The best weekend of the NFL season kicks off on Sunday morning, with both the AFC and NFC number 1 seeds getting their playoff campaigns underway. First up, the Jacksonville Jaguars head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs, before the New York Giants head to Philadelphia to face their divisional rivals, the Philadelphia Eagles.
It was a rough Wild Card weekend betting wise, with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys erasing a nice little profit over the first 5 games to finish 4-6 (-1.05u).
With only 7 games remaining in the NFL this season, be sure to keep up to date with our NFL tips and best bets for each and every playoff game, starting with our best NFL bets for Divisional Round Sunday here.
NFL 2022-23: Divisional Round Sunday Preview & Betting Tips
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Sunday 8:30am AEDT
These teams squared off in week 10 in Kansas City, where the Chiefs were favoured by 9.5-points throughout the week, before winning comfortably 27-17. Following this game, the Jaguars had their bye, which is when the Jags started to turn their season around. They’ve since won 7 of their past 8, including a dramatic comeback win last week in Trevor Lawrence’s first start in the playoffs. The Jags trailed 27-0 early, off the back of 4 first half interceptions from Lawrence. A late 2nd quarter drive culminated in a 39 yard Zay Jones touchdown, cutting the lead to 20. Lawrence was tremendous in the 2nd half, as was the Jags defence, managing to win 31-30 on the back of some brilliant coaching by Doug Pederson. This week, they get a much different test.
Whereas last week the Jags got a quarterback and head coach combo that had never performed in the playoffs before, this week they get Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, two of the most experienced playoff competitors left in the field this year.
The number opened Chiefs -8/-8.5, and has slowly made it’s way to Chiefs -9.5. I can see it touching 10, where surely some Jags resistance hits the market. I believe it will close Chiefs -9.5, so we are now right on the correct number. So I’m going to go a little left of centre with my best bet for this game, with low odds, but a bet I’m very confident in. The Jaguars have been one of the best second half teams this season, but one of the worst first half teams. We’re going to play on this, betting Chiefs to cover the 1st half spread of -6. I don’t mind the Jaguars in the 2nd half, and recommend considering them to win the 2nd half if you’re into live betting.
Kansas City Chiefs – 1st half line (-6)
$1.86 (2.5 units)
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Sunday 12:15pm AEDT
The NFC East rivals meet for the third time in 6 weeks in the Divisional Round, but I’m happy to scrap the second meeting and focus on the first. The first meeting occurred in week 14 in New York, where the spread opened at Eagles -6, closing at -7. The Eagles never looked like losing, and never looked like not covering the spread, as they ran out 48-22 road winners. The Giants were torched on the ground, with the Eagles interior offensive line mauling the Giants defensive line, allowing Miles Sanders to run for 144 yards and Jalen Hurts 77 yards, whilst giving up 4 rushing touchdowns.
The Giants have looked really impressive since this game; however they haven’t really played anyone of note. Yes, they went to Minnesota last week and won, but the Vikings were frauds and legitimately the worst 13-win team in the history of the NFL. I see a nice advantage at the line of scrimmage on offense and defence for the Eagles, and if Jalen Hurts is anywhere near 100%, I cannot see the Giants keeping this close.
This one opened up Eagles -7.5, and got bet quickly towards the Giants, dropping the number to -7. Slowly but surely though, sharp money has come in on the Eagles, who are now 8-point favourites. I prefer the early number I managed of Eagles -7, however I make this closer to Eagles -9, so will lay the 7.5 and hope we don’t land on the key of 7.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
$1.93 (1.5 units)
