Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Happy Valley on Wednesday, December 4th.
Tonight's meeting is Happy Valley's biggest event of the HK racing season, with the 2019 LONGINES International Jockeys' Championship taking center stage.
The IJC is decided in races 3, 4, 6 and 7 on the card, and sees 12 of the world's leading riders competing for the $500,000 HKD prize!
Tim has previewed all nine races on the card below and given our thoughts on the IJC market.
Happy Valley Racing Tips: 2019 IJC Night
Best Bet: Race 5 - (9) Righteous Mate
Best Value: Race 3 - (2) Dollar Reward
International Jockeys' Championship Winner: Ryan Moore $4.50 / Yuga Kawada $21 (Sportsbet)
Race 1 (Market)
This is a feral race to start off with, just putrid. Typically, barriers 1-5 are gold mines over the 1200m at Happy Valley on the B-course. They've accounted for 51 of the 79 starters over the track and distance when the rail is in the B position this season. (6) I'm The Conquist can go on top. He's back at Happy Valley tonight after three runs at Sha Tin. He found the 1400m a touch too far two starts back and then didn't go any good on the dirt last start. He ran well over 1200m on the turf at Sha Tin three starts back though and that was in Class 4. I think this is the most suitable race he's found all prep and he's drawn gate 5 for a good run. (12) Nashashuk looks the value in the race at $9.00 but keep in mind he's a winner of just one race from 31 starts, so he hardly jumps off the page. But his first up run was very good when he ran 2nd, beaten half-a-length over this track and distance. He didn't do much at Sha Tin last start but back to Happy Valley third up looks a positive. His only career win came third up. Teetan on with the light weight - he doesn't get a better chance than this. (7) Yee Cheong Lucky draws well in gate 4. He had no luck caught wide last start. JMac jumps aboard tonight. The horse goes no good but he gets everything in his favour to run well tonight at $21. (2) Farm Bumper and (4) Great Son next best.
Value: (12) Nashashuk $9.00 & (7) Yee Cheong Lucky $21
(6) I'm The Conquist
$4.80
Race 2 (Market)
Four chances to highlight in an open race here. (2) Chaparral Star's form looks pretty ordinary but he drops into Class 5 tonight and gets back to a track and distance he races well at. He's had six starts at the 1650m at Happy Valley, for one win and three minor placings. Last time he raced here, he won, and that was in Class 4. He went into that race on the back of some plain efforts at Sha Tin so he brings a similar kind of form line into tonight's race. From the good draw I'd be including him at double figure odds. (6) Happy Hour is knocking on the door for a win. He was taken back from the wide draw last start and ran home in the clear best final 400m of the race. He didn't stay the 2200m two starts ago so forgive him for that, and his run three back was also good. Ideally drawn in barrier 5 for De Sousa, he'll be right in the finish. (9) Wonderful Tiger has won two on the bounce and although it's not easy to win three consecutive races in Hong Kong, he's a chance of doing so. He's been finishing off very well in his past couple of races over the track and distance and he should be able to sit closer tonight from the midfield draw. He rises in the ratings and the weights again but he's still of a mark he can be competitive at. (11) Kwaichung Brothers is a good price at $9.00. He ran 5th, beaten 2.5L by Wonderful Tiger first up from a 15-week spell. They ran an identical 800m-400m split but Wonderful Tiger finished off much better in the final 400m. Wonderful Tiger of course had race fitness on his side, whereas Kwaichung Brothers was first up. He gets a 5.5kg weight swing in his favour tonight, he's drawn well and Purton takes over from Neil Callan. He can win. I'd be backing Kwaichung Brothers, with something small on Chaparral Star and a saver on Happy Hour.
Value: (2) Chaparral Star $10
(11) Kwaichung Brothers
$9.00
Race 3 (Market)
(10) Master Albert finished off well last start and has run well in all four starts this campaign but I don't see much value in him at $3.80. He gets his chance again with a good draw tonight but he's a horse that's failed to deliver on multiple occasions so I'll look around him. The reason we're getting $10 for (2) Dollar Reward is probably because he's yet to win from 19 starts at Happy Valley. he has placed on seven occasions though and he comes into this in career best form, so I'll try him at the odds. He won two races on the bounce at Sha Tin before a luckless run last start when held up the entire straight. He's drawn well to sit midfield from barrier 6 and tonight might be the night he gets his elusive win at the Valley. (5) Viva Council can be included at a bit of value too. He's a $10 chance and probably shouldn't be. He's mixing his form a bit but his effort to run 2nd to Dollar Reward two starts ago at Sha Tin was good, and he just had no luck when trapped three-wide without cover last start. He draws barrier 1 tonight, which is a gold mine at this track and distance, so I'll back him at the double figure odds too.
