Two more teams in primetime that are very much on the outside looking in for the playoffs, with the New England Patriots (6-6) heading to Arizona to take on the Cardinals (4-8). Whilst the Cardinals are all but out of the playoff picture, unless they run the table, the Patriots are still clinging on for dear life, however a loss here will almost certainly end their season. With both teams suffering from several key injuries, handicapping this one has proven difficult.
We were very unlucky on Thursday Night Football, with the Raiders blowing a late lead. Our record drops to 21-20-1 (+3.28u) for the season in primetime.
New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals Preview & Betting Tips
University of Phoenix Stadium, Tuesday 12:15pm AEDT
Last Week
The Patriots were totally outplayed by the Patriots last week, in a result that shows exactly how far behind this Patriots line-up is to the elite in the NFL. The Bills were able to do whatever they wanted offensively, managing to hold possession for a whopping 38 minutes, compared to the Patriots’ 22. The Bills didn’t need to get out of second gear, running the ball 37 times and cruising during the second half. Mac Jones threw the ball 36 times for only 195 yards, in a stinging indictment on how ineffective this Patriots offense can be against a good defence.
The Cardinals are coming off the bye last week, and in their last game in week 12, they lost a nail biter to the Chargers at home.
Injury Report
New England Patriots
Isaiah Wynn (OT) – OUT
Jalen Mills / Joejuan Williams (CB) – OUT
Jakobi Meyers (WR) – OUT
Christian Barmore (DT) – OUT
Trent Brown / Yodny Cajuste (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
Damien Harris (RB) – DOUBTFUL
Arizona Cardinals
Rondale Moore (WR) – OUT
Byron Murphy (CB) – OUT
Zach Ertz (TE) – OUT
D.J. Humphries (OT) – OUT
Rodney Hudson (C) – OUT
Justin Pugh / Rashaad Coward / Will Hernandez (OG) – OUT
Antwaun Woods (DT) – OUT
Zach Allen / Jonathan Ledbetter (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
The line for this matchup has barely moved all week, with the Patriots maintaining slight favouritism in the market, with the line yo-yoing between 1 and 2. I make the Patriots a 2-point favourite, giving the Cardinals the full 2 points for home field advantage, but if you dig into the Cardinals statistics at home, I don’t think they deserve that. Given this, my final number is closer to 3 on the Patriots, however I don’t want to lose out on another 1-point loss here for the Cardinals, so I’ll just take the Patriots on the money line.
Any way you slice it, the Patriots have the upper hand in terms of DVOA between these two teams. Both teams are well below average on offense, whilst the Patriots are above average defensively against the run, and the pass. I do like the under in this matchup, with the biggest concern being that both teams might be in YOLO mode now, lending itself to a game state that pushes the game over the total. But I still think there’s enough meat on the bone for the Patriots to come into this one with a solid gameplan, one that will need to shut down Kyler Murray’s legs. The Patriots will also need to get in the backfield defensively, with the Cardinals missing several starting offensive linemen.
Small stakes on both bets as I don’t trust either of these teams, but two bets for this one.
Alternate Bet: Under 43.5 - $1.92 @ Betfair (1u)
New England Patriots H2H
$1.86 (1.5 Units)
