Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, December 6th.
We kick off another big weekend of racing in Australia with eight races under lights at The Valley, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail out 2m.
Check out @Tim_Tips' race-by-race preview below.
Horse Racing Tips: Friday, December 6th
Best Bet: Race 8 - (2) Vongole
Best Value Bet: Race 6 - (9) High Sierra
Race 1
Keen to be with the Patrick Payne-trained debutant (1) Baywash here, who has his first race start after four trials. They've been patient with him - he had three of those trials at the start of the year but didn't go to the races. He then came back and trialled once at Cranbourne last month, where he went to the line locked together with the winner, and now comes straight to a metro race on debut. I think he's the one to beat and this stable is very astute. The value could be the John Sadler-trained (3) Private Universe who returns as a gelding. Ben Melham is a key jockey booking so watch the market with him.
Race 2
(5) Grand Scholar has returned from a spell in terrific order, winning both her starts this campaign in dominant fashion. She was a 3.5L winner first up in maiden grade at Cranbourne and followed that with a 1.75L win over Rolls here at the Valley last start. Rolls then came out and won by about 3L at her next start so that form is pretty reasonable. She'll be too good for these.
Race 3
2YO fillies race with no race form to go off here so bet at your own risk. I tend to side with certain stables in these juvenile races and at the top of that list is the Hayes, Hayes, Dabernig yard. They've had plenty of success already this season with their babies, including picking up both 2YO races during Cup week at Flemington. They then ran another one here last week which should have won, and they send (1) Avenue Of Pleasure around here tonight. She's got an awkward draw to contend with in barrier 9 but I think they'll roll forward and if they can sit outside the leader or similar, I think she'll be right in the finish. At $7.00, she's my each way bet in the race. (7) Lai See represents Grahame Begg and Jordan Childs and I expect her to race well. He's an astute trainer and generally when he sends them around in races like this they measure up. $6.50 isn't a bad price. Open race.
(1) Avenue Of Pleasure E/W
$7.00
Race 4
(2) Front Of Stage produced a big effort last start behind Talenti, running 2nd second up off a very long spell. Talenti then came out and won impressively again last weekend so the form has some depth to it. He should be improved tonight given its his third run back from 69 weeks off. The blinkers come off as he steps up to the mile and the only query is he goes up in weight without the apprentice claim tonight, so he carries the full 60kg for Ethan Brown. (1) Duke Of Magnus was very well backed at Sandown last start but was caught wide without cover throughout the race. Dwayne Dunn takes over tonight and he's drawn well enough in barrier 5 so with even luck I exect him to go very close.
Race 5
The 955m race is a tough one to assess but I'm going with the John Sadler/Ben Melham combination with (10) Deploys Alone. In the last 12 months Melham has had 22 rides for Sadler, resulting in seven wins and 10 placings and an ROI of 354%. What that tells us is when he's booked for Sadler, it's generally for a good reason and the horse normally performs well. The horse was beaten a nose first up last preparation and I reckon they'll have him ready to win this tonight. (12) Invincible Lotus was a dominant winner on debut but hasn't been able to produce anything like that since. He ran nine weeks ago but was well beaten as a $3.50 chance. They put him straight back out and bring him straight to this race fresh from a break. I suspect he'll go much better tonight. (4) All In Brawl next.
Race 6
(4) Nerve Not Verve should slide forward to race right up on the speed and should take some beating from there. She raced on speed two starts ago at Cranbourne and was a dominant winner, before being beaten half-a-length at Sandown last time out. No reason she can't go close in this. I think the value is (9) High Sierra. She steps up in grade after racing in BM58 company last start, but she was very competitive in BM84 grade at the end of last prep when she raced over 3000m. She didn't have much luck last start, held up until late in the straight before charging home when she finally got clear. One of her two career wins came third up from a spell and she looks well placed in my opinion. (5) Pina might just get a touch too far back, that's the query. One to throw in your blackbook is (3) Rondalago. She won't win tonight but she might next start at big odds - she won last start but her second up record is poor, but wait til she gets third up where she goes enormous.
Value: (9) High Sierra $11
(4) Nerve Not Verve
$3.10
Race 7
This is a very tough race so I'll just have a small each way bet on (12) Kuramae. She returned from a spell with a win at Terang where she ran the second fastest final 400m and fastest final 200m of the entire meeting. She draws well in barrier 3 here and gets Ben Melham aboard which is a positive. It's a very open race but $7.00 looks a decent price for her. (5) Need New Friends is the only runner on the night for trainer Danny O'Brien, whose team is absolutely airborne. (1) Flostar has won two from three this prep and must be included, while (2) Comat Order is undefeated and is first up from a spell.
Race 8
(2) Vongole goes on top to close out the night. He's first up from a spell with two wins from three career starts to his name. He draws a touch awkwardly in barrier 8 and has some weight to carry, he'll probably need to come from off the pace but I think he's a talented sort of horse and I don't think there's a great deal of depth to this race. Enver Jusufovic is a very astute trainer and we saw him win a race in town first up with a similar sort of horse recently, so he can do so again here. I'm very happy to take on (3) Good Therapy who has a good second up record but goes poorly third up. (10) Tradies Tea Break may be the value.
