Christmas Day Football in America equates to Boxing Day Football in Australia, and what better way to spend your Boxing Day morning than watching three great games of gridiron! We kick things off with an AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and Raiders, followed by an NFC matchup between the Giants and Eagles. The day culminates in what could be a Super Bowl preview, when the 49ers play host to the Ravens. What a day!
Below, we will dissect the matchups, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our Best Bets. Make sure you are following BeforeYouBet, as we will have dedicated Match Previews for all Prime-Time games this season, as well as a preview of the main slate on Monday’s. All for free!
NFL 2023-24: Boxing Day Preview & Betting Tips
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
GEHA Field, Tuesday 26th December, 5:00am (AEDT)
The Raiders and Chiefs last met just five weeks ago in week 12 in Las Vegas. The Raiders shot out to a 14-0 lead, before the Chiefs turned it around, running out 31-17 winners. The Chiefs closed 9-point favourites on the road, covering the number in the end, whilst the total closed 43.
Five weeks later, and with home field swapped, the Chiefs opened 10.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening 10-point favourites. The number still sits at 10, which is interesting, and shows how much the market has cooled on the Chiefs. I make the Chiefs a 10.5-point favourite, and with far more to play for than the Raiders, I like the Chiefs to cover this number.
The total was 42 on the lookahead, before re-opening at 43. This has dipped heavily to 41, and if it gets any lower, I’ll play the over this week. Whilst both teams have struggled this season on offense, and defended above what was expected before the season started, a total this low with Patrick Mahomes involved screams over. But for now, just the side play.
Kansas City Chiefs -10
$1.94 (1.5 Units)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Tuesday 26th December, 8:30am (AEDT)
These NFC East rivals met three times last season, with the Eagles winning both home and away games in the regular season, before destroying the Giants in the Divisional round of the playoffs, 38-7. The Giants haven’t won at the Linc since 2013, with the Eagles holding a tremendous home field advantage, especially in prime-time games. This is a get right spot for the Eagles, and they should pound the Giants on Christmas day.
The number has moved quite a bit, with the Eagles sitting as 10.5-point favourites on the lookahead, and at re-open, before consistent Eagles’ money has flooded the market all week, to where the home team currently sits as 13.5-point favourites. I make the Eagles a 13.5-point favourite in this matchup, however I am confident they cove this number.
The total re-opened at the same number as the lookahead, 43.5, with a small amount of under money coming in, pushing this total down to 43. I’m reasonably confident the Eagles can do their part, but I’m a little concerned about Tommy DeVito and this Giants offense, which might struggle against a fired-up Eagles front. With the Eagles’ total sitting above the 27/28 region, I’ll leave their team total alone, and just focus on them covering the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles -13
$1.95 (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers
Levi’s Stadium, Tuesday 26th December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
These teams haven’t met since 2019, with the Ravens winning 20-17 at home. Lamar Jackson shredded the 49ers on the ground, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown. I won’t take much from this result, with the 49ers, in particular, looking much different to this team.
The 49ers were 4.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening as 5-point favourites. They have since been bet out to 6-point favourites, which is significant given that these two teams are favoured to meet in the Super Bowl in just over a month. It shows how much better the market view the 49ers to any other team in the NFL right now, and for mine, it’s justified. I make the 49ers a 5-point favourite, so the extra point is significant here, with a slight lean on the Ravens to cover.
As for the total, it has been bet up slightly, from 45.5 at open to 46.5 currently. This is crucially still below the key number of 47, which makes an over interesting here. Both teams are offensive juggernauts, with the 49ers averaging 30.4 points per game (3rd), and the Ravens averaging 27.4 points per game (4th). However, both teams rank 1st in their respective conference for points conceded per game. I get the sense both teams will want this game, with #1 seeds in their respective conferences on the line, and possibly huge psychological advantages if these two were to meet in the Super Bowl. They will leave it all on the field, and I don’t see either coach playing this conservatively. Give me the over, in what should be an absolute cracker of a game on Boxing Day!
Total points Over 46.5
$1.95 (1.5 Units)
