It’s a Monday Night Football game with little to know playoff implications, and despite this we should be in for an entertaining affair, with two teams who aren’t terribly concerned with playing defence. The Bengals head to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, with both teams all but out of playoff contention, with the loser essentially guaranteed to miss, and the winner the slightest of chances. Not much on the line here, and that should lend itself to plenty of points!
NFL Week 14 Preview & Betting Tips
Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals
AT&T Stadium, Tuesday 10th November, 12:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Cowboys won their second straight last week on Thanksgiving, as they got the better of their NFC East rivals, the New York Giants. After leading 27-10 at the end of the third quarter, the Cowboys allowed some garbage time points to the Giants, eventually winning 27-20 in a game that was never in doubt. Rico Dowdle had a breakthrough game on the ground, rushing for 112 yards and a touchdown, whilst Cooper Rush spread the ball around, targeting 9 different receivers for the Cowboys in the win. The Cowboys’ defence was at it’s destructive best, sacking Giants’ quarterback Drew Lock 7 times and creating two turnovers, in one of their better efforts for the season.
The Bengals lost their third straight last week, and with it basically any chance they had at making the post season, as they went down 44-38 to the Steelers. The Bengals defence continues to be the Achillis heel for this team, giving up over 500 yards of offense to Russell Wilson and the Steelers. Joe Burrow once again did all he could, throwing for 309 yards and 3 touchdowns, however, was intercepted once and fumbled twice. Burrow had three receivers with over 50 yards, as Ja’Marr Chase (86), Tee Higgins (69), and Mike Gesicki (53) all having productive days.
Match Preview
The Cowboys have won the past five matchups between these teams, the last of which came in week 2 of the 2022 NFL regular season. Interestingly, it was once again Cooper Rush starting under center for the Cowboys, as they got the better of Joe Burrow and the Bengals 20-17 at AT&T Stadium. These teams are both in very different situations to this time two and a half years ago, but you’ve still got to give the Cowboys and Cooper Rush some credit for winning this game.
Moving forward to this week, and the Bengals opened as 6-point favourites on the look ahead line, before re-opening at the same number after the week 13 results were in. Early money came in for the Cowboys, which knocked this off 6 and down to 5.5, where it has stayed for the rest of the week. I make the Bengals a 6-point favourite, and so would lean towards the Bengals covering the spread here, however I can’t trust the Bengals defence in this spot.
So, it’s the total where I will look to make a bet this week. The total opened 45.5 on the look ahead, before re-opening 48.5. It continued getting bet up early in the week, to where 50.5 was showing at most sportsbooks. Under money has come in later in the week, and the total now sits at 49.5. I’ll gladly accept the reduced total and bet the over in this game. This Bengals team is a flat-out overs team, with one of the best offenses, and worst defences, in the league. The Cowboys have shown enough on offense the past two weeks to make me believe they can get to 24 points, which should have this total sail over. The Bengals have gone over the total in their past 5 games, and 9 of 12 this season, whilst the Cowboys have gone over in their past 3 games since Rush took over. If you have a Betfair account, look to sell down to over 48.5, which is currently at $1.87. 49 is a key total in the NFL and capturing that 0.5 point could be critical.
There’s plenty of prop bets worth looking at in a game expected to feature points, but I’ll take a more obscure name in this one and bet the Andrei Iosivas overs. It currently sits at just 19.5 yards, which is the second lowest yardage total he has been lined at this season. This week, Iosivas should eat against a Cowboys defence that has struggled to defend slot receivers. Iosivas has consistently seen 3-4 targets per game over the past two months, and he only needs to latch on to one, maybe two, to go over his total here.
Prop Bet
Andrei Iosivas (over) 19.5 receiving yards - $1.90 at Bet365 (1u)
Over 49.5 points
$1.93 (1.5 Units)
