Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for twilight racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, October 6th.
We have a pretty standard eight-race card tonight, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail moved out to the 7m position. The track manager has said he expects the track to favour leaders/frontrunners in the first 3 races but even out in the later races.
We have betting tip and comments for every race below to kick off a huge weekend of racing!
Listen to @Tim_Tips Racing Preview with the Before You Bet Podcast!
In Episode 3 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Flemington and Randwick and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Saturday, October 7th! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Bequeathed EW
Best Value: Race 8 Belsapphire EW
Race 1
Really quite keen on having a 1x3 bet on BEQUEATHED here at the $6/$2.10 available. This filly from the Hayes/Dabernig team ran 3rd on debut behind The Queen’s Reward and Divine Messenger. Those two fillies then came out and ran the quinella at their next start in a midweek race at Flemington, so the form is strong. Leading into her debut, Bequeathed trialled very stylishly at Tatura, winning under a stranglehold with a gap of 6L back to 3rd. In her debut run she settled back in the field from barrier 8 of 10, but I would hope and expect them to sit much closer to the speed today from barrier 1. The extra 200m will suit her, and I think she’s a great chance so keen to back her each way. SEIZED comes up very short for mine at $2.80, and I’m unsure what the tactics will be from the wide draw. On debut he led from barrier 1 at this track, but in three subsequent runs he was ridden off the pace. He has solid enough form behind the likes of Muraaqeb, Speed Street and Pure Scot, but the wide draw is enough to put me off at the price. CHOISBORDER will be right in the finish. He sat on speed last start so from the good draw I’d expect him to box seat. Rawiller takes over from John Allen so no surprise to see him win. CONNERY was well-backed on debut at Cranbourne and motored home from the back of the field. Will get a long way back from barrier 9 here, which is a concern given the early races are tipped to favour front-runners. Include THE GROVE.
TIP: Bequeathed EW (Best Bet)
Race 2
Really ugly race to bet into and a lot depends on CHEQUERED FLAG here. He’s first up for 47 days after running 2nd in a hurdle race over 3200m last start. Before that his flat form was terrific with a big win at Sandown followed by a narrow 2nd to Yogi. If he brought that kind of form here he’d win, but I just query the gap since his last run. Weir isn’t on his best run of form at the moment with just the five winners from about his last 75 runners. I’m not saying he can’t win, but there’s just too many queries for me to back him confidently at the price. KING WAY will lead and is rock hard fit on the six-day back-up after running 2nd at Mornington last Saturday. The only one I could consider backing is BLING DYNASTY, which tells you all you need to know about the race because this is a horse I never back. But he gets things to suit today. He should box seat from barrier 2, has won two from three at the track, and has won his only start at the track and distance. Was comfortably beaten by King Way last start but he gets a firm track here which suits him better than the other horse, and gets a senior rider and a swing in the weights. CRY IF I WANT TO isn’t hopeless at big odds.
TIP: Bling Dynasty EW
Race 3
Another ugly race. JOLIE’S CAFÉ has run 2nd at his past two starts and drops back to BM64 from BM70 grade last start. He was beaten by an impressive winner last start in Strong Hand who looks to have returned from a spell in terrific form having won both starts by a combined 8L. Jolie’s Café goes up in weight due to the drop in grade but does get senior rider Noel Callow on board today. Will position right up on the speed and can go close. FREE WILLY will likely lead from barrier 9. He ran them into the ground two starts ago in this grade and at this distance at Swan Hill. He then tackled a harder race at Flemington last Wednesday and stuck on okay to be beaten 3L by Silvera. If he gets any sort of comfort in the lead then he’ll be hard to catch back in this grade given the track is expected to favour leaders early. Looks value at $14. MINOAN SPIRIT ran well behind Sully last start, who then went to compete in tougher races in Sydney. Will be thereabouts once again for Weir/Rawiller. THINK ALIKE should be nearing some sort of fitness now third up from a very lengthy spell but gets a hike in the weights today which will make it tough.
TIP: Jolie’s Café / Free Willy EW
Race 4
Looks a lovely race for the hugely impressive debut winner SEVEN YEAR REWARD, provided he gets a run as first emergency. He’d had two very nice trials leading into his debut race and certainly backed them up, settling 4th before dashing away in the straight to win by 7L. He draws the widest gate here so tactics will play a part, but he just looks better than them based on the time he ran on debut. If he gets a run, I think he wins, and there’s still $1.80 available at Bet365 compared to the $1.65-$1.70 available everywhere else. If he doesn’t get a run, DUNGENESS will be favourite and will go close. Bolted in to win a recent trial by 5.5L and the horse that ran 2nd in the trial then won its next start. I’d also include BILLABONG BABE who will go forward and has a good record at the track and distance, while NEW YORK CELEBRITY can go well too.
