Week 11 of the NFL season kicks off at the frozen tundra, Lambeau Field, with the resurgent Green Bay Packers (4-6) hosting the surprising Tennessee Titans (6-3), in a match up with far more significance than we thought a week ago. With the Packers huge overtime win over the Cowboys last week, they are now back in contention for a playoff spot, however a home loss here could really hurt. The Titans are just going about their business, however with the victory to the Indianapolis Colts last week, they do need to have one eye looking over their shoulder and can’t afford to drop too many games. The weather is expected to be freezing, and the snow has started falling, real football weather, and I’m here for it.
Monday Night Football didn’t treat us well at all, with the Eagles again struggling early. This turned into a full game struggle, as the Eagles lost their first game of the season at home to the Commanders, 32-21. Our primetime bets now sit at 16-14-1 (+4.76u) for the season, and we’ve been in a real up and down pattern of late.
Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers Preview & Betting Tips
Lambeau Field, Friday 12:15pm AEDT
Last Week
The Titans welcomed back Ryan Tannehill late in the week, and it paid off, with the Titans quarterback leading the team with 255 yards and 2 touchdowns, in a 17-10 home win over the Broncos. It was a rare off day for Derrick Henry, with the King only managing 53 yards on the ground from 19 runs, only 2.8 yards per carry. The Titans were helped out with another horrendous offensive performance from the Broncos, who managed only 313 total yards, despite having well over half of the possession time with the ball. The Titans continue to find ways to win, winning 6 of their last 7, with their only loss being a 3-point loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead.
The Packers finally snapped their 5-game losing streak, with a crazy overtime victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers were down 28-14 heading into the final quarter, however some Aaron Rodgers magic and the emergence of a new WR1 in Green Bay proved the difference, with rookie wide receiver Christian Watson going for 107 yards and 3 touchdowns, in a breakout game for the North Dakota State product. The Packers ran the ball effectively against the Cowboys and will look to do the same again this week against the Titans.
Injury Report
Tennessee Titans
Caleb Farley (CB) – OUT
Da’Shawn Hand (DE) – OUT
Taylor Lewan (OT) – OUT
Harold Landry / Ola Adeniyi (OLB) – OUT
Josh Thompson (DB) – OUT
Zach Cunningham (ILB) – OUT
Amani Hooker (SS) – QUESTIONABLE
Roger McCreary (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Jeffery Simmons (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Bud Dupree (OLB) – QUESTIONABLE
Ben Jones (C) – QUESTIONABLE
Randy Bullock (K) – QUESTIONABLE
Green Bay Packers
Eric Stokes (CB) – OUT
Randall Cobb / Romeo Doubs (WR) – OUT
Rashan Gary (OLB) – OUT
Caleb Jones (OT) – OUT
Jake Hanson (OG) – OUT
Rasul Douglas (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
David Bakhtiari / Elgton Jenkins (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
De’Vondre Campbell / Krys Barnes (LB) – QUESTIONABLE
Allen Lazard (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
Hasn’t this number shifted? After the Packers managed to get by the Cowboys in overtime in week 10, bettors have come in droves to support them this week on Thursday Night Football. The lookahead for this one had the Packers as 1-point favourites, re-opening at Packers -2.5, and has now been bet out to 3, shaded towards 3.5.
Whilst the Packers did look a lot better last week against the Cowboys, it was on the ground where they won the battle. Aaron Jones tore through the Cowboys, running for 138 yards and a touchdown, whilst being supported by A.J. Dillon, who ran for 65 yards. This week, they get a Titans defence which is currently rated as the number 1 rushing defence, per DVOA.
On the flip side, the Packers are currently the 3rd worst rushing defence in the NFL, per DVOA, and this week they get to contend with Derrick Henry. Whilst Henry did have a slow game last week, his lack of touches bodes well for this game.
I hate the Titans injury report, it is brutal, however if Jeffery Simmons and a couple of other key guys can play, I really like the Titans in this spot.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
$1.91 (2 Units)
