Welcome to our first full Monday slate of the 2022-23 NFL season. It’s going to be a wild 5-month, 285-game experience. The timezones are a real pain for us Aussies, but it’s generally worth the whacky sleep schedule to take in most of the games via NFL RedZone on a Monday morning. Last season I wrote this article focused on line betting for every game, but this year I’ll pick my favourite bet of any type for each game and keep track as if each bet is for $10. We’ve already seen one big matchup, with the Bills taking down the reigning champs in the Rams. There are 15 more to come across Monday and Tuesday morning, so lets take a look at each of them individually. The Prime Time games will get their own sections at the top of the article and then we'll have smaller previews and NFL tips for the other games of the slate.
Let's get stuck into our NFL Week 1 Betting tips for this Monday slate!
NFL Week 1 Betting Tips - Monday September 12th 2022
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Monday 10:20am AEST
The Buccs have had an interesting off-season, with Tom Brady retiring for less than 2 months before backflipping, and Rob Gronkowski actually retiring (but likely to backflip later in the season). Chris Godwin is working back from an ACL, Antonio Brown is gone, and Julio Jones has arrived in his place as the colourful former superstar. Lenny Fournette has had his weight fluctuations discussed on a daily basis, and generally we’ve worried about everything other than their quality football. That should change now, with the team arriving at Week 1 in solid shape and unlikely to be too far from their best stuff with Brady under centre.
The Cowboys have had some issues of their own. Amari Cooper headed off to Cleveland on a nice big contract, and Michael Gallup is mirroring Godwins ACL journey. Ezekiel Elliot is another veteran running back with question marks over his conditioning and motivation, and Dak Prescott needs to prove that he has what it takes to drag this much hyped team towards the pointy end of the league. That became much harder when gun offensive lineman Tyron Smith copped a serious hamstring injury, leaving the teams protection decidedly more shaky. It also remains to be seen if the defensive unit can repeat last season much improved standard of play. Both teams have questions to answer, but I feel much better about the Buccs, mostly because they continue to be quarterbacked by the GOAT in Brady. With a pretty tight spread based on the Cowboys being the home team, I’ll take the visitors to win by more than a field goal.
Other Games
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The washed up Big Ben retired, with the Steelers now led by infamous QB Mitch Trubisky. The other offensive weapons are pretty good, but the fundamentals of this time are shaky at best. Meanwhile the Bengals have essentially run back last years Super Bowl team, while significantly bolstering the offensive line to protect Joe Burrow. I expect the favourites to put on a show, so I’m going Bengals 13+ at $3.00 at TAB.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
A very interesting matchup. Jalen Hurts has a new toy in AJ Brown, and a rock solid offensive line to give him time to show what he’s got. The Lions are an improving team, but far from the finished product. It could be a close game, I’ll take the Eagles 1-13 at $2.40 at Ladbrokes.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
The Colts are the same team, but with Matt Ryan replacing Carson Wentz. That should be a QB upgrade despite Ryans advanced age. The Texans are probably not as bad as advertised, with Davis Mills showing some promise at QB, a middling offensive line, and a promising young RB in Dameon Pierce. My strongest lean for this one is that Parris Campbell is ready to break out for the Colts, so I’m taking him Parris Campbell for 50+ receiving yards at $3.50 at Bet365.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
The Saints haven’t changed all that much from last year, but I think they’ll be much better. Jameis Winston has the QB job locked down, Michael Thomas is healthy again (hopefully), Chris Olave was drafted to complement him in the receiving game, and the defence and offensive line continue to look good. Meanwhile the Falcons are relying on failed #2 overall pick Marcus Mariota at QB. Basically the only positives on the team are TE Kyle Pitts and new WR Drake London who should both see lots of work with limited target competition. I’ll take the Saints 14+ at $3.60 at TAB.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
The Ravens had a blip last year, bitten hard by the injury bug and missing the playoffs. They look better coming into 2022, despite losing Marquise Brown. Importantly QB Lamar Jackson is ready to go. The Jets added more promising young offensive players, but still have big question marks at QB, where Zach Wilson is injured and Joe Flacco is washed up. With J.K. Dobbins unlikely to play, I’ll take Mike Davis to score a TD at $3.00 at TAB.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
The news out of New England is not promising. The offence is in a messy transition after Josh McDaniels left to coach the Raiders, and no other part of the team has improved meaningfully. It’s looking rosier at the Dolphins where key additions have been made in Tyreek Hill, Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and coach Mike McDaniels. It remains to be seen how much that helps Tua Tagovailoa get comfortable at the NFL level, but all the pieces are there. Dolphins -3.5 at $1.90 at Ladbrokes feels like a solid bet.
