Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, January 18th.
Today's meeting is a twilight meeting so we've got a later start than usual, but still nine races to find a few winners.
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 9m. Find our preview, tips and best bets below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, January 18th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (1) Blossom On Snow
Best Value Bet: Race 9 - (7) Good Idea
Two-year-old race to kick things off. (4) Avenue Of Pleasure didn't get a great deal of luck on debut at Moonee Valley where she was well supported in the betting. She was held up until about 150m from home and had to weave through the field when eventually clear. Down the straight she should realistically get her chance and I think she can atone for the first up defeat. (6) Personal didn't get any luck on debut either, sitting three-wide the trip in a field of five. Oliver is replaced by Williams today and she can also unsurprisingly bounce back. (5) Parlophone had some support on debut but tried to buck jump and finished tailed off last. Watch betting again.
(4) Avenue Of Pleasure
$4.80
(2) Pierless hasn't done much wrong in recent times, coming into this on the back of a winning hattrick. She gets out and makes her own luck and she should be able to lead again today, if not sit outside Kardashing. No reason she can't give a good sight out the front once more at each way odds. (6) Red Heeler will be suited by the step up in distance after dropping back to 1400m last start. (5) Ruby Skye was big in defeat last start and can give this a shake once again.
I have no doubt (4) Banquo is the best horse in the race but first up over 1100m might just find her out, as it's a bit short of her best trip. For that reason I've gone with (2) Alabama Express on top. He resumes from a spell too and he's a bit better suited at the distance. He's got a good first up record and should prove hard to beat. It's hard to know which (1) Condo's Express is going to turn up but the booking of Meech suggests they'll be looking to lead with him first up.
(2) Alabama Express
$3.90
(1) Blossom On Snow is undefeated from two career starts and can make it three here. He has to carry 60kg but he did so when leading all the way over the mile last start at Caulfield, and I don't think the step up to 2000m poses many problems for the son of Sebring. (2) Rogue's Point won easily at Cranbourne two starts back and finished off well to be beaten a nose last start over the mile at Sandown Lakeside. Will be right in the finish again. (7) Rapid Romance draws well but was beaten comfortably enough by Blossom On Snow when they last met.
(1) Blossom On Snow
$2.60
Sticking with (2) Bold Star who continues to race well and comes into this off a 2nd placing to Halvorsen, which rates as a good formline. The drop back to 1000m probably isn't a bad thing for him and his only start over the track and distance was a good win two starts ago. There's no reason he can't win this. Silver Slipper Stakes winner (3) Time To Reign resumes today off a 43-week break and he's had four trials spaced out by a few months, so it's clear not everything has been plain sailing. Blinkers go on first time and he's been well supported, but I'm always sceptical of horses that haven't won since they were two. (1) All Too Royal won very well first up, just as he did last prep, but the query is whether he's a first up horse and whether he can go on with it second up. (4) My Pendant is a 1400m horse but I wouldn't put it past her running a place first up here.
Very keen on (8) Fabric here for Danny O'Brien and Craig Williams. She won first up last prep and went on to win another couple of races, including one which was of better quality than this. Of course, she will improve with this run under her belt but I think she's good enough to win it fresh, especially with the good draw. (11) Wentwood is the horse that absolutely terrifies me. He's making his Australian debut and is trained by Maddie Raymond, who is Lindsey Smith's forewoman at Warrnambool and used to work with Darren Weir. Watch the market! (13) Vongole isn't hopeless at double figure odds.
(4) High Bridge was a heartbreaking result last start when we took $7.50 and he went down by a nose after being backed into $3.90. He had his chance that day and he'll get his chance again today in the small field from barrier 1. The drop back in trip is some query but the firm track will suit and he should be right in the finish. (1) The Lord Mayor has the positive factor of stepping up in distance rather than dropping back in distance. He won here at Flemington over 2000m last prep. The little query with him is whether he's better suited on a wet track. (2) El Don won the Bagot last start but he had a dream run throughout from the inside gate on that occasion. Today's race is a different set of circumstances given his draw.
There's plenty that need to go into the quaddie here. (2) Just Hifalutin resumes from a long break and has a terrific record at this track, with five top-two finishes from six starts. She might be better suited next start but I wouldn't leave her out. (4) Choisborder is huge odds at $41. He's done little in his first two runs back from a spell but he's undefeated third up from a spell, gets the winkers on for the first time and is a winner at this track and distance before. (8) Lord Von Costa ran 2nd here first up and drops 3kg in the weights. He's even better suited second up and he always runs well here at Flemington. (9) Chicago Cub was the horse that beat Lord Von Costa last start and he comes into this on the same weight as he carried in that win. Has to be included again. (10) Clarice Cliffs probably needed the run first up. She was just found out in the straight but she'll take plenty of improvement from that and Oliver sticks with her. (11) Moor Wanted wasn't beaten far last start and has two wins from four starts when third up from a spell. He goes well down the straight and looks a good bet at $16. (14) Montenegro Man has returned in terrific order and was impressive winning last start. So long as he handles the straight track, he should be flooding home once again.
Montenegro Man goes on top, but I'll also be having something small on Choisborder, Lord Von Costa and Moor Wanted at the odds.
(14) Montenegro Man
$3.90
Tough way to finish off. (7) Good Idea is worth a bet at $23. He did nothing first up but he produced a similar run first up last prep before stepping up sharply in distance and winning second up. He's drawn terribly but it wouldn't shock me to see him run a very improved race at big odds. (14) Bill The Bee won nicely at The Valley last start and can repeat that here. (8) Maliseet should go forward and give a sight, while Craig Williams jumps on (10) Donndubhan who continues to race well.
