Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, April 25th.
ANZAC Day racing takes place at headquarters in Melbourne this Saturday, with an eight-race card at Flemington! The ANZAC Day Stakes and VRC St Leger headline the program.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, April 25th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (1) Vow And Declare
Best Value: Race 8 - (9) Hang Man
What a tough race to kick things off, with any number of winning hopes. (3) Diala was a good result for us first up when leading all the way at Caulfield. That backed up some good jumpouts at Flemington. The day she won at Caulfield turned out to be a very on-paced favoured day in the wet, so it's hard to get a guide on just how good her performance might have been, but she has come back well from her spell and shoul give another good sight here. (5) Flying Award has run 2nd in both career starts and getting to Flemington probably helps him. He'll have plenty of time to wind up from back in the field, which is where he's likely going to land from barrier 9. He should be right in the finish on what we've seen. (11) Wyld Savanna was given a barrier trial on debut at Mornington. Apprentice Campbell Rawiller rode her, she was taken to the rear, stayed on the inside and ran up backsides all straight. Craig Williams goes straight on now and she looks a decent chance at $7.00. (2) Itzhot absolutely shouldn't be $18. He beat Flying Award last start and although he gives him a 1.5kg weight swing, he shouldn't be more than three times his price. Chances don't end there.
Another really good race. (7) Lamu is a French import that ran a bottler on her Australian debut, working home strongly over 1300m on the Lakeside course at Sandown to be beaten a length. On that occasion, she drew barrier 13 and was ridden by apprentice Lucy Doodt. Today, she gets Craig Williams from barrier 1, so expect her to take a more forward position. The rise in distance is an obvious plus and you'd think she's got imrovement to come. She shapes as a great chance here but she faces stiff competition. (3) Naivasha was a last-start winner on the same day as Lamu ran at Sandown Lakeside. Her win came over the mile, where (12) Nerve Not Verve was 0.5L back in 3rd. Naivasha has improved under Danny O'Brien's care this prep and Damien Oliver sticks with her from a good draw and she has won third up previously, so she rates well again. Nerve Not Verve was brave in that race considering she was only first up. She could roll forward again from out wide and Mike Moroney's stable is flying so if she improves, they'll find it tough to get past her. Lamu did run a better final 200m, 400m and 600m than those two fillies on the same day though. (6) Extreme Pride is the second of Danny O'Brien's runners and she ran well first up without winning. She always needs her first up run though, with no placings from four starts. But she does improve second up and she won at this stage of her last prep. She's undefeated over the mile and isn't without claims at all.
This is a very hard race to work out. (1) Run To Perfection debuts for Danny O'Brien here having previously raced in New Zealand. He brings some pretty strong form to the race having run 2nd to Catalyst back in New Zealand, and he could go to the next level under O'Brien's care. But he carries 61kg here, 4kg more than any other horse in the race. (4) Kooweerup ran well first up, recording the fastest 400-200m split of the entire meeting, and the second-fastest final 200m of the race, which was 0.02secs off the fastest (which was the second-fastest of the entire meeting). So his figures stack up. (5) Oasis Girl was poor first up but the tongue tie went on last start and it made all the difference, as she led all the way to score at Caulfield. It did turn out that was the spot to be throughout the day but she's got plenty of ability and really should have more wins to her name than she does. Tactics will be interesting with her given she surprisingly led last start and is drawn awkward in barrier 9 here. (11) Heyington Station was given no chance last start with a poor ride but his first up run in a very strong form race was good. Phillip Stokes doesn't have a good record at Flemington which is the query. Hard to know how to play this race but I'll take the $5.00 for Oasis Girl and also the $6.50 for Kooweerup. Terrified of the top weight.
Value: (4) Kooweerup $6.50
The even money could turn out to be a gift here with (1) Vow And Declare, who is surely thrown in at the weights. He ran 3rd first up in the Australian Cup before finishing down the track in the Queen Elizabeth last start, but he probably didn't go as well on the heavy ground, and that Queen Elizabeth was an exceptionally strong race in my opinion. Back heavily in grade here, up to a suitable distance now, third up which is of course when he won the Melbourne Cup last prep, all he has to do is turn up at somewhere near 100% and he'll win. (6) Mirimar comes off a last-start win over 2400m and the rise in distance isn't any trouble for him. He's an out-and-out stayer, wtih four of his five career wins coming over 2400m. If anything, he probably wants a wetter track. Chris Waller's two runners can provide the value. (5) Gayitri should improve back onto firm ground and her form prior to her last run was good, while (12) Humbolt Current gets the blinkers on and returns to firm ground, which is what his four career wins have all been on. (8) Jack Regan is flying, as is the stable, but his form at Flemington prior to today has been poor.
