of their 412 total yards in the final quarter, whilst also recovering an onside kick (the first with the new kick-off rules), but it was once again a poor display overall from the Cowboys, who cannot get the run game going, and whose defence has taken a marked step back from last season. The Cowboys are in deep trouble, can they turn it around against a team they’ve had the wood on lately?
Injury Report
New York Giants
Elijah Riley (DB) – OUT
Matthew Adams (OLB) – OUT
Austin Schlottman (OG) – OUT
Gunner Olszewski (WR) – OUT
Graham Gano (K) – OUT
Dyontae Johnson (LB) – OUT
Andru Phillips (DB) – Questionable
Adoree Jackson / Nick McCloud (CB) – Questionable
Micah McFadden (LB) – Questionable
Darius Slayton (WR) – Questionable
Dexter Lawrence (DT) – Questionable
Dallas Cowboys
Samuel Williams (DE) – OUT
Earl Bostick Jr. / Nathan Thomas (OT) – OUT
DaRon Bland (CB) – OUT
Jordan Phillips (DT) – OUT
Chuma Edoga (OG) – OUT
Markquese Bell (SAF) – Questionable
Caelen Carson (DB) – Questionable
DeMarcus Lawrence (DE) – Questionable
Match Preview
The Cowboys have won the past six matchups between these NFC East rivals, with the results last season being particularly one sided. In week 1, the Cowboys headed to MetLife as 3.5-point road favourites, only to come away as commanding 40-0 winners. It was utter domination from the Cowboys defence, as they stole two interceptions, whilst forcing a whopping five fumbles (1 recovered). The Cowboys offense consistently started with quality field position, and this game was over at halftime.
The rematch happened in week 10 at the AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys entered the game as massive 17.5-point home favourites. Despite the huge number, the Cowboys covering the spread was never in doubt, as they ran out 49-17 winners in another game that was over at halftime. This time it was the offense that dominated, with Dak Prescott throwing for over 400 yards and four touchdowns.
Fast forward to week 4 of this season, and the market has definitely cooled on the Cowboys, with the number moving from -7 on the lookahead, to -5.5 at re-open. Money continued coming in early on the Giants, to where Cowboys -4 showed at some books. This was the friction point, as money has now come in on the Cowboys, to where they are now back out to 5.5-point favourites. I have the Cowboys as 5.5-point favourites, so would have loved to get on the -4, but missed out. This is the chance for the Cowboys to get their season back on track, and you’ve got to think if they can’t get the job done against a team they’ve destroyed the last three seasons, they could be done.
As for the total, it was 43.5 on the lookahead, before bumping up to 44 on re-open. Steady overs money has come into the market, to where we now sit at 45.5. I fully agree with this move, with the Cowboys defence close to the worst in the league through three weeks. The Giants showed last week they can score 21 points against a good defence (Browns) on the road, so I like them to score in the 17-21 point range again this week at home in prime time. The Cowboys, meanwhile, should be able to score on this Giants secondary, with the main concern being can their offensive line hold up against a decent Giants pass rush. I’d lean over here but prefer the side.
Looking at props, I’ll take a crack at a CeeDee Lamb bounce back here. He has averaged 8 targets per game, and whilst the obvious concern is a poor game state if the Cowboys shoot out to an early lead, I think this is a close game through the first half at least. Lamb should be targeted heavily here, and I expect him to pump out 90+ yards this week.
Prop Bet: CeeDee Lamb (over) 81.5 receiving yards - $1.91 at Bet365 (1u)
Cowboys -5.5
$1.93 (1.5 Units)
