Pat Cummins and his men embark on the first step of a legacy defining year when Australia takes on India in the 1st Test Match at Nagpur. The hosts will come in as heavy favourites, but can Cummins become just the third Australian captain to lead his side to a series win on Indian soil?
Jack Tobin has got you covered with his preview and tips for the 1st Test of the Border-Gavaskar series, and be sure to check out our Cricket Tips page for previews of every match of this series!
India vs Australia 1st Test Betting Tips
Nagpur, 9th-13th February, 3.00pm (AEDT)
Squads
India: Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul, Shubman Gill, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KS Bharat, Ishan Kishan, R. Ashwin, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammad Shami, Mohammed Siraj, Umesh Yadav, Jaydev Unadkat, Suryakumar Yadav.
Australia: Pat Cummins, Ashton Agar, Scott Boland, Alex Carey, Cameron Green, Peter Handscomb, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Lance Morris, Todd Murphy, Matt Renshaw, Steve Smith, Mitchell Starc, Mitch Swepson, David Warner
India
Predicted XI: Rohit Sharma, KL Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara, Virat Kohli, Shubman, Ishan Kishan, Ravindra Jadeja, R. Ashwin, Axar Patel, Mohammad Shami, Mohammed Siraj
The big news when India announced their squad for this series back in January was the absences of Rishab Pant and Jasprit Bumrah. Pant was involved in a horrific car crash that has left him with serious injuries that will likely fill him out for the entirety of 2023, while Bumrah is still dealing with back and knee issues that forced him to miss the T20 World Cup. Shreyas Iyer has also been ruled out of the first Test with a back injury, opening the door for Shubman Gill to be selected in the side, after a some dominant white ball performances in recent months. Gill has scored three hundreds and a double hundred from his last seven One Day Internationals.
On a positive note for India, Ravindra Jadeja has recovered from his knee injury, and is expected to be selected in the first Test. The player to keep an eye on selection wise is Suryakumar Yadav, who has been included in the Test squad for the first time after a stunning year in white ball cricket, will India pull the trigger on a potential x-factor selection?
India come into the Border-Gavaskar series on the back of a 2-0 win over Bangladesh in Bangladesh, and a 2-0 series win at home against Sri Lanka. India struggled away from home in 2022 with losses in South Africa and England, however their home record is still remarkable having not lost a series in India since 2012. In that timespan India have a 34-6-2 record, with a 4-0 and 2-1 series wins against Australia in 2013 and 2017 respectively.
After a lean few years with the bat, Virat Kohli picked up his form with the bat in white ball cricket in 2022, and an in-form Kohli has the capacity to take the series away from Australia in a matter of sessions if he’s on song. Kohli has scored 2 centuries from six innings at an average of 67 in ODI’s in 2023 and has scored 354 runs at an average of 69 in his last nine T20I’s. It’s only a matter of time before Kohli explodes in red ball cricket.
Australia
Predicted XI: David Warner, Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Travis Head, Matt Renshaw, Alex Carey, Ashton Agar, Pat Cummins, Scott Boland, Nathan Lyon
Mitchell Starc has been ruled out with a finger injury, while Josh Hazlewood won’t play in the first Test with an Achilles injury, making it likely that the Australians will go with a bowling attack made up of Pat Cummins, Scott Boland, Nathan Lyon and Ashton Agar. Cummins has made it clear since the lead up to the New Year’s Test that Agar will have a big role to play in this series, given the success left arm finger spinners have had in India. In another blow for the Australians, Cameron Green is also expected to be unavailable for the First Test as he still recovers from the broken finger he suffered in the Boxing Day Test. It leaves a battle between Matt Renshaw and Peter Handscomb for the number six position who were Australia's two best bastmen behind Steve Smith in the 2017 Border-Gavaskar series in Inida. Renshaw scored 232 runs while Handscomb scored 198, given Renshaw's selection in the Sydney Test, it's clear he's at the front of the selectors minds, and will likely get the nod over the Victorian skipper.
The Aussies have come off a dominant summer winning all five of their Test matches against the West Indies and South Africa, but the form from those series’ will hold very little relevance taking on the biggest challenge in world cricket. Australia will be drawing on their 1-0 series win over Pakistan last year, in what was the side’s biggest achievement under Andrew McDonald.
This Australian side is as best equipped to win on the subcontinent of any Australian side since 2004, with a batting lineup featuring a lot of great players of spin. Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, and Alex Carey are all high quality players of spin, now they must bring that skill to the most difficult conditions in world cricket.
Whilst the batters must do their job, Nathan Lyon and Ashton Agar outperforming Ashwin, Axar and Jadeja looms as the most important factor of the series if Australia are to win. There are no questions around Lyon, however Agar’s record at both domestic and Test level doesn’t inspire much confidence. Agar has been picked purely as a role based selection, and if he can perform during this season, it will be another huge tick for McDonald and his staff on their ability to create an environment for players to succeed.
Match Prediction
India at $1.83 is pretty remarkable value in this fixture, although Australia have brought over one of their best suited lineups since their last victory on Indian soil, outside of Steve Smith and Nathan Lyon, this side is unproven on the subcontinent. The Australians will take confidence from the way they were able to remain calm and grind out a series victory in Pakistan, you only have to go back to the 2nd Test against Sri Lanka in July last year to be reminded of how Australian sides can have a game taken away from them in a matter of a session.
The loss of Starc for this Test is crucial given his variety he provides as a left-armer, as well as being Australia’s best exponent of reverse swing bowling. India must win this series 3-0 at least to guarantee their spot in the World Test Championship Final, and they will be looking to make a statement early in the series. Australia will be competitive, however India are still far too good in these conditions.
Prop Bets
As mentioned earlier, Kohli is finding his form once again and it looms as a scary prospect for Australia. Kohli has scored 1682 runs at an average of 48, with 7 hundreds and 5 fifties in Test matches against Australia. Kohli lifts for the big occasion, and will be ready to make his mark early in this series.
Virat Kohli Over 36.5 Runs, $1.83 with Ladbrokes
Usman Khawaja was recently named Australian Test player of the year after an outstanding 2022 calendar year where he scored 1080 runs at an average of 67, with four centuries and five half centuries. Khawaja has shown his capacity to dominate against spin, and has the game required to succeed on the subcontinent, with his ability to shift through the gears during an innings.
