Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, September 27th.
The Group 1 Moir Stakes headlines the meeting, with dual Group 2s and dual Group 3s also on the card.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the true position.
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Friday, September 27th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (5) The Holy One E/W
Best Value: Race 7 - (3) The Bostonian
Keen on the favourite (1) King Of Hastings who ran 2nd to Super Seth first up at Caulfield. I think that could turn out to be a reasonably good form race and I think this is certainly an easier affair. The barrier draw is a little bit sticky for him but if he runs to his best he should be too strong for these. (2) Zoushack comes off back-to-back wins at Sale and Seymour. The Sale race has produced five subsequent winners so it looks a particularly strong form reference. He draws inside the favourite so if King Of Hastings finds difficulty in the run, Zoushack is probably your winner.
(1) King Of Hastings
$2.20
Keen to follow my money on (5) The Holy One, who I made my best bet last start when he was given absolutely no hope. He jumped a bit slow and then was caught wide before Meech sent him forward around the rest of the field. He had to do way too much work in the run and he was a sitting duck on the bend. He fought on to be beaten 2.1L which I thought was a good effort given the circumstances. He won't have that problem tonight from barrier 1. He could kick up to lead or he could sit on the heels of the leader, but he'll get an economic run regardless. He's at each way odds tonight and I think he represents a bit of value. (1) Power Scheme looks the logical danger. He raced wide first up but still proved too strong here at the Valley over 1500m. Draws better tonight in barrier 2 and looks the one to beat.
(5) The Holy One E/W
$8.00
Good little race and there's a couple I'm keen to back. (8) Princess Jenni is a Group 1 winner who returned with a midfield finish behind Spanish Whisper first up at Flemington. She produced a similar performance first up last preparation on her way to winning the G3 Alexandra Stakes over this track and distance second up. She's well drawn tonight so expect her to improve sharply and her best would see her win this. (3) Miss Siska ran really well first up at Flemington, going down by half-a-length to Spanish Whisper. While her second up record isn't fantastic, she did get beaten 0.4L in Group 1 company at this stage last preparation, so if she repeats an effort like that then she'll be very hard to beat. (4) Rondinella looks the value in the race to me. Whether the 1600m is a bit short is the query but she's got form around the likes of Melody Belle and Avilius from last prep and all her failures have come on wet ground, so the firmer footing at the Valley should suit her. (9) Oceanex and (10) Tides both have claims.
Value: (4) Rondinella $9.50
This is a very hot race! They should absolutely fly along in front, which might set it up for something swooping from the back. That something might be (9) God Of Thunder, who is in terrific form. He was beaten a nose first up, won second up and last start ran extremely well in defeat on a day where nothing was making ground. He was caught three-wide without cover near the back of the field and still ran the best 800m-200m sectional, beaten just under a length. From barrier 12 he'll take a hold early but if they crucify each other up front, he'll be swooping home over the top. I'm excited by the return of (5) Not Enough Effort, who won his first fourstarts before pulling up with an issue last start. He might get caught in the speed battle up front but he's a good horse and he's the one on-speed horse I'm in the corner of at around $6.00.
Value: (5) Not Enough Effort $6.00
This is a wide-open race with plenty of chances so I'll play each way on (4) Absolute Flirt here. She's only ever missed a place once and that was all the way back on debut. She's had no luck so far this prep. First up she was held up until the 100m mark here at the Valley, second up she was caught three-wide no cover on speed and last start she was held up until the 150m mark. She needs a good ride from barrier 7 but if she gets any luck at all she'll be right in the finish at around $6.00. (5) Villami has had two starts this prep and has bumped into Libertini on both occasions. That form is obviously very strong for a race like this in Melbourne, so if she has any luck from barrier 11 she should be tough to beat. (2) Loving Gaby is obviously a hugely talented filly but whether she's sharp enough over 1200m first up against race-fit fillies is the query. (1) Exhilarates will need luck from barrier 1.
(4) Absolute Flirt E/W
$6.00
Another good, competitive race. The favourite (6) Kentucky Breeze is flying and should be hard to beat, having won his past two starts over this track and distance. I think he's short enough now given he's drawn the inside gate and will likely need a bit of luck. I also think there's a bit of value to be found outside him in the market. (8) Mosh Music has won seven of her 10 career starts and is undefeated at this track and distance. She's won her only previous start when third up from a spell and even though she's going to have to loop them from the back of the field, I think the $7.00 on offer is a good price. (9) Sully has had two starts this prep and has had a total of zero luck in those starts. First up he was held up until the 100m mark with plenty to offer behind Age Of Chivalry, who then went on to run 2nd in Group 1 company. Last start was a similar story, getting held up from the 400m-100m mark and losing all chance. He doesn't win out of turn but with some luck today he can be very competitive. Finally, (2) Glory Days can go well at $10. She was just over a length off Mosh Music at Flemington last start with 60.5kg. Drops 4kg in the weights today and her third up record is outstanding, with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. One start at this distance was a win and Craig Williams keeps the ride. Happy to have something on all three of those to roll the favourite.
Race 7 - Group 1 Moir Stakes (Market)
The Group 1 Moir Stakes is going to be run at a furious tempo by the looks of it. If they choose to let (5) Nature Strip roll from the inside gate, there will probably be fireworks. In any case, I'm opposing Chris Waller's charge here. I think he needs to lead to win, but if he leads he's probably going to have to do so at a tempo that won't let him finish off. There's no shortage of competition for the lead and I doubt he'll get things his own way in front. He's yet to really prove he can win a race at this level when the pressure is on. Outside of him, I think the best value is (3) The Bostonian. He's likely to sit off the speed from the wide barrier so he should be suited by the tempo. He's undefeated from five first up attempts, including a Group 1 in Brisbane last preparation. The query for him is the distance as he's likely better over 1200m or so, but I can't ignore a fresh record like that. (2) Trekking also draws wide in gate 11. He's another that might be looking for 1200m or 1400m but he's been trialling enormously and will reslish the hot tempo up front. He looks in for a really good preparation and it would be no shock to see him run straight past them in the straight. I'll definitely be having something on at $7.00. Finally, (11) Sunlight is hard to ignore. She always needs her first up run so I wouldn't take too much notice of her poor showing first up. She also pulled up slightly lame after that and it was against the very best sprinters in the country after all. Pierata has come out of that race and franked the form. She's undefeated second up from a spell, including a victory in G1 company last prep. Just needs some luck from the gate.
(3) The Bostonian E/W
$12
Two I'll be playing on to finish the card here. (3) Mandela Effect comes into this first up from a spell. We've seen the strength of the Tasmanian form through the likes of Mystic Journey and The Inevitable and this horse also saluted in Melbourne last prep. He's won three of his five starts when first up and he's never finished out of the top two from five starts at the distance. Gets a handy claim for Michael Poy and draws well enough in barrier 6. Should be hard to beat tonight. (14) Lagerfield gains a run through scratchings and should measure up. He comes off a good win at Geelong . He's drawn a touch awkwardly in barrier 13 but he should be able to come across and find a spot up front.
Value: (14) Lagerfield $6.00
