An odd, but awesome part of the regular season in the NFL, with games on Sunday (Australian time) this week AND next week, and with the byes over, all 32 teams are in action. This week, we get three games in this slate, starting with the Minnesota Vikings trying to get back on track as they host the fading Indianapolis Colts, followed by two massive Divisional matchups. In the sandwich game, the Ravens will head to Cleveland to take on the Browns, with the Ravens once again without their star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Then, in the main event, the sputtering Dolphins head to Buffalo to take on the Bills, in a game that will have massive implications for both in the playoff race.
NFL 2022-23: Week 15 Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Sunday 5:00am AEDT
The number for this game has shifted quite heavily towards the Colts, and given the Colts are coming off the bye, this can only mean a downgrade on the Vikings. I believe this is a little bit harsh to be honest, given the Vikings lost a matchup against a red-hot Lions team in Detroit last week, in a game that was closer than the final score would have you believe. Yes, the Lions won 34-23 and covered the spread, however a fumble by the Vikings cost them dearly. The fumble happened when the Vikings trailed 14-7 midway through the 2nd quarter. The Vikings put together a 13 play, 78-yard drive, before running back Dalvin Cook fumbled on the Lions’ 3-yard line. A touchdown here could have led to a vastly different outcome.
The Colts’ season appears to be circling the drain, with 3-straight losses since their 25-20 victory over the Raiders, in Interim Head Coach Jeff Saturday’s debut. That win doesn’t hold much weight, and after being trucked in the 4th quarter against the Cowboys 2 weeks ago, the players may have finally put the cue in the rack.
I make this number close to a touchdown, so I’m either way high on the Vikings, or low on the Colts, but I think the Vikings get it done here. The number has moved to far, and now getting the key number of 4, I’ll take the Vikings.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
$1.95 (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
FirstEnergy Stadium, Saturday 8:30am AEDT
The lookahead here was Browns -3, after news of the Lamar Jackson injury surfaced. This line was set at a time when there was still a possibility that Lamar may suit up for this game. Now, with Lamar Jackson confirmed out, and his backup Tyler Huntley a concussion risk, the number has dropped to Browns -2.5. I get that Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked great, but I cannot understand this dropping off the 3.
The weather is going to be cold, with a chance at some rain and wind, so look for both teams to run the football. Looking at DVOA, this favours the Ravens, as their rush defence is elite, however Nick Chubb managed a solid performance in the earlier game this season between the Ravens and Browns.
I struggle to trust the Browns, but this is more a fade of the Ravens without Lamar. The Browns’ offense has far more upside, and I’ll take them to win by a field goal or more.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
$1.93 (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
New Era Field, Saturday 12:15pm AEDT
I hate taking totals, but I’m taking one here. There is a heavy snow fall event heading to the Buffalo area this weekend, and whilst it appears as though the worst of it will be over by kick-off for this clash, the weather still won’t be much fun to play in on Sunday Night.
Most of the total plays I’ve made later in the season have been Divisional matchups where both teams need the win, and I see both teams coming into this one fully charged for this matchup. Divisional matchups in prime time this season have been tremendous looks for unders bettors, and I’ll jump on the wagon here. I believe even in good conditions, this could go under, as a Bills masterclass like how they played the Patriots two weeks ago would be a likely outcome.
With the weather an added element, I love the under here, where I see a solid Bills start leading to them churning out rush yards and running out the clock. Bills 27-13.
Under 44.5 points
$1.95 (2 Units)
