Two AFC teams lock horns in Thursday Night Football for week 4, with the undefeated Miami Dolphins (3-0) heading to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals (1-2). Whilst this seems like a game between two of the AFC’s playoff contenders, if we fast forward a few months this game could prove critical to seedings in the AFC playoff picture, if not the difference between making the playoffs and missing out. With both teams playing divisional rivals next week, there’s a chance one of these teams could be flat heading into this big game.
On Monday Night Football we continued our solid start to the season, with a 2-unit winner with our best bet and our only alternate bet also getting up. We are now 4-1-2 (+3.61u) for the year in prime-time matches.
Ben Bridge brings you his best bets for the Dolphins at Bengals!
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Betting Tips
Paul Brown Stadium, Friday 10:15am AEST
Last Week
The Dolphins hosted the Bills in the game of the week, with the two AFC East rivals coming into the clash undefeated. In one of the crazier box scores I can remember, the Dolphins somehow managed to pull off a 21-19 victory, despite being outgained 497 yards to 212, whilst only having possession for 19 minutes, compared to the 41 minutes the Bills offense was on the field. This statistic alone plays into my handicap for this week’s matchup, with the Dolphins defence having to work this hard in oppressively hot Miami conditions. They will be drained this week, and with the short turnaround could really struggle to get up physically and mentally for this week’s game.
The Bengals finally got off the mark for season 2022/23, with a scrappy performance over the Jets last week. The Bengals defence held the Jets for the most part, however the team obviously benefited from winning the turnover battle 4-1. Whilst the coaching staff and players will obviously be happy to get the monkey off the back, they are still a far cry from the team that made the Super Bowl just 7 months ago. They get a great chance this week to build some momentum, however the pressure is still on this team, with a poor loss potentially ending their playoff hopes after only 4 weeks.
Injury Report
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa (QB) – QUESTIONABLE
Cethan Carter / Hunter Long / Adam Shaheen (TE) – OUT
Raekwon Davis (DT) – QUESTIONABLE
Cedrick Wilson Jr (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Terron Armstead (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
Xavien Howard (CB) – QUESTIONABLE
Jaylen Waddle (WR) – QUESTIONABLE
Byron Jones (CB) – OUT
Austin Jackson (OT) – OUT
Mackensie Alexander (CB) -QUESTIONABLE
Cincinnati Bengals
Isaiah Prince (OT) – OUT
La’el Collins (OT) – QUESTIONABLE
Drew Sample (TE) – OUT
DJ Reader (DT) – OUT
Germaine Pratt (LB) – QUESTIONABLE
Cam Taylor-Britt (CB) – OUT
Match Preview
The Dolphins have started the season 3-0, with their past two victories containing a fair chunk of luck. First, they overcame a 21-point deficit heading into the final quarter against the Ravens in Baltimore, before they held on against the Bills 21-19. In both games, the Dolphins were heavily outgained in yards per play and yards per passing play and could easily have lost both.
The Bengals have well and truly fallen into the Super Bowl hangover conversation, starting the season with two straight losses, before getting by a poor Jets team last week. Their season is hanging by a thread in the tough AFC, and a loss here will make their playoff chances shrink quite a lot.
The look ahead for this match up was Bengals -1.5, and after the Dolphins brutal contest against the Bills last week, re-opened at Bengals -2.5. On news of Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa being questionable, the number bounced to Bengals -4.5. Today, positive news has come in regarding Tua’s availability, and as such the Dolphins have been bet back down to +3.5 at most books.
With positive news on Tua, I believe you can probably sit and wait for the best number on the Bengals this week. I’m hoping it comes back to Bengals -3, and it should, however it might struggle to cross the pivotal NFL number of 3 and go back to Bengals -2.5. If it does and you can get Bengals -2.5, update this to a 3-unit play. The Bengals need the win here, and the Dolphins on their short turnaround after last week’s brutal contest will surely come out flat. I also like the Bengals first half handicap and total over 47.
Alternate Bets:
Over 47 - $1.95 @ Topsport
Bengals (-2.5) 1st half line - $1.82 @ Palmerbet
Bengals (-3)
$1.88 (2 Units)
