Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, February 29th.
The Group 1 Australian Guineas headlines racing at headquarters in Melbourne today, with another fascinating clash between some of Australia and New Zealand's best three-year-olds!
Check out our preview and betting tips for every race on the card here!
Flemington Racing Tips: 2020 Australian Guineas Day
Best Bet: Race 4 - (2) Sylvia's Mother
Best Value: Race 9 - (8) Kings Brook / (13) I Got You
Every man and their dog at Caulfield has been spruiking (4) Diamond Effort here after her scintillating first up win by 4L on her home track. She's won second up before and the four weeks between races should ensure she's nice and fresh for this. It's not a difficult race so as long as she handles the straight course for the first time, she should be winning again. (7) Des Moines looks the logical danger first up from a spell. Last time she raced he was beaten 2L by Gytrash, and we know how strong that form is. She was unlucky on that occasion too, and she's got experience down the straight. Hard to see her beating the favourite though.
Chris Waller holds a very strong hand here with three of the top four runners in betting. You can put a line through the run of (3) High Bridge last start at Caulfield, where it rained heavily and forced a downgrade of the track to a Soft 6. I know his stats say he has six wins on soft ground, but he just doesn't go on wet tracks in Australia. All of his soft track wins came in England, with four of them being hurdle races. He needs firm tracks to show his best over here, so the good ground he'll get should see him bounce back to form. Stablemate (2) Dabiyr is much more lightly-raced and he comes off a sound win at Moonee Valley in the Listed Tourney Night Cup. He'll go close again. (7) Beau Balmain is one at big odds to throw in. He's better than his form suggests and he needs this sort of distance to show his best.
(11) River Night had excuses when well supported in the betting first up. She got her tongue back during the race and choked down, so with the application of the tongue tie today, we should see sharp improvement. Her debut run behind Hanseatic was eye-catching, when running home strongly from back in the field to finish 3rd. That form has obviously proved very strong, so I'd expect to see her run a big race today.(6) Unstoppabelle drops back from the Blue Diamond Preude for fillies, where she didn't get much luck. She was held up at a crucial stage, but her runs previous to that would see her be competitive here. (4) Time Is Precious won well on debut and the form out of the race is good. Can run well, while the early money has all been for the Eurell/Olive rrunner (3) Ilovemyself.
(2) Sylvia's Mother could be one of the best bets of the day here. The main query with her is the step up to 1400m for the first time in her career, but she resumed with a win over 1200m and is undefeated from three starts when second up from a spell. With barrier 1 over 1400m, she may be able to settle closer to the pace and with even luck, she looks the most likely winner. (1) Spanish Whisper notably resumes over 1400m rather than 1200m today. She actually split Pippie and Sylvia's Mother over 1200m first up last prep. She then went on to win in G2 company second up at this track and distance. Whether she's at her peak fresh is the query but I think the $7.00 about her is a good price. (6) Fidelia didn't get a lot of luck first up and this is her pet track so she can improve, while the knockout could be (10) Cryptic Jewel who really caught the eye first up at Sandown.
Value: (1) Spanish Whisper $7.00
(2) Sylvia's Mother
$2.70
(1) Age Of Chivalry looks well placed here second up at 1400m in G3 company. He's a G1 placegetter, albeit in handicap company with a light weight, but he still has plenty of class and this is his pet distance. He's run 2nd in both starts at this track and distance, he should roll forward from the gate and give a big sight. (4) Yulong January has been freshened up for this after suffering his first defeat in five starts last time out. He's won two from three at the track and distance and is racing in terrific form so has to be included. (7) Morvada was the horse that beat Yulong January last start and even though there is a 2kg swing in the weights today, I don't think that's reason enough for him to be $5.50 when Yulong January is $3.30. (6) Blazejowski is well placed and is undefeated third up from a spell, but does he prefer it wet?
(1) Age Of Chivalry
$3.45
This is a terrific little Listed race! Very excited to see the WA mare (6) Fabergino make her Eastern States debut. There's one way to ride her and that's handlebars down from the outset. We've seen the WA form stack up very strongly in Melbourne and this could be another example because she might just run them off their legs. The straight for the first time is of course the major query, and hopefully Jordan Childs doesn't try to hold her up. (2) Haunted is probably better suited over a bit further but he's undefeated from three starts when first up from a spell. (3) William Thomas has won three from four when first up, he's another that might just like it slightly further than 1000m but he flies fresh. (7) Gift Of Power has never finished out of the top two from five attempts when first up from a spell, so she can be included at double figure odds. (8) Embrace Me drops in class and has had no luck in two starts this campaign, while (4) God Of Thunder won first up in Sydney and has a great record at the distance. What a race!
Race 7 - G1 Australian Guineas (Market)
The feature of the day, and what a great race it is. Realistically, if you're betting into the race, you need to take on one of the two favourites. (1) Alligator Blood has plenty of people wanting to take him on leading into this, and while I'll be doing the same, I think it's hard to pot him. He's won nine of his 10 starts and his only defeat was by a nose. I don't think we'll see him leading today - I think he'll box seat and with even luck, it's certain he'll be in the finish. We also won't see (4) Catalyst ridden upside down to beat him today. From barrier 4 he should be able to land one out, one back, and he's got the whole Flemington straight to build this time. I think he can turn the tables on Alligator Blood, especially as he's set to be peaking third up here. (6) Superstorm is the one they've all overlooked. He's a WA horse coming across after a good first up win in Perth. He ran 4th in the G1 Kingston Town Classic back in December, and that was when he was very raw. He's a bit more furnished now, and again, the WA form has proven to hold up over East. (3) Alabama Express should find an easy lead here, which gives him his chance to back up his victory in the CF Orr Stakes. (7) Chenier did a good job to finish as close as he did to Alligator Blood and Catalyst first up from a long time out. He'll be fitter here and that gives him his chance to turn the tables. He's certainly got class. (5) Soul Patch hit the line well behind Alligator Blood and Catalyst first up, he might need longer still but he did win second up last prep.
A rare Group 2 where there's nothing in the race I want to back. I think there's plenty of question marks against a number of these horses. (5) Ringerdingding always runs flat second up so if you look past his disappointing effort last start, the $8.50 might be a decent bet if you look at his first up run in the Australia Stakes. He's only ever placed once from three starts when third up, so he might run poorly again, but I'd rather back him at those odds than something like Fifty Stars as favourite. (7) Night's Watch is another horse that's had his fair share of chances, but he does drop in grade and get the blinkers on for the first time in his career.(9) Galaxy Raider steps uip sharply in grade but he's flying.
Four horses to highlight here. (7) Chicago Cub is racing well, winning two of his past three starts, both of which were at this track and distance. He rises in grade but drops in weight and should be competitive again. (8) Kings Brook didn't come up last preparation. She was ordinary in all three of her starts. She returns from a spell here and Damien Oliver is booked to ride which really catches the eye. She had one jumpout 10 days ago at Balnarring, which was kind of hard to get a gauge on given she stuck to the inside away from the other horses, but I thought she looked good going to the line. Her old form would probably see her winning this so the double figures on offer appeals. (11) Big Night Out ran well first up for 4th. He ran a similar race first up last prep before coming out and winning second up, so he rates as the one to beat. (13) I Got You can be thrown in at big odds. He had no luck whatsoever first up at Moonee Valley and gets the blinkers on for the first time today. Up in grade but drops to 52kg and he did run 4th behind some good horses in Sydney second up last prep.
Value: (8) Kings Brook $12 & (13) I Got You $21
