Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, February 15th.
It's Black Caviar Lightning Stakes day at headquarters in Melbourne, with the G1 feature headlining a nine-race card at Flemington!
Check out our preview, tips and best bets for a big day of racing below!
Flemington Racing Tips: 2020 Lightning Stakes Day
Best Bet: Race 3 - (3) Mr Cashman
Best Value: Race 9 - (3) Rox The Castle
(8) Mount Tabora was a good winner at Sandown Lakeside two starts back before going down by a nose to Sure Knee at Caulfield last start. That was over the mile so he'd only have to repeat that effort to be very competitive here and he should be able to improve given he's still only thre runs into his prep. (5) Exasperate beat Street Sheikh last start at Caulfield which is very solid form. He's a five-time winner at the mile so deserves respect. (7) Sunday Pray continues to run well without winning and once again rates as a place chance. (3) Over Exposure should find this easier than what he's been facing ijn Queensland recently.
Sticking with (9) Goldifox who won here over 1400m two starts ago before being beaten less than a length at Sandown Lakeside three weeks ago. That race has already produced three subsequent winners so the form is very strong, and Goldifox's last 600m was the fastest of the entire meeting (32.80sec). Should be hard to beat today. (10) Global Sanction might not have the class but she's over the odds regardless. She ran the third-fastest final 600m of the meeting first up at Sandown over an unsuitable distance, and her final 200m split was the second best in the race. Up to the mile suits, she's got a terrific second up record and should be more competitive today at big odds. (1) Paint The Town Two is racing in good form and has a terrific record at this distance.
Value: (10) Global Sanction $21
Pretty keen on the Patrick Payne/Billy Egan combo here with (3) Mr Cashman, who was an impressive winner on debut at Moonee Valley seven weeks ago. I think they're on a path to Sydney with this horse and rate him pretty highly. I'd be surprised if he couldn't measure up here. (15) River Night draws the inside down the straight which is never ideal, but the form out of her one career start is pretty hot. She was beaten 1.85L on debut by Hanseatic, who of course has only gone from strength to strength since then. She's an attractive price at $7.50. (8) Toscanini has had two runs and both have been sneakily good. He worked home strongly on debut at Geelong before again hitting the line nicely behind Hanseatic last time out. Can be included at double figure odds. (14) Award Winner obviously the scary horse with blinkers on for the first time.
Value: (15) River Night $7.50
Tricky race. (9) Classic Wei Wei went close in an easier race here two starts back before racing in restricted room last time out at The Valley. Up to 2000m now suits, he draws for a nice run one off the rail and based on his effort two starts back, he should be competitive. (4) Royal Music hasn't done much in his first two starts back from a break but he's got a good third up record and could be the big improver today. (5) Dondubhan might just struggle seeing out 2000m but he's absolutely flying this prep and just continues to show up and race well. (8) Skelm will go back from the barrier which is the main concern, but he'll be hitting the line strongly.
Value: (4) Royal Music $21
(9) Classic Wei Wei
$5.50
The race of the day! I'm going with the Kiwi (1) Catalyst here who is a winner of six of his seven career starts. His first up win over 1200m carrying 60.5kg was absolutely enormous. He rattled off a 32.90sec final 600m to come from last and round them up in the blink of an eye. You'd think he's only going to improve with the step up in distance and with the run under the belt. The query is he's going to have to come from last in a race lacking tempo, and he's obviously got a very good horse to try and run down up front. (3) Alligator Blood is the horse I refer to and he's a winner of eight of his nine career starts, the only defeat being a 0.1L 2nd in the Guineas to Super Seth. The intention with him is to lead from barrier 1. I suspect that's the right move as it takes luck out of the equation. He can control the race rather than risk getting bottled up on the fence and losing momentum. On a Flemington track that might play on the quick side, he obviously gets a race shape that suits him better than Catalyst so he'll be extremely hard to run down. (4) Dalasan is the forgotten horse in all this. He started even money first up when he was given no chance of beating Super Seth. If you look back to last prep, he was only beaten 0.75L by Alligator Blood, and he gets a weight swing in his favour today, so he's certainly not without a chance. (5) Soul Patch was enormous first up last prep, while (8) Chenier is the unknown in the race. His debut win was awesome but he failed at his second start and hasn't been seen since, which was 44 weeks ago.
(10) Montenegro Man was a good winner over Bam's On Fire two starts back at Caulfield before running 2nd to Lord Von Costa last time out here at Flemington. He's come back in super order this prep and there's no reason he can't run very well again here with Brett Prebble taking over. (4) Sirius Suspect was only beaten narrowly first up over 1100m here and he tends to improve second up from a spell. All five career wins have been at this distance so the step up to 1200m is ideal and he's in this race up to his ears. (8) Big Night Out might need 1400m but is certainly capable of running well fresh over the shorter trip.
Value: (4) Sirius Suspect $5.50
(10) Montenegro Man
$4.60
$1.45 for (2) Nature Strip here in the G1 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes. He's four from four at Flemington and has trialled up enormous as he typically does. It will be a fascinating tactical battle because while he's naturally quicker than any other horse in the race, if he's allowed to crawl up front like he did in the Darley Classic, he'll produce a similar result. But I wouldn't be surprised if he copped some pressure up front from the likes of (1) Redzel. Redzel is a horse that can absorb that pressure up front, while Nature Strip has proven in the past that he struggles to see out his races when he gets put under the pump early on. Redzel has run top-two in nine of his 10 starts when first up and the same stat applies for his record at the distance. If he does soften Nature Strip up, it wouldn't shock me to see a boilover. (7) Loving Gaby could be the beneficiary of that as she'll be sitting right behind them waiting to strike. She's undefeated first up and gets weight off the other two. We've seen just how dominant the three-year-olds have been in these kinds of races recently. (4) Gytrash is undefeated down the straight and has gone to a new level in recent starts. He's only a 4YO so he's still got improvement to come. He's a real smokey at double figure odds.
Whether she's tuned up for this first up from a spell is the huge query, but I've got a lot of time for (2) Fascino and her best form would be very competitive in this. She's struggled at 1400m in the past but her one start at this distance last prep was a luckless 4th, where she should have gone close to winning. She's a big price, but she's got the quality to win this if she's fit enough. (1) Pretty Brazen was last seen winning the G2 Sandown Guineas. If she brought that sort of form here first up she'd obviously be very tough to beat. (5) Meuse only won a BM64 first up, but it was over 1100m and she really picked up late in the race to win, so the step up to 1400m second up should be much more suitable. She's got plenty of talent and can measure up. Wouldn't be diving into $2.60 about (9) Katalin coming into this off an easy win as the odds-on favourite at Newcastle.
Pretty keen on (3) Rox The Castle each way here at $11. He was beaten at Sale first up but I think he's much better suited second up at 1400m on a firm deck. He's got a terrific record second up and he's got four wins and two 2nds from six starts at the distance. in fact, he's undefeated at this track and distance. He's also got six wins from 10 starts on good ground. He looks a really solid each way bet at the double figure odds. (2) Admiral's Joker did beat him last preparation and he comes here on the quick backup after being beaten 2.25L by Anaheed over 1100m last weekend. This is an easier race for him and he should go close to winning. (5) Blazejowski won first up down the straight and now steps up to 1400m second up. His form since the start of last prep has been outstanding so expect him to run another bold race, while (12) Star Missile is on an All Star Mile path and resumes here. He's undefeated from three starts at the distance and his win first up last prep was enormous, sitting wide without cover with 60.5kg. He goes on top.
Value: (3) Rox The Castle $11