Value: (5) Viva Council $10
Race 4 - IJC Leg 1 (Market)
The first leg of the International Jockeys' Championship. Going with the Japanese here, Yuga Kawada, who rides (11) Happy Good Guys. He drew wide last start but managed to slot in midfield and ran home well into 2nd behind (2) G Unit. He's been back to the trials, where he won his heat, he draws well and he carries a light weight again so he can turn the tables. (12) Prawn Yeah Yeah won in Class 5 two starts ago and then was given no hope last start when trapped on the rails, held up most of the straight. He's a chance at double figure odds. (4) Very Sweet Orange has been racing well and rates as a chance once more, while (1) Everbrave went close first up before an average effort last start. Look for him to improve tonight.
(11) Happy Good Guys
$5.50
Race 5 - IJC Leg 2(Market)
I think Ryan Moore's mount (9) Righteous Mate is a clear top pick here and I'm surprised we're getting $4.00. He was a winner here two starts back and then produced a big effort to run 2nd last start, beaten just half-a-length. He meets the 3rd and 4th horses from that race again here in (8) Charity Wings and (7) Dream Warriors, and I'm surprised they're as close to him in the market as they are. He ran past them last start, recording a much faster final 800m and 400m, gets Ryan Moore on tonight and deserves to be a clear cut favourite for mine. Yuga Kawada has another sneaky chance in the form of Douglas Whyte's runner (6) Winning Endeavour, who has had absolutely nothing go right for him this preparation. He is an each way chance at $13.
Value: (6) Winning Endeavour $13
Race 6 (Market)
Looks a two-horse race here between (2) Blastoise and (3) Zhan Jiang Rocks. Purton rode both these horses last start and he chooses to stick with Zhan Jiang Rocks tonight, which may purely be because he was booked to ride it already before he won on Blastoise last start. Ryan Moore takes over the ride tonight and even though he gets a steep rise in the weights, he looks the one to beat with the good draw. Zhan Jiang Rocks is knocking on the door, he's placed in both starts this prep and draws barrier 2 tonight, so we could see him a little bit closer, though he's settled back in the field regardless of what he's drawn recently. Very hard to split these two but I'll stick with Blastoise who should get the gun run up on speed.
Race 7 - IJC Leg 3 (Market)
Oisin Murphy looks a good chance of picking up maximum points in the third leg of the IJC with the ride aboard (2) Charizard. He's always shown plenty of talent this horse and hs run last start over this track and distance was good enough to see him win this. That was behind High Rev which is a horse that's absolutely airborne, and he was beaten just 0.75L after running home in the fastest final 400m of the race. (6) Beauty Day hasn't finished out of the top four in his past eight starts. There's no reason he can't run well again. (12) Clear Choice is the value at $16 and gives De Sousa another chance of picking up some points. He's third up tonight and returns to Happy Valley. Well drawn, lightly-weighted and I expect him to improve again tonight. The most interesting runner is (7) Pakistan Friend, a talented horse resuming from throat surgery for Paul O'Sullivan and Frankie Dettori.
Value: (12) Clear Choice $16
Race 8 - IJC leg 4 (Market)
(10) High Rev looks just about a banker for Karis Teetan. He's won three of his past four starts, all over the 1650m at Happy Valley, and he now steps up to 1800m. He's been winning comfortably down in Class 3, so even though he rises to Class 2 for the first time tonight, he looks capable of winning again. I'm also very interested in (6) Happy Dragon for John Moore and Frankie Dettori. He's returned in terrific order. He won first up over 1650m and then ran 2nd to Playa Del Puente, who looks set to be a contender in the major 4YO races next year. I think that's a really solid form line and Happy Dragon has a good record at this track and distance already. He's the value at $7.50 and I'd be surprised if anything outside them won.
Value: (6) Happy Dragon $7.50
Race 9 (Market)
He's up against it at the weights but I'm sticking with the barrier 1 1200m advantage that (1) Joyful Union has. He's been good in his two starts back this preparation and Purton jumps aboard for the first time this prep tonight. He gets the gun run but will need it with the extra weight. (6) Dancing Fighter did it the hard way last start, sitting wide throughout and still proving too good. He's drawn wide again but he'll be in the finish. (5) Namjong Sings is ready to win third up with Ryan Moore aboard after a good run behind Dancing Fighter last start despite having little luck throughout. (3) Island Shine next best.
International Jockeys' Championship
Karis Teetan has a good book for the legs of the IJC and basically gets a free win in Leg 4 with High Rev, but there's no value in backing him at $2.30. Ryan Moore also has a number of good chances and if he can be around the mark all night then he'll go very close to winning, so I'd rather take the $4.50 about him. The value looks to be Yuga Kawada at $21, while Silvestre De Sousa is also over the odds at $21.