TIP: Seven Year Reward
Race 5
Wide open race and they could go like the clappers here over the 955m dash. There’s a few unknowns in the race but I’ve landed on the favourite MISS VISTA. She’s got a great first up record and has four wins from eight starts in her career. She hasn’t trialled publicly leading into this and I suspect from barrier 6 she’ll be ridden with a sit here as opposed to leading at all costs. Although Linda Meech is booked to ride, so she may well lead. There’s enough pace from other runners to allow her to take a sit if that’s what the stable want to do. At the $4 I’m prepared to back her. RUNSATI will get a great run from barrier 2 and gets in well with the c3kg claim. I don’t normally like backing 3kg claiming apprentices at the Valley, particularly in these short races, but the horse has never missed a place over the track and distance so expect her to go well at double figure odds. CONCHITA was legless last prep but has won her only start at the track and has a formidable record at the distance. Has two trials under the belt in Sydney leading into this and draws well. SCANDIMANIA is first up for Weir off a 278-day break. Has won two from three first up from a spell and is undefeated at the track and distance. Typically goes forward so should inject some speed into the race but whether Weir employs those tactics is another question. MODERN WONDER is nearing a win, and ANOTHER DIAMOND is from an astute stable so could be set for this first up – watch the market. Very tough race.
TIP: Miss Vista / Runsati EW
Race 6
Two I’ll be backing in this. The first is BLACK SHEEP for Weir, who said on radio was one of his best chances of the night and he thought it was actually a better chance than the stablemate EBEDIYIN, who is favourite for the race. I was relatively keen on Black Sheep anyway but that comment solidified my thoughts. He’s had a bit of an interrupted prep this time in but should be ready to peak at his fifth run back and back up to 1600m. He was beaten 1L last start after settling at the back of a small field, and he gets back to his favourite track and distance. He’s got three wins and a second from five starts at this track and distance, gets in well after the claim for Ben Thompson, and just needs a good ride from the tricky barrier. $6.50 is a reasonable price. His stablemate EBEDIYIN won well at good odds for us last start but he had a dream run in the race and was aided by a peach from Damian Lane. Draws wide here so hard to see him getting the same run. Not saying he can’t win but not keen at the price. VIOLATE comes out of some strong form races this prep behind the likes of Mr Sneaky, Theanswermyfriend and Silvera. Should get things to suit here but he’s a bit of a non-winner and happy to play around him again. RADICAL should have won last start at this track and distance but was luckless. Draws well here but will once again need luck. Has reportedly trialled superbly coming into this so keen to have something on at $18. SBRING DREAM should go well second up but she’s only placed once from four starts at the distance, and she was beaten 4.5L on that occasion. Happy to take on Sunday Pray even though it maps to lead. Will need to work early and not sure he can run a strong 1600m if he has to spend petrol early.
TIP: Black Sheep EW / Radical EW
Race 7
Another wide-open race. Interested in two at decent odds. The first is HECTOPASCAL who comes into this first up. Broke her maiden first up last prep and went on to win in BM64 grade before failing in Listed grade in Adelaide. Draws beautifully and should get the run of the race from barrier 4. In well at the weights with the claim and based off how the speed map looks, I think we’re getting a good price at $9. BALLINACLASH has poor form on paper but strikes a winnable race here. Drops back to BM64 grade and he’s had just the one start in this grade previously which was a win. Draws well in barrier 3, has won his only start at the track and distance, and his run behind Bon’s Away two starts ago looks good for a race like this. Can back him too at $8.50. Former Godolphin horse FANFARON is first up for the new trainer and could show up as one of only two rides for Daniel Moor on the night. PRINCETON SPIRIT is favourite after winning both career starts to date. No real knock but first run on turf, first time at the Valley, draws awkward and has a 3kg apprentice on so can find reasons not to back it.
TIP: Hectopascal EW / Ballinaclash EW
Race 8
Theme of the night continues here with a difficult race to finish off the night. Leaning towards taking on the two favourites here. LOVE DAYS resumes from a long spell and has raced just twice since June last year. She’s clearly had some issues that have restricted her to just seven starts in her career. She did run well first up last prep off a long spell when beaten by a nose in similar grade to this. She will land on the speed from barrier 3 and she’s finished in the top two at both starts at this track so expect her to go well. DOC’S HERO has won both starts this prep but she’ll find things tougher here with a 4kg hike in the weights. She’s placed in two of her three runs over the track and distance and des get a good barrier draw, but she’ll need to improve once more to win under these conditions. Keen to back GWENNETH at $6.50, though she will have to work from the wide barrier to find the lead. She led first up and gave a good kick before being run down late by Motown Lil in Wednesday grade at Sandown. She’s won her only previous run second up from a spell, has never missed a place at the distance and has two placings at the track and distance. If she can find the rail without burning too much energy then she’ll be tough to run down. Also keen to back BELSAPPHIRE, who will be suited if the tempo is hot. Comes into this first up and really should have gone close to winning first up last prep. She was blocked from the 400m-50m on that occasion and hit the line well when she eventually got out. Followed that up with a minor placing behind Grey Street and Miss Vista which is solid form for this. Has trialled nicely leading into this, will get back but if they’re making ground late in the night like we expect them to, then she’ll be in with a chance of winning this. Backing her at the $12 on offer.
TIP: Gwenneth / Belsapphire EW (Best Value)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
