What a treat we have in store for Monday Night Football in week 17, as the Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) host the Buffalo Bills (12-3). This could be the game of the season, a potential preview of the AFC Championship, and a result which could have a massive bearing on the seedings in the AFC. The Bengals head into the matchup riding a 7-game winning streak, whilst the Bills are right behind, having won their past 6. I honestly can’t wait for this one, in a game that means so much to both teams.
A solid winner on Thursday Night Football, as the Cowboys eased their way past the Titans 27-13. We now sit at 30-28-1 (+3.37u) for the season.
Also, make sure to check out our NFL Tips page regularly to find our best bets for every week of the season!
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Betting TIps
Paul Brown Stadium, Tuesday 12:30pm AEDT
Last Week
The Bills struggled for a long-time last week against the Bears in Chicago, however powered their way home, scoring 29 points in the 2nd half, to come home 35-13 winners. They did their damage on the ground, with Devin Singletary rushing for 106 yards, James Cook 99 yards, and Josh Allen 41 yards, whilst all 3 punched one each into the endzone. Josh Allen once again turned the ball over, with his 2 interceptions last week leading to his 5th turnover in the past 5 weeks. The Bills will want to be far more careful with the ball this week, as the Bengals offense will punish any such errors.
Speaking of the Bengals, they kept their hot streak alive with a 22-18 victory over the Patriots. The first half was brilliant from the Bengals, shooting out to a 22-0 lead on the back of some precise passing from Joe Burrow. The Patriots, to their credit, mounted a comeback in the 2nd half, however, came up agonisingly short, as Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled late to secure the win for the Bengals.
Injury Report
Buffalo Bills
Micah Hyde (SS) – OUT
Von Miller (OLB) – OUT
Jake Kumerow / Jamison Crowder (WR) – OUT
Tommy Doyle (OT) – OUT
Christian Benford (CB) – OUT
Jordan Poyer (FS) – QUESTIONABLE
Cincinnati Bengals
La’el Collins (OT) – OUT
Chidobe Awuzie / Brandon Wilson (DB) – OUT
Drew Sample (TE) – OUT
Ben Brown (C) – OUT
Sam Hubbard (DE) – QUESTIONABLE
Match Preview
This is when you know two teams are playing that the market is noticeably confident about. The lookahead was Bills -1.5, the open was Bills -1.5, and the number currently sits at Bills -1.5. These two teams are both top 5 in the league by any power ratings you want to look at, and I agree. The market would also indicate that the Bills are a 3-point better team on a neural field than the Bengals. Once again, I agree. With the market being so efficient at this time of the season, and my numbers matching the market exactly, I will have no bet on the side of this game.
The total currently sits at 49.5. I have no doubt, if both these teams light it up, this could be a 60+ point shootout. But remember, we thought the Bills/Chiefs game earlier in the season was going to be the same. The Bills won 24-20, despite over 830 yards of total offense in the game. I can see this game being similar, with both teams likely to go for 4th downs regularly, as they both know points need to be scored. This could lead to long drives with zero points, or points galore. So again, I’ll stay away from the game total.
An angle I’m looking at in this one is which half will see more points. I can see a game state where if both teams manage early stops against the scripted portion of this game, the first half could be relatively low scoring. I then see the second half being a tremendous back-and-forth, with the team with the football last winning. I like the 2nd half being the highest scoring half.
For fun, a small bet on this game going to overtime, because who wouldn’t want more of this game!
Alternate Bet: Game to go to overtime (YES) - $16 @ Unibet (0.5u)
Highest scoring half (2nd)
$2 (1.5 Units)