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Ah, the Browns. It’s never boring there. The team and Baker Mayfield mutually gave up on each other, before signing Deshaun Watson who will miss half the season. Jacob Brissett as QB is probably not what Amari Cooper was hoping for when he signed. Mayfield ended up at the Panthers where he represents a slight QB upgrade, and Christian McCaffery’s health is perhaps the most crucial ingredient for a better season. I like the David Njoku breakout narrative after signing a big contract, so I’ll take a David Njoku TD at $4.25 at TAB.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
It’s Trey Lance time in San Francisco, and he’ll have all the support he could ask for from a well rounded team and good coaching staff. George Kittle is under another injury cloud in the only real issue for the team (as long as Lance can play!). Meanwhile the Bears gutted their organisation, with a whole new front office and coaching staff. On the field they have a bad offensive line & defensive group, very few offensive weapons, and a promising QB in Justin Fields who will struggle to overcome all these disadvantages. It’s a horrible situation and I have to take 49ers 14+ at $3.35 at TAB.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
The Jaguars are another team that changed course on it’s coaching setup, but at least they added some offensive support & got Travis Etienne back from injury to have a second crack at a rookie season. They’re still bad, but Doug Pedersen should be able to provide a better platform for Trevor Lawrence to lead this team in a positive direction. The Commanders got a slight QB upgrade with Carson Wentz, but haven’t made any other meaningful upgrades for a middling, even somewhat boring team without much ceiling. I’ll take my first shot at an upset with Jaguars 1-13 at $2.60 at TAB.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
The Raiders get Davante Adams, which is enough to raise expectations a little this season. Their fundamentals are still a little shaky, but Derek Carr and new coach Josh McDaniels might be able to produce enough offensive upside to make this a much more dangerous team. Meanwhile the Chargers continue their steady ascension since drafting Justin Herbert, by adding some key pieces in defence and on the offensive line. This is a potentially exciting game, but I actually like the Chargers defence to wreak havoc and I’ll take Chargers Defence TD at $7.50.
New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
The Giants got Brian Daboll as their coach, which should be good. Saquon Barkley is seemingly healthy again, and Daniel Jones should benefit from a better scheme. The receiving weapons, offensive line and defence are all questionable, so I doubt the team is any better than average right away. The Titans replaced AJ Brown with rookie Treylon Burks, and seem to be headed in the wrong direction in almost every area of the field. They’ll still be a gritty team, but I don’t love their prospects. I think there’s enough uncertainty to take another shot at an upset, with Giants 1-13 at $3.40 at TAB.
Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
The Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill and some other fringe receivers, and replaced them with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, rookie Skyy Moore, and a potential Mecole Hardman breakout. The offensive line is now really good after being major issue, and RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire sounds like he should be at least a little better, if still not worthy of his high draft pick. The Cardinals gave Kyler Murray a big contract, and brought in Marquise Brown to replace Christian Kirk. DeAndre Hopkins suspension is an issue, with the team not really looking any better than last year. It’s an exciting game, but I think the Chiefs can blow them away with Mahomes having a point to prove this season. Chiefs 14+ at $3.40 at TAB.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
The Packers did the opposite of what we’ve wanted for years, giving Aaron Rodgers LESS weapons by losing Davante Adams and replacing him with basically nothing. They now have essentially half-a-dozen nondescript receivers to battle for Rodgers attention. I’m sure he’l still make it work! The Vikings didn’t change personnel a great deal, but got a new coaching staff under Kevin O’Connell (from the Rams), who should play a more modern game style. I’ve got no idea what eo expect, so I’ll take a shot at Romeo Doubs as Rodgers new plaything, with Romeo Doubs TD at $4.75 at TAB.
