What a time to be alive! After a massive 11-game slate for us Aussies fans on Christmas day, we then get a 3-game back-to-back-to-back slate for Boxing Day! Up first, the surging Green Bay Packers (6-8) head to Florida to take on the Dolphins (8-6), in what will be a pivotal result for both teams. Next up, the Broncos (4-10) head to LA to take on the Rams (4-10), in a result that means more to the Seahawks and Lions, as they hold the first-round draft pick of the Broncos and Rams, respectively. Finally, the Buccaneers (6-8) take on the Cardinals (4-10), in what appears to be a very flat ending to the slate. I can only imagine most Americans will have stopped paying attention by now, being late on Christmas night.
Our Thursday Night best bet of the Jaguars ML was a no sweat winner, with our record for primetime games now moving to 28-23-1 (+5.12u).
We will have a bet on each matchup, and a little 3-team, 7-point teaser, just for a bit of fun.
NFL 2022-23: Week 16 Monday Preview & Betting Tips
Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Monday 5:00am AEDT
Match Preview
This is clearly the match of the day, it’s just unfortunate that it’s up first. At least it gives us a reason to get up at 5:00am though, right? The Dolphins have been tremendous this season at home, going 5-1, with victories over the Bills, Patriots, Steelers, Browns, and the Texans. Now, after three tough games on the road, they head home to take on the Green Bay Packers.
Speaking of the Packers, a month ago they appeared destined to miss the playoffs, however after winning 3 of their last 5, including their last 2 in a row, the Packers now have an outside shot at the playoffs. They are as healthy as they have been all season, particularly on offense, and despite only scoring 24 points against the Rams last week, looked much better. Their defence also looked improved; however, I take nothing from this as it was against the Rams, who are impotent on offense.
Whilst it’s hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers in such a big spot, I really like the Dolphins to win and cover. The Packers defence will struggle to hold the Dolphins under 30, and I see the Dolphins winning by 6+. Money has come in on the Packers, so leaving this as long as possible to bet is probably the way to go, and hopefully we can get a Dolphins -3.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
$1.93 (1.5 Units)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Monday 8:30am AEDT
Match Preview
As mentioned in the blurb at the top of the article, this game is more interesting for Seahawks and Lions fans, than fans of the teams playing. That is because their teams hold the rights to the first-round picks for the Broncos (Seahawks) and Rams (Lions), with both picks currently projected to be top 5 in the draft. So tanking is out of the questions, however it might not matter.
Both these teams came in as genuine playoff contenders with Super Bowl aspirations; however, it didn’t take long to reconsider these goals, and things have gotten worse throughout the season. I currently have the Rams rated as the second worst team in the NFL, with the Broncos only slightly better (26th). This is going to be a low scoring, potentially horrific game of football.
The Broncos concede the 3rd least points per game (18.1) in the NFL, whilst the Rams score the second least points per game (16.4). With the Rams’ team total currently sitting around 16.5/17, I’ve got to take the under. If you can find a 17 take it, but I’ll take the 16.5 and hope the Rams can only manage the one touchdown.
LA Rams (team total) under 16.5
$2.04 (1.5 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
University of Phoenix Stadium, Monday 12:20pm AEDT
Match Preview
The number in this one has moved quite a lot, and that is mainly down to the change in quarterback for the Cardinals. After Kyler Murray was placed on IR, Colt McCoy took over as the QB1 for the Cardinals. With McCoy as quarterback, the lookahead for this clash was the Bucs -3. This re-opened at -3.5 after last weekend’s games, however with news of McCoy being ruled out (concussion) and Trace McSorley slated to start, this number has moved all the way to Bucs -7.
It's almost impossible to make a number for the Cardinals with McSorley starting, however I have them now rated as the worst team in the league. I got Bucs -3.5 early and am happy with that, but I can’t recommend laying the 7.
As a result, I’ll bet on the Bucs keeping the Cardinals to under 16.5 points. McSorley was horrendous last week, whilst the Bucs defence looked a lot better than it has in recent weeks. They were let down by 4 Tom Brady turnovers in the 2nd half, giving up only 3.8 yards per play and only 2.5 yards per rush to the Bengals, despite conceding 34 points.
Arizona Cardinals (team total) under 16.5
$1.85 (2 Units)
Multi Bet (Teaser Card at Bet365 – 7pt Teaser)
Dolphins (+3) / Buccaneers (-0.5) / Under 43.5 (LAR/DEN) - $2.20 (1u)