(1) Vow And Declare
$2.00
Going to forgive (9) Tooradin for his sub-par showing last start, which was his first go on hevay ground, on a day where you needed to basically lead at Caulfield. He started favourite that day so respect his SP profile from that race and give him another go at the $6.50 we're getting today. The horse that won that race was (2) The Lifeline, who he meets again today and is likely to be the one to catch. He should find the lead from barrier 8 and prove very hard to get past once again, and $4.50 isn't a bad price about him at all. (2) Betcha Flying has had an odd prep. She started in Sydney, then came to Melbourne, then back to Sydney, and now back to Melbourne again. On top of that, she's been up to 2000m and now back to 1700m. If there's one trainer who can freshen them up and drop them back from 2000m to 1700m, it's Waller, so that part isn't such a big negative, but it's an odd set up nonetheless. She was beaten a lip here in her only start at the track, back in Cup week over 1400m. The form behind Colette is certainly very good and prior to that she was only beaten 2.75L by Paradee. Williams goes on and while I won't be backing her, I concede she's a chance.
I was on (3) Coin Collector last start and I'm going to stick with her today as she gets two big positives, drawing barrier 1 and getting Damien Oliver aboard. I think she's got a pretty sharp turn of foot and that could come in handy. He got pushed wide early at Caulfield last start and was left a sitting duck. That won't be the case here from barrier 1, Oliver can be patient and look for gaps, so he won't be left in front a long way out. (2) Royal Crown was the winner of that race at Caulfield last start and it was a good staying effort. He ran down Coin Collector and fought them all off in the straight. He also took off a fair way from home and it was a solid staying effort so the extra distance shouldn't be an issue. Flemington should suit his racing pattern and he rates as the one to beat. (4) Sacramento is Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott's runner this year. They've won this race the past two years so Sacramento deserves plenty of respect. He led and ran 5th in the Australian Derby in Sydney last start, but was beaten a long way. Back onto firmer ground will suit him but the query is how much of a gutbuster last start was. We know what the tactics will be on him. (12) Lindelani is a blowout chance.
If (1) The Inevitable turns up at his best here, this race is as good as over. He drops back from running in the G1 Newmarket Handicap first up, where he was well beaten, but it's worth noting he started single figures. He's now in the care of Patrick Payne, who I love as a trainer. He drops back to 1000m, his only win over this track and distance was a win, he's undefeated second up, gets a very useful claim for Tahlia Hope, and if he's at 100% he'll be winning this. (12) Prezado should appreciate getting back to the Flemington straight, where he races best. His past two efforts have been terrible but prior to that he put in two good runs down the straight. (13) Esperance resumes with the tongue tie on for the first time. His form from last prep behind the likes of Halvorsen and Bold Star is very good and he does get a 4kg pull in the weights on The Inevitable. He looks the logical danger. (7) Milwaukee not hopeless, and (2) Malibu Style's has never finished out of the money in his five starts in Melbourne when third up from a spell.
There's two I'm keen to back to close out the day here, but it's a very open and competitive race. (11) Rupture comes up favourite and he comes into this off a first-up win in the Warracknabeal Cup carrying 61kg. He probably needs to improve on that given he only beat Vungers, who has been running around in midweek BM70-78s. That's not super strong form for a Saturday race. So while Rupture certainly can improve on his first up run, especially fitness-wise, he looks short enough at $4.20. I backed (9) Hang Man first up and I'm going to back him again here. He should have gone close to winning second up last prep over this same track and distance. Soft draw, firm ground suits and Mike Moroney's stable is flying, so I'll take a piece of the $11 on offer. I'd keep a very close eye on (6) Kaonic in the market. He did nothing first up but he put in a similar run first up last prep before coming out and running 4th in G3 company, where he probably should have finished closer. He's got a decent second up record overall and Mark Zahra goes straight on. He draws well in barrier 4 and I'd be including him in everything at $14. (7) Super Titus finished his race off very well last start on an unsuitable track, where you had to be up on speed at Caulfield. The little query is he won first up last prep and then failed third up as favourite. (17) Dadoozdart is the one I expect to probably start favourite. It wouldn't surprise me if he was very heavily backed. He's on his Australian debut for the Hawkes stable, having previously raced in the UK. He won on debut over 1000m but has since only won past 2000m. He resumes as a gelding here and with two jumpouts under the belt, which were pretty good without setting the world on fire. They were only quiet. He's never raced on firm ground which has to be a query, particularly as Flemington can get quite firm late in the day. He's a hard one to line up but I'll take him on first up here.
